The tipping point?
Discussion
EV's are in the minority right now, but growing in terms of market share. Looking to the future it seems like a lazy, linear shift from ICE to EV.
Normally there is a tipping point and things start to happen rapidly. I think with EV it will be a multitude of influences that will create the snowball effect. IE once you get to 20% EV's on the road 'some' petrol stations will shut, not many but some are bound to - but in those areas, even though everyone can still get fuel, it will send a message and get people thinking about EV, and then of course that in turn makes it slightly more likely they will buy an EV and then slightly more likely another petrol station will close.
There's also the factor of acceptance to consider. For every person that for whatever reason gets an EV, that is one more person (generally..) who will tell friends and family that EV works just fine, and then all those people are slightly more likely to consider one..
I can see a few trigger points that will accelerate uptake for sure. The interesting thing is there has to become a point at which the loss of ICE cars on the road will hit ICE infrastructure. If you lose 10% of the petrol stations, life carries on as usual. But if you lose 20-30% then economies of scale and logistics start to suffer and fuel prices increase as a result = yet more people start to consider EV for their next car.
It's basically impossible to predict the moment the confluence of factors combine and a big shift happens. But regardless, might as well debate it
I think it's going to be a surprising and interesting next decade for car fans.
Normally there is a tipping point and things start to happen rapidly. I think with EV it will be a multitude of influences that will create the snowball effect. IE once you get to 20% EV's on the road 'some' petrol stations will shut, not many but some are bound to - but in those areas, even though everyone can still get fuel, it will send a message and get people thinking about EV, and then of course that in turn makes it slightly more likely they will buy an EV and then slightly more likely another petrol station will close.
There's also the factor of acceptance to consider. For every person that for whatever reason gets an EV, that is one more person (generally..) who will tell friends and family that EV works just fine, and then all those people are slightly more likely to consider one..
I can see a few trigger points that will accelerate uptake for sure. The interesting thing is there has to become a point at which the loss of ICE cars on the road will hit ICE infrastructure. If you lose 10% of the petrol stations, life carries on as usual. But if you lose 20-30% then economies of scale and logistics start to suffer and fuel prices increase as a result = yet more people start to consider EV for their next car.
It's basically impossible to predict the moment the confluence of factors combine and a big shift happens. But regardless, might as well debate it
I think it's going to be a surprising and interesting next decade for car fans.
As discussed on the other thread, it'll be a combo of cheaper EVs, better EVs (especially range) and better charging facilities which will move it from early adopters to the majority. Those three things will get it to the point where the compromises are minimal and the advantages are compelling, and then it'll swing through 50% of the market relatively quickly I think.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I think external factors are suppressing EV sales in the private sector right now. The fact is early adopters have seen residual values hit hard due to a temporary limit in supply being alleviated and also, simply new entrants into the industry suddenly selling very good EV's for £30k, or less..So yes, the market has been upset - but I think only temporarily. There's no shortage of fundamentally good and appealing reasons for more people to buy/lease one moving forwards. There's no shortage of members on these very forums that are clearly shopping for one despite not qualifying for the incentives.
I think you hit the nail on the head regards old sites not being redevelped. It's very likely that whilst no one is panicking and looking to get out of selling fuel just yet... those with an end of life site in their concern might start to lack the confidence to refurb it. That has to be a difficult decision because the cost of the refurb requires many years to recoup and how many years do some sites have? 5? 10? Who knows - but previously they did know, the answer was 'forever', now, it's not.
I don't see a tipping point until there are essentially only a small number of fuel stations left.
ICE vehicles pollute (invisibly) at a local level but are better overall than an EV for the average person. They have no downsides assuming you can fuel them, or very few at least. Many are well built and reliable too and a 'known' product.
I think many people will hang on to their ICE vehicles as long as they can, meaning way past 2050.
Pricing for any new car seems to be getting like it is for homes. In comparison to the average wage, a car is more and more out of kilter with incomes, thus slowing down new car sales and especially EVs.
ICE vehicles pollute (invisibly) at a local level but are better overall than an EV for the average person. They have no downsides assuming you can fuel them, or very few at least. Many are well built and reliable too and a 'known' product.
I think many people will hang on to their ICE vehicles as long as they can, meaning way past 2050.
Pricing for any new car seems to be getting like it is for homes. In comparison to the average wage, a car is more and more out of kilter with incomes, thus slowing down new car sales and especially EVs.
Frimley111R said:
I don't see a tipping point until there are essentially only a small number of fuel stations left.
ICE vehicles pollute (invisibly) at a local level but are better overall than an EV for the average person. They have no downsides...
