Volvo give up plans to sell all electric cars by 2030
Discussion
Volvo are a relatively small car manufacturer. 700K per annum and are part of Geely.
Tesla already outsell them 2.5 to 1, Ford well over 4M , BMW 2.5M Mercedes 2M. BYD are already over 3M annually. Whether they exist in 2035 is debatable but won't really make much difference to the automotive industry in general either way.
Tesla already outsell them 2.5 to 1, Ford well over 4M , BMW 2.5M Mercedes 2M. BYD are already over 3M annually. Whether they exist in 2035 is debatable but won't really make much difference to the automotive industry in general either way.
Nomme de Plum said:
Volvo are a relatively small car manufacturer. 700K per annum and are part of Geely.
Tesla already outsell them 2.5 to 1, Ford well over 4M , BMW 2.5M Mercedes 2M. BYD are already over 3M annually. Whether they exist in 2035 is debatable but won't really make much difference to the automotive industry in general either way.
Tesla outsell Lamborghini, not sure what that has to do with anything?Tesla already outsell them 2.5 to 1, Ford well over 4M , BMW 2.5M Mercedes 2M. BYD are already over 3M annually. Whether they exist in 2035 is debatable but won't really make much difference to the automotive industry in general either way.
We only focus on the 2030/2035 final date.
Before then there are a number of govt mandated sales targets, which ramp up to the 2030/35 date, eg. 22% sold must be EV in 2024, 28% next year, 33% in 2026, 38% in 2028 etc. (these are based on the previous 2035 date).
And Augusts sales: https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4354223/strong-...
they've already hit their 2024 figures.
As others wiser than me have said, this is happening whether we like it or not.
Before then there are a number of govt mandated sales targets, which ramp up to the 2030/35 date, eg. 22% sold must be EV in 2024, 28% next year, 33% in 2026, 38% in 2028 etc. (these are based on the previous 2035 date).
And Augusts sales: https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4354223/strong-...
they've already hit their 2024 figures.
As others wiser than me have said, this is happening whether we like it or not.
phil4 said:
they've already hit their 2024 figures.
I believe that firstly each manufacturer has to individually meet the 22% number so the market average isn't particularly useful for an individual manufacturer, and secondly the requirement is for the whole year not just the later months of the year. YTD, only 19ish% of new car registrations in the UK have been EVs which means that for the market as a whole to hit 22% for the whole year, the last third of the year will need to average around 30% ZEV. Manufacturers can trade off below-target CO2 emissions in their ICE vehicles against the proportion of ZEVs they sell, although I'm not exactly sure in what proportions. They can also do weird things like trading having beaten the target last year against missing it this year, essentially building up credit to use against future years, which makes the whole thing even more complicated.
I believe it is also possible for manufacturers to "trade" parts of their allowance with other manufacturers, but because the government fines for non-compliance are so high, that's going to be put the more ZEV-heavy manufacturers like Tesla and MG in a hugely strong negotiating position against their rivals.
kambites said:
I believe that firstly each manufacturer has to individually meet the 22% number so the market average isn't particularly useful for an individual manufacturer, and secondly the requirement is for the whole year not just the later months of the year. YTD, only 19ish% of new car registrations in the UK have been EVs which means that for the market as a whole to hit 22% for the whole year, the last third of the year will need to average around 30% ZEV.
Manufacturers can trade off below-target CO2 emissions in their ICE vehicles against the proportion of ZEVs they sell, although I'm not exactly sure in what proportions. They can also do weird things like trading having beaten the target last year against missing it this year, essentially building up credit to use against future years, which makes the whole thing even more complicated.
I believe it is also possible for manufacturers to "trade" parts of their allowance with other manufacturers, but because the government fines for non-compliance are so high, that's going to be put the more ZEV-heavy manufacturers like Tesla and MG in a hugely strong negotiating position against their rivals.
Indeed, there's lot of fun and games, but my point still stands, this isn't all a "do nothing until 2030/35" effort, this is being ramped up behind the scenes to ensure come the deadline we're basically already there.Manufacturers can trade off below-target CO2 emissions in their ICE vehicles against the proportion of ZEVs they sell, although I'm not exactly sure in what proportions. They can also do weird things like trading having beaten the target last year against missing it this year, essentially building up credit to use against future years, which makes the whole thing even more complicated.
I believe it is also possible for manufacturers to "trade" parts of their allowance with other manufacturers, but because the government fines for non-compliance are so high, that's going to be put the more ZEV-heavy manufacturers like Tesla and MG in a hugely strong negotiating position against their rivals.
GT9 said:
BoRED S2upid said:
Good. 100% EV is not the answer.
What is the correct %?Sadly the government has got involved to bully manufacturers and the buying public.... this never ends well.
IMO the European car industry will be virtually non existent in 15 years time; governments are being too heavy handed with China benefitting.
phil4 said:
Indeed, there's lot of fun and games, but my point still stands, this isn't all a "do nothing until 2030/35" effort, this is being ramped up behind the scenes to ensure come the deadline we're basically already there.
Yeah but my point really was that I can see no way the market is going to keep up with the mandate without help. I think we'll either see the mandate relaxed, government reintroduce private purchase incentives for EVs, or major manufacturers leaving the UK market partially or entirely. A quote from Ford, for example:
Ford of Europe said:
We can’t push EVs into the market against demand. We’re not going to pay penalties. We are not going to sell EVs at huge losses just to buy compliance. The only alternative is to take our shipments of [engine-powered] vehicles to the UK down, and sell these vehicles somewhere else
We're likely to get to the point that we get to this sort of time of year and big manufacturers simply start saying "sorry, we're not going to import any more cars this year". If they find they're doing that every year, the next obvious step is to not bother to get UK type approval for new/refreshed ICE and hybrid models. Edited by kambites on Thursday 5th September 12:34
BoRED S2upid said:
Exactly. Just not 100%. There needs to be alternatives.
What are the alternatives available to UK policy-makers for new cars that have the ability to substantially reduce lifetime emissions and be a realistic, affordable option for tens of millions of cars?Hint: the energy to power these cars needs to start life as renewable electricity.
2nd hint: converting that energy to some other fuel has proven to be a categoric and absolute failure.
Practically speaking have two viable choices to power our new cars, electric or petrol hybrid.
Frankychops said:
Nomme de Plum said:
Volvo are a relatively small car manufacturer. 700K per annum and are part of Geely.
Tesla already outsell them 2.5 to 1, Ford well over 4M , BMW 2.5M Mercedes 2M. BYD are already over 3M annually. Whether they exist in 2035 is debatable but won't really make much difference to the automotive industry in general either way.
Tesla outsell Lamborghini, not sure what that has to do with anything?Tesla already outsell them 2.5 to 1, Ford well over 4M , BMW 2.5M Mercedes 2M. BYD are already over 3M annually. Whether they exist in 2035 is debatable but won't really make much difference to the automotive industry in general either way.
If Volvo are to survive they will need to improve their offer otherwise they'll disappear.
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