As batteries last longer...
Discussion
Just thinking...
As battery degradation improves over the short-term through R&D until the breakthrough "100% forever" solution is found, or at least a major breakthrough staving off the problem of all the current EVs nobody (with a brain and a calculator) wants second hand, what effect will this have on used pieces of those manufactured over the last ten years?
I'm guessing they'd move from almost valueless currently to... zero value.
Even with slow progress on charge retention development it seems that millions of EVs produced over the last ten years will be put on the scrap heap as newer models boasting better battery life come along.
This happens with any "white goods" as they're developed but cars are quite large and mineral grabbing. Sure, there's recycling of the minerals to some extent but who's to say the same minerals will be in demand for future battery iterations, i.e. lithium.
Apart from solid state batteries, what's the likely direction batteries will take?
I thought combining air and water to make petrol was absolutely amazing. Is there a similar magic trick around the corner in battery tech?
As battery degradation improves over the short-term through R&D until the breakthrough "100% forever" solution is found, or at least a major breakthrough staving off the problem of all the current EVs nobody (with a brain and a calculator) wants second hand, what effect will this have on used pieces of those manufactured over the last ten years?
I'm guessing they'd move from almost valueless currently to... zero value.
Even with slow progress on charge retention development it seems that millions of EVs produced over the last ten years will be put on the scrap heap as newer models boasting better battery life come along.
This happens with any "white goods" as they're developed but cars are quite large and mineral grabbing. Sure, there's recycling of the minerals to some extent but who's to say the same minerals will be in demand for future battery iterations, i.e. lithium.
Apart from solid state batteries, what's the likely direction batteries will take?
I thought combining air and water to make petrol was absolutely amazing. Is there a similar magic trick around the corner in battery tech?
Would it not be better to post some evidence based facts rather than some rather weak and incorrect assertions.
It becomes tedious needing to continually repudiate these.
Plenty second hand EVs changing hands although supply is limited. None have zero value.
It becomes tedious needing to continually repudiate these.
Plenty second hand EVs changing hands although supply is limited. None have zero value.
Edited by Nomme de Plum on Monday 7th October 18:16
The current batteries already have very low rates of degradation such that they can be expected to outlast the cars that house them. Even if they get down to 80% capacity, that will still be very useable in the 2nd or 3rd owners hands. So they will work their way down the food chain just as ICE cars do.
The difference is that the batteries once truly end of life will be able to be recycled (accepting that if the chemistry changes there may not be a market for those particular minerals of course.) Some will also find their way into grid storage where energy density is unimportant.
So no, it is unlikely that the cars will suddenly become worthless, in fact it is likely that used EV's will have a longer useful lifespan than ICE cars as they won't generally need expensive maintenance in the same way as smokey old internal combustion engines.
If your 300 mile range EV does everything you need from it now, someone bringing out a 500 miles version doesn't make it any less useful to you does it?
If you home charge 95% of the time (which is why most early adopters bought EV's remember), the fact that the public DC recharging time of a new EV is 5 minutes rather than your 20 minutes doesn't make your EV useless as you hardly every use public charging, does it?
All those die hard shedders keeping old ICE cars going because they like them and they have already depreciated. The same applies to EV's except that they will perform better for longer than old ICE cars.
The difference is that the batteries once truly end of life will be able to be recycled (accepting that if the chemistry changes there may not be a market for those particular minerals of course.) Some will also find their way into grid storage where energy density is unimportant.
So no, it is unlikely that the cars will suddenly become worthless, in fact it is likely that used EV's will have a longer useful lifespan than ICE cars as they won't generally need expensive maintenance in the same way as smokey old internal combustion engines.
If your 300 mile range EV does everything you need from it now, someone bringing out a 500 miles version doesn't make it any less useful to you does it?
If you home charge 95% of the time (which is why most early adopters bought EV's remember), the fact that the public DC recharging time of a new EV is 5 minutes rather than your 20 minutes doesn't make your EV useless as you hardly every use public charging, does it?
All those die hard shedders keeping old ICE cars going because they like them and they have already depreciated. The same applies to EV's except that they will perform better for longer than old ICE cars.
Interesting question.
I was having a little think about this today around the lifetime of cars and as new tech comes along.
