Zero Emissions Mandate readiness
Discussion
Interesting article summarising first half 2023 sales in the UK for various brands. Quite a number are already beating their 2024 Zero Vehicle Emissions Mandate targets of 22%. Notable exception are the Japanese manufacturers; their inability to see past ICE / hybrids has left them with a big old problem for selling in the UK. Toyota in particular really appear to have dropped the ball considering their jump on the majority of the market with hybrids. Looking at their numbers for 2023, you've got to wonder if they just won't bother selling here now. With EV sales splits like this, and less than 6 months to go, it seems an impossible ask:
Honda 1%
Mazda 2%
Toyota 1%
Lexus 7%
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/manufacturer-news...
Honda 1%
Mazda 2%
Toyota 1%
Lexus 7%
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/manufacturer-news...
The Japanese manufacturers stance on this is just weird. They've been motorising (electric) all sorts of tech and types of transport for decades - yet when it comes to cars they seem hell bent on hanging onto internal combustion.
This strikes me as particularly perilous for Toyota because they're a giant in the car world and giant firms tend to really struggle if they have to rapidly down size. But they will have to do just that if they can't quickly get a full range of EV's in the pipeline - the UK are not the only market of theirs that has a target and fine structure in place...
On a more positive note, well done to Porsche. If ten years ago I had to guess which German car brands would today be selling nearly a third BEV cars, I wouldn't have chosen the purists Porsche brand!
Also to a lesser extent, well done jaguar... Great first EV, well done on that. Although they did announce all new jags would be electric by 2025, so far all they have achieved toward that goal is a weak facelift of the iPace, their only EV, and the cancellation of electric XJ ahead of even going on sale
which is odd as I'm pretty sure the plan was to electrify all jags to offset land rover brand so that their cars remains as ice/hybrid for a while longer.
This strikes me as particularly perilous for Toyota because they're a giant in the car world and giant firms tend to really struggle if they have to rapidly down size. But they will have to do just that if they can't quickly get a full range of EV's in the pipeline - the UK are not the only market of theirs that has a target and fine structure in place...
On a more positive note, well done to Porsche. If ten years ago I had to guess which German car brands would today be selling nearly a third BEV cars, I wouldn't have chosen the purists Porsche brand!
Also to a lesser extent, well done jaguar... Great first EV, well done on that. Although they did announce all new jags would be electric by 2025, so far all they have achieved toward that goal is a weak facelift of the iPace, their only EV, and the cancellation of electric XJ ahead of even going on sale
which is odd as I'm pretty sure the plan was to electrify all jags to offset land rover brand so that their cars remains as ice/hybrid for a while longer.plfrench said:
Notable exception are the Japanese manufacturers; their inability to see past ICE / hybrids has left them with a big old problem for selling in the UK. Toyota in particular really appear to have dropped the ball considering their jump on the majority of the market with hybrids. Looking at their numbers for 2023, you've got to wonder if they just won't bother selling here now. With EV sales splits like this, and less than 6 months to go, it seems an impossible ask
Good article link. Key quote IMO is "In the first half of 2023, 16% of all new cars sold were electric".
So to meet the overall target of 22% in 2024, EVs only need to gain < 1.5% of market share each quarter, which doesn't seem impossible in the context of improving products and electricity prices falling.
Now, those EVs will be unevenly distributed, with companies like Tesla at 100% BEV and Toyota at single-digits. However, A Stellantis spokesperson told Fleet News: “We welcome the flexibilities for banking, borrowing, trading and pooling and we welcome closed pooling being permitted.”
In other words, those companies which are below the target can buy credits from those who are over it. As long as the industry as a whole hits 22%, everything can be sorted out with pooling.
Exactly the same arrangements pertained with the EU CO2 emissions caps, which Japanese carmakers took advantage of - "Honda joins CO2 emissions pool with Tesla and FCA" https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business/honda-...
"Carmakers successfully pooled emissions to meet 2020 EU targets"
https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/carmak...
so it'll involve laggards like Toyota making payments to EV makers like Tesla, but I don't anticipate it'll make it impossible or unprofitable for companies to keep selling cars, as long as the overall fraction of EVs hits the 22% requirement.
TheDeuce said:
The Japanese manufacturers stance on this is just weird. They've been motorising (electric) all sorts of tech and types of transport for decades - yet when it comes to cars they seem hell bent on hanging onto internal combustion.
Isn't this basically because Japan as a nation is desperately short of the resources needed to generate electricity? It’ll be very interesting to see how it unfolds. Those EV-only companies will have the struggling brands over a barrel - i can’t see them under-valuing those credits; they’re being given a great opportunity to realise some of that inherent competitive advantage they’ve built themselves through successful EV development and marketing. Why should Tesla want to bail Toyota out with credits which ultimately have a value of £15,000 per unit for a pittance? Sure they’ll be market forces coming into play setting a trading price, but it’s in none of the EV manufacturers who are sitting pretty’s interests to devalue these too far.
