Rumour that Rishi is going to u-turn on the ZEV deadline
Discussion
Is this rumour anything more than wishful thinking?
Personally I think a u-turn would be electoral suicide.
(If a zombie government can commit suicide?)
Is this policy within President Rishi's personal power to u-turn on?
Would we not need to pass/repeal laws, requiring a debate in PArliament, due process and a majority?
I think these rumours get put out there to measure the level of public antipathy and apathy.
Personally I think a u-turn would be electoral suicide.
(If a zombie government can commit suicide?)
Is this policy within President Rishi's personal power to u-turn on?
Would we not need to pass/repeal laws, requiring a debate in PArliament, due process and a majority?
I think these rumours get put out there to measure the level of public antipathy and apathy.
I doubt this will happen.
1) People feel strongly about things affecting them today and in the next 12 months. They aren't looking 12 years ahead and lying awake at night feeling upset about no longer being able to buy petrol-burning cars (the real deadline is 2035 as hybrids are permitted until them). So the political upside is limited
2) There's a big political downside in loss of reputation / influence abroad for U-turning and not seeing through our commitment to net zero.
3) There's a big political downside at home as most people are concerned about global warming and would like to have at least the hope that our government has a long-term plan to phase out carbon emissions
4) Car companies have invested heavily in EVs to meet the government mandate, so will not be supportive of a "motorist friendly" policy announcement of this kind.
Basically it's big downside and small upside for Rishi. There are lots of other things he could do in this area that would better win votes:
- Create clearly defined criteria for 20mph zones and other speed limit reductions so they're only used where truly justified on safety grounds
- Raise/abolish the motorway speed limit (if it's good enough for ze Germans, ...)
- Ban airports for charging for drop-offs
- Establish an independent watchdog that would hear appeals against unfair penalty notices e.g. for banned right turns, parking etc and establish clear standards for required signage etc
- Maintain at least the main road network in a better road surface condition, with potholes promptly attended to
- Reserve road-charging powers to central government to forestall local schemes such as the unpopular proposals in Cambridge
I'm sure PHers could think of a dozen other policies the government could come up with which would tend to raise a groundswell of popular support by attacking issues that affect people today and in the near future, rather than U-turning on a long-term strategic goal which is of high value but of low impact on people this side of the election.
1) People feel strongly about things affecting them today and in the next 12 months. They aren't looking 12 years ahead and lying awake at night feeling upset about no longer being able to buy petrol-burning cars (the real deadline is 2035 as hybrids are permitted until them). So the political upside is limited
2) There's a big political downside in loss of reputation / influence abroad for U-turning and not seeing through our commitment to net zero.
3) There's a big political downside at home as most people are concerned about global warming and would like to have at least the hope that our government has a long-term plan to phase out carbon emissions
4) Car companies have invested heavily in EVs to meet the government mandate, so will not be supportive of a "motorist friendly" policy announcement of this kind.
Basically it's big downside and small upside for Rishi. There are lots of other things he could do in this area that would better win votes:
- Create clearly defined criteria for 20mph zones and other speed limit reductions so they're only used where truly justified on safety grounds
- Raise/abolish the motorway speed limit (if it's good enough for ze Germans, ...)
- Ban airports for charging for drop-offs
- Establish an independent watchdog that would hear appeals against unfair penalty notices e.g. for banned right turns, parking etc and establish clear standards for required signage etc
- Maintain at least the main road network in a better road surface condition, with potholes promptly attended to
- Reserve road-charging powers to central government to forestall local schemes such as the unpopular proposals in Cambridge
I'm sure PHers could think of a dozen other policies the government could come up with which would tend to raise a groundswell of popular support by attacking issues that affect people today and in the near future, rather than U-turning on a long-term strategic goal which is of high value but of low impact on people this side of the election.
Edited by samoht on Wednesday 2nd August 18:25
D4rez said:
The telegraph spouted some wishful thinking but then both Rishi and Gove said it was immovable.
If they did anything it would be to move to 2035 to align with the EU
That's all they can do - on the basis that was the original target agreed. If they did anything it would be to move to 2035 to align with the EU
I doubt they'll do even that but it could allow a few years of exceptions for micro manufacturs such as AM..
But for mainstream private transport, there's no escaping the impending ban.
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