What do you mean by better overall? They also pollute at a global level, or are we saying CO2 is not a pollutant?ICE vehicles pollute (invisibly) at a local level but are better overall than an EV for the average person. They have no downsides...
GT9 said:
Frimley111R said:
I don't see a tipping point until there are essentially only a small number of fuel stations left.
ICE vehicles pollute (invisibly) at a local level but are better overall than an EV for the average person. They have no downsides...
What do you mean by better overall? They also pollute at a global level, or are we saying CO2 is not a pollutant?ICE vehicles pollute (invisibly) at a local level but are better overall than an EV for the average person. They have no downsides...
GT9 said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
That's just an opinion, and seemingly a minority one at that.Upsetting a finely balanced system with a small % change can cause carnage.
Ask a tight-rope walker.
Edited by GT9 on Tuesday 1st August 09:47
Both of those are big powerful minorities.
And they're both wrong in my view.
But it's pretty clear that huge swathes of the general public either don't believe in MMGW or don't want worrying about it to influence their lives.
OutInTheShed said:
Some people believe in god, some people believe CO2 isn't a problem.
Both of those are big powerful minorities.
And they're both wrong in my view.
But it's pretty clear that huge swathes of the general public either don't believe in MMGW or don't want worrying about it to influence their lives.
It's just a cop out. Both of those are big powerful minorities.
And they're both wrong in my view.
But it's pretty clear that huge swathes of the general public either don't believe in MMGW or don't want worrying about it to influence their lives.
Global CO2 levels bumble along bouncing between 200-300 ppm for a million years and then all of a sudden its 400 ppm and rising faster than it's ever risen before.
At exactly the same time we release shedloads of CO2, methane and other greenhouses gases.
EV Guy is having a giraffe.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Personally I see two tipping points.One is in EV sales.
That might be when you can buy an adequate new BEV from China, Korea or maybe India for less than the cost of running a tidy IC car.
Then there will be a second tipping point, when a combination of Zero Emission Zones, high taxes on carbon dioxide and so on make keeping an IC car expensive and not much fun. At this point we might see a net reduction in the total number of cars. It may occur earlier in some cities than nationally.
GT9 said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
That's just an opinion, and seemingly a minority one at that.Upsetting a finely balanced system with a small % change can cause carnage.
Ask a tight-rope walker.
Edited by GT9 on Tuesday 1st August 09:47
CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
I think it'll come round when the anti EV rhetoric ends and we start to see more positive articles about the actual benefits and ease of living with one. I rarely see any such articles but loads of BS.
Naturally there's still a large proportion of the public that an EV won't suit but telling everyone that EV's don't work is nonsense.
We need a neutral base of info, for which to form public opinion. Currently it's far from it.
Naturally there's still a large proportion of the public that an EV won't suit but telling everyone that EV's don't work is nonsense.
We need a neutral base of info, for which to form public opinion. Currently it's far from it.
GT9 said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
That's just an opinion, and seemingly a minority one at that.Upsetting a finely balanced system with a small % change can cause carnage.
Ask a tight-rope walker.
Edited by GT9 on Tuesday 1st August 09:47
But of course we don't view our future safety and survival in terms of what is normal for our planet, we view it in terms of what is vital for us to survive. We probably can't bring about a substantial reversal of our contributions to climate change speeding up, but we can likely survive it if we apply better technologies going forward. Also, just plain old sensible down to earth day to day improvements - before EV's every single car on the road pumped toxic gases, known to cause cancer, constantly into the streets and towns of places where fellow humans tend to live. That's a more immediate concern imo, and it's something we all accepted for so long out of sheer familiarity and habit. When you stop and think about it, it's pretty dumb to even consider continuing to directly poison ourselves if we can avoid it.
Concerns about the immediate impact of running ICE cars will start to be more prominent now there is a valid alternative. People don't question the solution to a problem when there is only one solution, which for a very long time was ICE. But the more EV's people see buzzing around the place, the harder it becomes to not start to look at ICE slightly differently.
Pepperpots said:
Nonsense.
CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
Just keep burning stuff then. Good for you.CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
TheDeuce said:
. Also, just plain old sensible down to earth day to day improvements - before EV's every single car on the road pumped toxic gases, known to cause cancer, constantly into the streets and towns of places where fellow humans tend to live. That's a more immediate concern imo, and it's something we all accepted for so long out of sheer familiarity and habit. When you stop and think about it, it's pretty dumb to even consider continuing to directly poison ourselves if we can avoid it.