Either way, the laggards must surely see this market, and others that are imposing similar requirements, as less attractive to sell in.
Either way, the laggards must surely see this market, and others that are imposing similar requirements, as less attractive to sell in.
plfrench said:
It’ll be very interesting to see how it unfolds. Those EV-only companies will have the struggling brands over a barrel - i can’t see them under-valuing those credits; they’re being given a great opportunity to realise some of that inherent competitive advantage they’ve built themselves through successful EV development and marketing. Why should Tesla want to bail Toyota out with credits which ultimately have a value of £15,000 per unit for a pittance? Sure they’ll be market forces coming into play setting a trading price, but it’s in none of the EV manufacturers who are sitting pretty’s interests to devalue these too far.
Either way, the laggards must surely see this market, and others that are imposing similar requirements, as less attractive to sell in.
Aside from the vey small UK market that is introducing the mandate from next year, the whole EU emission regulations change to the next tranche of requirements for 2025.Either way, the laggards must surely see this market, and others that are imposing similar requirements, as less attractive to sell in.
Might be easy to ignore the UK, but you can't ignore the whole of the EU.
JD said:
plfrench said:
It’ll be very interesting to see how it unfolds. Those EV-only companies will have the struggling brands over a barrel - i can’t see them under-valuing those credits; they’re being given a great opportunity to realise some of that inherent competitive advantage they’ve built themselves through successful EV development and marketing. Why should Tesla want to bail Toyota out with credits which ultimately have a value of £15,000 per unit for a pittance? Sure they’ll be market forces coming into play setting a trading price, but it’s in none of the EV manufacturers who are sitting pretty’s interests to devalue these too far.
Either way, the laggards must surely see this market, and others that are imposing similar requirements, as less attractive to sell in.
Aside from the vey small UK market that is introducing the mandate from next year, the whole EU emission regulations change to the next tranche of requirements for 2025.Either way, the laggards must surely see this market, and others that are imposing similar requirements, as less attractive to sell in.
Might be easy to ignore the UK, but you can't ignore the whole of the EU.
It takes around 7 years to develop a new platform and get a range of cars built upon it ready for sale. That means that those firms starting 'today' are already late..
I'm not so sure, there's plenty of time yet for the manufacturers who are keeping an eye on the EV market to move in. Battery tech isn't rocket science and most have hybrids already. I'd argue that waiting and seeing what actually happens is a better strategy. Those going full EV now might regret it in the short term.
Frimley111R said:
I'm not so sure, there's plenty of time yet for the manufacturers who are keeping an eye on the EV market to move in. Battery tech isn't rocket science and most have hybrids already. I'd argue that waiting and seeing what actually happens is a better strategy. Those going full EV now might regret it in the short term.
Battery technology and design is highly sophisticated as are the management systems. They are even packaged differently. We are seeing a number of variations of chemical make up and power densities starting to emerge. There is massive investment in improving power densities and and charge management. The design of the vehicle is also quite different from an ICE based car if the product is to be optimised.
It is clear that Tesla has stolen a march on the legacy motor manufactures and they are playing catch up.
I do not see how a motor manufacture with no EV development underway could realistically catch up. Trying to fit batteries and electric motor in an existing ICE product is very suboptimal and buyers would easily be put off if the competition offer a more coherent and economic package.
https://insideevs.com/news/category/battery-tech/
Edited by Nomme de Plum on Friday 25th August 17:14
Murph7355 said:
kambites said:
Isn't this basically because Japan as a nation is desperately short of the resources needed to generate electricity?
They're not exactly swimming in oil either....In the long run I think wind, solar, geothermal, hydro and nuclear should be able to provide carbon-free electricity in Japan as needed to electrify transportation.
TheDeuce said:
On a more positive note, well done to Porsche. If ten years ago I had to guess which German car brands would today be selling nearly a third BEV cars, I wouldn't have chosen the purists Porsche brand!
.
I’m not too sure whether Porsche have misjudged their move to EV by jumping in with both feet..
There are plenty Taycan’s available for immediate delivery (never been known) and used examples are now massively reduced so the market isn’t sure either. Taycan’s generally will be bought by company owners who benefit from tax breaks and BIK so it’s a no brainer for them. There is no huge move in private motorists to EV as there are just too many unknowns (eg batteries, insurance, residuals, charging infrastructure). It will be interesting to see how the full EV Boxster goes down or if the launch is delayed. There are plenty of markets where EV is a non-starter (eg South Africa).
Interesting times ahead.
Boxster5 said:
TheDeuce said:
On a more positive note, well done to Porsche. If ten years ago I had to guess which German car brands would today be selling nearly a third BEV cars, I wouldn't have chosen the purists Porsche brand!
.
I’m not too sure whether Porsche have misjudged their move to EV by jumping in with both feet..