I think pricing will play a heavy part in dictating how the market evolves. If we follow the train of thought then as newer better EVs come on-board then they will be "new price".
The trickle down effect on older cars will probably start to bite prices down but its going to take time for people to want or afford a new car. So I would expect a gradual transition and I suspect manufacturers may control market stimulation.
So just because the latest I phone is out doesnt mean that I can afford to buy one right?
I think the real step change could be solid state or at least a sub 10 minute charging time for what - 400 miles - thats arbitary BTW - its PH so we need 2000 + the ability to tow our donkeys in comfort while never stopping for 465 hours.
Hypothetically I wonder if the market will grow for modifying battery packs as well, swapping them out for higher capacity or better tech.
Whether cars are that modular (software and hardware would need to be adapted is another story). But I tell you what if a 3rd party can find a way to retrofit new battery tech when your EV is say 5 years old then.....
Also in reference to zero value - have a look for original EVs or ICE cars that were the start of a change, they still have value. Just because some people want them to, wont make them disappear.
I was having a little think about this today around the lifetime of cars and as new tech comes along.
I think pricing will play a heavy part in dictating how the market evolves. If we follow the train of thought then as newer better EVs come on-board then they will be "new price".
The trickle down effect on older cars will probably start to bite prices down but its going to take time for people to want or afford a new car. So I would expect a gradual transition and I suspect manufacturers may control market stimulation.
So just because the latest I phone is out doesnt mean that I can afford to buy one right?
I think the real step change could be solid state or at least a sub 10 minute charging time for what - 400 miles - thats arbitary BTW - its PH so we need 2000 + the ability to tow our donkeys in comfort while never stopping for 465 hours.
Hypothetically I wonder if the market will grow for modifying battery packs as well, swapping them out for higher capacity or better tech.
Whether cars are that modular (software and hardware would need to be adapted is another story). But I tell you what if a 3rd party can find a way to retrofit new battery tech when your EV is say 5 years old then.....
Also in reference to zero value - have a look for original EVs or ICE cars that were the start of a change, they still have value. Just because some people want them to, wont make them disappear.
There is still a huge percentage of the population that dont need a huge range, the average UK drive is something like 30 miles a day.
So if an EV that is new now has a range of 300 miles, IF and its a pretty big if these days, looses anything substantially over ten years, its still going to be around the 250 mark.
That will be more than ample for the demographic that are most likely to be buying a ten year old car.
So if an EV that is new now has a range of 300 miles, IF and its a pretty big if these days, looses anything substantially over ten years, its still going to be around the 250 mark.
That will be more than ample for the demographic that are most likely to be buying a ten year old car.
When EVs hit 51% of cars on the road won't all ICE cars have zero value with every Town and City introducing zero tailpipe emission zones and every Council car park whacking a punitive excess parking charge per hour for ICE?
I like this making up bollicks and posting it (although here in Bath we already have emission based parking charges. Plus current Gov likely to green light more ULEZ+ and speed up the fuel duty escalator...).
Just sold my diesel Ford Focus utility car after 16 years of ownership from new as too costly to drive into Bristol (plus it had never had a replacement cam belt so borrowed time etc).
Going by all the evidence being reported I suspect I'll keep its EV replacement for a similar time, by which time the battery will be nearing 50% of its capacity when new.
I suspect they'll both have a similar value.
I like this making up bollicks and posting it (although here in Bath we already have emission based parking charges. Plus current Gov likely to green light more ULEZ+ and speed up the fuel duty escalator...).
Just sold my diesel Ford Focus utility car after 16 years of ownership from new as too costly to drive into Bristol (plus it had never had a replacement cam belt so borrowed time etc).
Going by all the evidence being reported I suspect I'll keep its EV replacement for a similar time, by which time the battery will be nearing 50% of its capacity when new.
I suspect they'll both have a similar value.
Spare parts for ev like old cars soon get discontinued or become expensive to the point it makes more sense to scrap the car. Until EV numbers increase there will always be the issue of uneconomical repair. The average ICE lasts 17 years according to statistics and my Mercedes is that age and it hard to get many non maintenance spares.
peterfield781 said:
Oh yes Telegraph. Pitiful you would use that as a source of evidence. My C Class ICE to a much more rapid BMW EV . Minus £30 per annum. Mid low £300s
Maintenance way lower and less than 3p per mile 'fuel'. No contest.