Indeed. One day people will talk about us and tell stories of how we burned stuff in vehicles and pumped all the fumes into the faces of the people behind!I think that if the fumes were not invisible this would have been an issue far sooner.
GT9 said:
Pepperpots said:
Nonsense.
CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
Just keep burning stuff then. Good for you.CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
We will crumble as a nation the day we stop burning stuff, the rest of the world, however, will look on and laugh.
And then invade.
OutInTheShed said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Personally I see two tipping points.One is in EV sales.
That might be when you can buy an adequate new BEV from China, Korea or maybe India for less than the cost of running a tidy IC car.
Then there will be a second tipping point, when a combination of Zero Emission Zones, high taxes on carbon dioxide and so on make keeping an IC car expensive and not much fun. At this point we might see a net reduction in the total number of cars. It may occur earlier in some cities than nationally.
As our requirements to travel reduce, eventually more households will question if their existing fleet is overkill - it's only natural that if you start to reduce the need for something, people's willingness to pay for that thing will reduce too.
I would guess that just about any household that is able to downsize by one car in the next few years, actually could find an EV affordable, given the price of new EV's from the east and also the far lower running costs.
Myself and Mrs Deuce opted to become a single car home in the very early days of the Pandemic. We had our own cars our entire lives up until that point and there were all sorts of reasons we came up with as to why it couldn't work and would be a big inconvenience.. In the end we decided to try it and to simply pay for a taxi if we got stuck, and not to ever worry about the taxi costs as were saving hundreds a month on the second car. Over three years later and we're perfectly happy and hardly ever pay for a taxi, we don't need to, because naturally now we only have the one car we have made little adjustments to our habits and routines and the one car does 99% of all our personal transport needs easily. Not bad given it's an EV so is range limited, but it's honestly never been a problem and I can't believe how much we used to spend on motoring before hand.
Pepperpots said:
GT9 said:
Pepperpots said:
Nonsense.
CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
Just keep burning stuff then. Good for you.CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
We will crumble as a nation the day we stop burning stuff, the rest of the world, however, will look on and laugh.
And then invade.
Pepperpots said:
GT9 said:
Pepperpots said:
Nonsense.
CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
Just keep burning stuff then. Good for you.CO2 is not an existential threat like the politicians might like you to believe, it's simply a measurable used to tax the masses. Indeed 'it's punitive contribution to global warming is less than the margin of error for measurement of effect of water vapour'. You know, clouds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDop
50:15
We will crumble as a nation the day we stop burning stuff, the rest of the world, however, will look on and laugh.
And then invade.
We have more than enough renewable energy potential in the UK to satisfy our entire energy requirement. We just have no way of storing it, but as EV numbers increase a huge part of that problem is solved as EV batteries become, effectively, grid attached storage - in addition to the useful job of actually making the car move.
Believe what you will about the agenda behind climate concerns etc, it doesn't really matter. Plainly if we can get energy endlessly and far more cleanly than burning fossil fuels, it makes sense to do so. No one is talking about us needing to take a step back and limit our potential as a nation by transitioning away from fossil fuels, it's about us finally having the technology to make renewables feasible and taking advantage of that.
TheDeuce said:
Yes, because it's just us in the UK making this terrible mistake, and the rest of the world isn't also looking to renewables and electric cars..
We have more than enough renewable energy potential in the UK to satisfy our entire energy requirement. We just have no way of storing it, but as EV numbers increase a huge part of that problem is solved as EV batteries become, effectively, grid attached storage - in addition to the useful job of actually making the car move.
Believe what you will about the agenda behind climate concerns etc, it doesn't really matter. Plainly if we can get energy endlessly and far more cleanly than burning fossil fuels, it makes sense to do so. No one is talking about us needing to take a step back and limit our potential as a nation by transitioning away from fossil fuels, it's about us finally having the technology to make renewables feasible and taking advantage of that.
Ah, but you are assuming we don't fall for the Trojan horse trick that the boys at the Sun are worried about. EVs, and only EVs of course, will be remote controlled. You've all be warned, mark my words, etc, etc.We have more than enough renewable energy potential in the UK to satisfy our entire energy requirement. We just have no way of storing it, but as EV numbers increase a huge part of that problem is solved as EV batteries become, effectively, grid attached storage - in addition to the useful job of actually making the car move.
Believe what you will about the agenda behind climate concerns etc, it doesn't really matter. Plainly if we can get energy endlessly and far more cleanly than burning fossil fuels, it makes sense to do so. No one is talking about us needing to take a step back and limit our potential as a nation by transitioning away from fossil fuels, it's about us finally having the technology to make renewables feasible and taking advantage of that.
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