There are plenty Taycan’s available for immediate delivery (never been known) and used examples are now massively reduced so the market isn’t sure either. Taycan’s generally will be bought by company owners who benefit from tax breaks and BIK so it’s a no brainer for them. There is no huge move in private motorists to EV as there are just too many unknowns (eg batteries, insurance, residuals, charging infrastructure). It will be interesting to see how the full EV Boxster goes down or if the launch is delayed. There are plenty of markets where EV is a non-starter (eg South Africa).
Interesting times ahead.
I think the boxster will do very well. Many current Boxster drivers probably aren't really hardcore car people anyway, there is something about Porsche which seems to attract people - many won't care if it's electric. I think the biggest surprise for me was that the Porsche community accepted the Taycan so well, a car which Porsche themselves said the 911 was the performance benchmark for... Which I would have thought would be sacrilege in Porsche world but they seemed to get away with it - I think because the Taycan is a VERY good car.
TheDeuce said:
The Taycan was hugely inflated in price by supply issues, and as a result now those issues are relaxed most EV's from that time have dropped in value significantly. But the Taycan still sells well and they're working on the follow up right now, they're sticking with it.
Isn't the next high-end VAG EV platform horribly behind schedule? I'm sure I read something about Audi buying in a platform from another brand because the VAG one was so late. kambites said:
TheDeuce said:
The Taycan was hugely inflated in price by supply issues, and as a result now those issues are relaxed most EV's from that time have dropped in value significantly. But the Taycan still sells well and they're working on the follow up right now, they're sticking with it.
Isn't the next high-end VAG EV platform horribly behind schedule? I'm sure I read something about Audi buying in a platform from another brand because the VAG one was so late. I think VW want a cheaper more basic solution but the specialist brands want motor per wheel options - which makes sense, that's the way the performance EV game is headed. It's hard to know for sure what the problems really are though as there is a lot of political in-fighting across the group and different people giving different comments publicly.
All we know for sure is that as a group, they're not pulling in one direction and they appear to be making a clusterf
k of the transition to EV.within the regulations for not achieving the threshold of EV to ICE sales is the ability to borrow from future years. That is for every vehicle short of the required target you can take it from the following year. This is turn can mean that you can borrow from the year after for next year, however at some point an OEM has to hit the target.
So for the Japanese manufacturers they'll just borrow from next year. Also the EU market to the Japanese is small fry for most, it's a tiny out post along way from home so EV development is on the back foot as EV is much less of an issue in Japan and China.
What I see happening is that the production mix will ease out of ICE and into EV so that the target is hit through the production schedules and not consumer demand. I think we are currently at an impasse for Ev demand at the moment with it at its natural market level. Only significant discounting will grow it alongside price hikes for ICE - which is good if you already own one.
As previously mentioned, pre reg cars and other 'false' sales will be the norm hit hit this ever increasing target.
The ICE ban is going to be detrimental to the car industry in general.
So for the Japanese manufacturers they'll just borrow from next year. Also the EU market to the Japanese is small fry for most, it's a tiny out post along way from home so EV development is on the back foot as EV is much less of an issue in Japan and China.
What I see happening is that the production mix will ease out of ICE and into EV so that the target is hit through the production schedules and not consumer demand. I think we are currently at an impasse for Ev demand at the moment with it at its natural market level. Only significant discounting will grow it alongside price hikes for ICE - which is good if you already own one.
As previously mentioned, pre reg cars and other 'false' sales will be the norm hit hit this ever increasing target.
The ICE ban is going to be detrimental to the car industry in general.
Frimley111R said:
I'm not so sure, there's plenty of time yet for the manufacturers who are keeping an eye on the EV market to move in. Battery tech isn't rocket science and most have hybrids already. I'd argue that waiting and seeing what actually happens is a better strategy. Those going full EV now might regret it in the short term.
Lol explain the turn of events which could possibly make that true?autumnsum said:
Frimley111R said:
I'm not so sure, there's plenty of time yet for the manufacturers who are keeping an eye on the EV market to move in. Battery tech isn't rocket science and most have hybrids already. I'd argue that waiting and seeing what actually happens is a better strategy. Those going full EV now might regret it in the short term.
Lol explain the turn of events which could possibly make that true?This transition was never going to be easy for the manufacturers or the public, but it's happening. The best thing to do is deal with what is happening, not rally against it.
They have been slow but I don’t think anyone needs to worry. Europe has a population of around 450M. Japan on its own has over 120M and then there is the rest of the world. What happens in the U.K. or Europe is not critical for Japanese car manufacturers.
Japanese cars have always been niche in Europe anyway. Nothing to see here.
Japanese cars have always been niche in Europe anyway. Nothing to see here.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I disagree. The used car market is only just starting to balance out and as a result used car sales are increasing. I never expected many private buyers to buy new EV's, I don't think the politicians or heads of industry did either. It's long been the case that a significant number of new cars are fleet/company - and also a large chunk of private 'sales' are actually private leases due to manufacturers discounting product to the lease companies and the lease being cheaper for the private buyer than purchase.I don't know why you keep basing your opinion on it being a free market tbh. It hasn't been for decades, it's a tax controlled market for new cars - there has been no change in that regard.
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