Do battery improvement put you off buying now?
Discussion
I was reading in Auotcar about the next Toyota/Lexus models and the battery packs seem to be impressively slim and with their SS batteries around the corner, offering potentially huge ranges (700 miles+), is it a risk to buy now and then see your car technologically superseded by cars with much better/lighter batteries?
dapprman said:
It's the same as with any tech. The next big thing or new innovation is just round the corner so you do contemplate waiting until it comes out, at which point there is then news of the next ground breaking improvements.
This.When you have cars on the market that will do 300+ miles on a charge, are able to be charged fully overnight on a standard 7kW charger and will charge at 200kW+ on a public rapid if required then I would suggest that's a lot of peoples needs covered.
The use case for someone needing 700 miles of range to a charge is niche to say the least, and unless they've worked out how to make cars hugely more efficient they must still have huge capacity?
TBH if new tech means they can offer 700 miles of range, then I'd suggest most would be happier with an EV with half the battery capacity and 350 mile range that should be considerably lighter and cheaper to buy? This endless quest for more and more range is far more beneficial to the pockets of the manufacturers than it is to 99.9% of owners IMHO.
SWoll said:
This endless quest for more and more range is far more beneficial to the pockets of the manufacturers than it is to 99.9% of owners IMHO.
I'm not so sure. There are a goodly number of people who will, like me, never realistically be able to charge at home. In that case, going from needing to be somewhere the car can charge every week to every two weeks is a good thing.I suppose technological advances will always hit resale value. If the cars are good enough for your purposes now, and you run cars into the ground, that doesn't matter. If you change car regularly, then the cost of that ownership will be expensive, unless the manufacturers effectively take over the used car market, and those end of PCP cars never see the light of day again, I don't know though if the next round of EVs will be a step change or a small incremental change. If the latter, then todays 2023 EV is still relevant to the market in 3-4 years. I cannot fathom the EV landscape in 2027; is it going to be basically the same cars as now or something, at least under the proverbial bonnet, that is completely different. Didn't see the same with ICE; engines didn't really change all that much.
Frimley111R said:
I was reading in Auotcar about the next Toyota/Lexus models and the battery packs seem to be impressively slim and with their SS batteries around the corner, offering potentially huge ranges (700 miles+), is it a risk to buy now and then see your car technologically superseded by cars with much better/lighter batteries?
Lease, don't buy. You're only going to get excessive depreciation on older tech if you're trying to sell it against contemporary directly comparable cars with newer tech. An inferior rival to a new Toyota hatchback bought at the same time is going to suffer. A three year old Model 3 is not going to be impacted by the arrival of a brand new Lexus with fancy batteries.
the rate of progress isn't flat though. new tech has a period of rapid progress when each year brings massive gains before the curve straightens out. As with smartphones, you had to buy a new one every year as the speed and functionality were compelling. After the iphone4 people were satisfied and upgrading less frequently.
So much is changing in cars right now, from the batteries to infotainment. They all look a bit iPhone3 to me. You can't wait forever, but it's not compelling yet unless you're BIK driven.
So much is changing in cars right now, from the batteries to infotainment. They all look a bit iPhone3 to me. You can't wait forever, but it's not compelling yet unless you're BIK driven.
Frimley111R said:
with their SS batteries around the corner
Toyota has been fighting the inevitable EV transition tooth & nail for quite a number of years now. They marketed their hybrids like crazy, even employing downright lies like 'self charging'.Their first 'serious' EV effort, the BZ4X, and its Lexus and Subaru derivatives, is abysmal. Wheels dropped off and it turned out to be expensive, inefficient, low range, and slow charging, with mediocre software. Just a bad EV.
All during that time, Toyota has been desperate to keep consumers from buying competitor's EV's. An important part of that strategy has been their amazing solid state battery tech, which has always been 'right around the corner'. It puts the fear in consumers who are afraid to buy the 'wrong' car, with the 'wrong' battery tech and that is just how Toyota likes it, for as long as they're not seriously competing in the EV market. And your post proves yet again that it's working.
Frimley111R said:
offering potentially huge ranges (700 miles+)
First of all: why would anybody need 700+ miles of range? Do you have a 700 miles bladder?Secondly, people who have experience running an EV for a while realise that range beyond 300 miles isn't much use. On long distances, the thing that counts is charging speed. Very few people drive more than 250 miles at a stretch, because they want to stretch their legs, have a pee and something to eat. A modern EV doesn't keep them waiting while they're doing that, the car has finished fast charging before they've finished peeing, stretching their legs and having a bite.
Why would you pay for and carry around a yuge battery when you can recharge for another 250 miles in 10-20 minutes while doing other things you would have done anyway?
)or something else heavy for 200-250 miles. i can see why this would be attractive. Most people won't be put off, because they are leasing or whatever, so don't care what's a couple of years down the road.
Actually buying, what will change the market is not 'better' batteries but cheaper ones.
The prospect of investing £40k in a car only to find you can buy a better new one for £25k after a couple of years might be influencing a lot of people.
I believe BEVs have to get a lot cheaper and shift a lot more units.
Actually buying, what will change the market is not 'better' batteries but cheaper ones.
The prospect of investing £40k in a car only to find you can buy a better new one for £25k after a couple of years might be influencing a lot of people.
I believe BEVs have to get a lot cheaper and shift a lot more units.
tamore said:
fleet buyers are already all in on BEVs. there are going to be 500,000 EVs coming off lease and into the 2nd hand market next year, 600,000 the year after and 800,000 the year ofter that. this is what s going to kickstart private ownership.
I don't think there will be 
Total EV sales in
2020 - 108,000
2021 - 190,000
2022 - 267,000
TheRainMaker said:
tamore said:
fleet buyers are already all in on BEVs. there are going to be 500,000 EVs coming off lease and into the 2nd hand market next year, 600,000 the year after and 800,000 the year ofter that. this is what s going to kickstart private ownership.
I don't think there will be Total EV sales in
2020 - 108,000
2021 - 190,000
2022 - 267,000
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