Edited by Nomme de Plum on Monday 7th October 19:52
ashenfie said:
Spare parts for ev like old cars soon get discontinued or become expensive to the point it makes more sense to scrap the car. Until EV numbers increase there will always be the issue of uneconomical repair. The average ICE lasts 17 years according to statistics and my Mercedes is that age and it hard to get many non maintenance spares.
Less parts equals less maintenance. What is it that EVs need as ' A repair' EV wins hands down.
EV Numbers will have increased by the time it matters.
Gary C said:
Surely there will be a market for replacement batteries eventually (assuming new tech arrives that is smaller, lighter and cheaper than current units)
You could make the same argument about fitting more economical modern internal combustion engines to older cars, but except for a few very high-priced "restomod" type vehicles, it's just not commercially viable. Mostly, old mainstream cars are worth too little to be worth spending that much money on. There's no reason to believe that EV batteries wont still be perfectly usable, albeit with slightly reduced range, at 15+ years old and who's going to pay even £5k to install a new upgraded battery into a 15 year-old ID3 or whatever? Just like with current ICE vehicles, the cars will get used until a repair bill comes along which is worth more than the car, then scrapped (or in the case of batteries, probably recycled).
Edited by kambites on Monday 7th October 20:03
What are you on about? Where are all these valueless Tesla's?
The batteries will last a few decades atleast and their 'engines' have one moving part over the abomination that is a modern ICE.
I know which one makes the better used car ownership proposition for the vast majority of people.
The batteries will last a few decades atleast and their 'engines' have one moving part over the abomination that is a modern ICE.
I know which one makes the better used car ownership proposition for the vast majority of people.
Nomme de Plum said:
peterfield781 said:
Oh yes Telegraph. Pitiful you would use that as a source of evidence. My C Class ICE to a much more rapid BMW EV . Minus £30 per annum. Mid low £300s
Maintenance way lower and less than 3p per mile 'fuel'. No contest.
Edited by Nomme de Plum on Monday 7th October 19:52
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct...
ChocolateFrog said:
What are you on about? Where are all these valueless Tesla's?
The batteries will last a few decades atleast and their 'engines' have one moving part over the abomination that is a modern ICE.
I know which one makes the better used car ownership proposition for the vast majority of people.
Have you not noticed the OP has not responded. The batteries will last a few decades atleast and their 'engines' have one moving part over the abomination that is a modern ICE.
I know which one makes the better used car ownership proposition for the vast majority of people.
Very typical approach from some . - Talk nonsense and run away.
Glad he's not my F.A.
Gary C said:
Surely there will be a market for replacement batteries eventually (assuming new tech arrives that is smaller, lighter and cheaper than current units)
There is already an active market for replacement and damaged batteries. I used to buy quite a few for a recycling company. There's a way to go still but it's getting there. Transporting them is the trickier partpeterfield781 said:
Nomme de Plum said:
peterfield781 said:
Oh yes Telegraph. Pitiful you would use that as a source of evidence. My C Class ICE to a much more rapid BMW EV . Minus £30 per annum. Mid low £300s
Maintenance way lower and less than 3p per mile 'fuel'. No contest.
Edited by Nomme de Plum on Monday 7th October 19:52
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct...
https://www.zap-map.com/live/
Average annual mileage less that 7,500 and average journey 20 miles.
I don't even need to think about 'refuelling' now. It's always full.
Anyway this thread is about Battery longevity so once again your way off the mark.
kambites said:
Gary C said:
Surely there will be a market for replacement batteries eventually (assuming new tech arrives that is smaller, lighter and cheaper than current units)
You could make the same argument about fitting more economical modern internal combustion engines to older cars, but except for a few very high-priced "restomod" type vehicles, it's just not commercially viable. Mostly, old mainstream cars are worth too little to be worth spending that much money on. There's no reason to believe that EV batteries wont still be perfectly usable, albeit with slightly reduced range, at 15+ years old and who's going to pay even £5k to install a new upgraded battery into a 15 year-old ID3 or whatever? Just like with current ICE vehicles, the cars will get used until a repair bill comes along which is worth more than the car, then scrapped (or in the case of batteries, probably recycled).
Edited by kambites on Monday 7th October 20:03
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