Toyota to launch solid state battery in 2027-28; range 750mi
Discussion
Toyota's shares rose 5% today following several announcements at their Technical Workshop 2023. The most important ones were about developments in their battery technology, especially solid state batteries.
Key points:
- They've made a breakthrough that addresses the durability problems that have dogged solid state batteries.
- They aim to start mass production of solid state batteries in 2027-28.
- These batteries, in combination with improved aerodynamics and weight reduction, should enable a range of 1,200km (=750 miles) and the ability to charge from 10% to 80% capacity in less than 10 minutes.
See page 3 of this presentation: https://global.toyota/pages/news/images/2023/06/13...
- In addition to the new solid state technology which will undoubtedly be expensive, other steps forward include:
- 2026: launch of a performance battery - range 1,000km and 20% reduction in cost/km compared to the current bZ4x battery. Charge from 10% to 80% in c.20 mins.
- 2026: launch of a popular, bipolar (!) Li-ion battery - range 20% greater and 40% reduction in cost/km compared to the current bZ4x battery. Charge from 10% to 80% in c.30 mins.
- 2027-28: launch of a performance bipolar battery - range 10% greater (1,100km) and 10% reduction in cost/km compared to the 2026 performance battery. Charge from 10% to 80% in c.20 mins.
There's also a Reuters report here: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...
I'm not sure what to make of all this, but my conclusions would be:
- Competition in battery development appears to be alive.
- It is not only the Chinese and Tesla who have expertise.
- Price per kWh of battery capacity will continue to decline.
- A solid state battery that delivers range of 300 miles is more appealing than a 750 miler: presumably a lot cheaper, lighter and benefits from the same charging rate.
- Presumably Toyota is no different from other car companies in understanding the need to reduce the weight of BEVs (see the sections on giga-casting and development of smaller e-axles) and improve aero. This will enable cars to use smaller batteries or have greater range for an existing battery capacity.
- Future BEVs are going to be a heck of a lot better than those currently available.
- Toyota is reassuringly weird at times. Quotes from their presentations include:
* 'Like the manual EV, we will deliver exciting surprises and fun to our customers with technologies achievable only by a carmaker.'
* 'As an example of our technological capability to provide not only the bZ series but also Fun to Drive BEVs to meet the diverse needs of our customers, we have converted the powertrain of the Crown into a BEV'. WTF? Toyota Crown/BEV = fun to drive?!?!
Key points:
- They've made a breakthrough that addresses the durability problems that have dogged solid state batteries.
- They aim to start mass production of solid state batteries in 2027-28.
- These batteries, in combination with improved aerodynamics and weight reduction, should enable a range of 1,200km (=750 miles) and the ability to charge from 10% to 80% capacity in less than 10 minutes.
See page 3 of this presentation: https://global.toyota/pages/news/images/2023/06/13...
- In addition to the new solid state technology which will undoubtedly be expensive, other steps forward include:
- 2026: launch of a performance battery - range 1,000km and 20% reduction in cost/km compared to the current bZ4x battery. Charge from 10% to 80% in c.20 mins.
- 2026: launch of a popular, bipolar (!) Li-ion battery - range 20% greater and 40% reduction in cost/km compared to the current bZ4x battery. Charge from 10% to 80% in c.30 mins.
- 2027-28: launch of a performance bipolar battery - range 10% greater (1,100km) and 10% reduction in cost/km compared to the 2026 performance battery. Charge from 10% to 80% in c.20 mins.
There's also a Reuters report here: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...
I'm not sure what to make of all this, but my conclusions would be:
- Competition in battery development appears to be alive.
- It is not only the Chinese and Tesla who have expertise.
- Price per kWh of battery capacity will continue to decline.
- A solid state battery that delivers range of 300 miles is more appealing than a 750 miler: presumably a lot cheaper, lighter and benefits from the same charging rate.
- Presumably Toyota is no different from other car companies in understanding the need to reduce the weight of BEVs (see the sections on giga-casting and development of smaller e-axles) and improve aero. This will enable cars to use smaller batteries or have greater range for an existing battery capacity.
- Future BEVs are going to be a heck of a lot better than those currently available.
- Toyota is reassuringly weird at times. Quotes from their presentations include:
* 'Like the manual EV, we will deliver exciting surprises and fun to our customers with technologies achievable only by a carmaker.'
* 'As an example of our technological capability to provide not only the bZ series but also Fun to Drive BEVs to meet the diverse needs of our customers, we have converted the powertrain of the Crown into a BEV'. WTF? Toyota Crown/BEV = fun to drive?!?!
raspy said:
My conclusion after reading all of that is that it reaffirms my position not to buy an EV, but to lease one. Surely the cutting edge EVs out today will depreciate so much in just a few years time once all this new battery tech gets out?
Not sure of that. People in the market for a 3+ year old EV won't generally be cross shopping against the newest cars. More likely to be a consideration if you are buying a brand new older tech EV when newer tech ones are also being sold. 
raspy said:
My conclusion after reading all of that is that it reaffirms my position not to buy an EV, but to lease one. Surely the cutting edge EVs out today will depreciate so much in just a few years time once all this new battery tech gets out?
Mine was made in 2016 and it really doesn't feel that 'old tech'. Seemed to keep up with the same couple of faster charging Taycan's, Ioniq 5's and EV6's just fine on the way to Le Mans last weekend.raspy said:
Will your 2016 EV have 750 miles of range in 2027 then?
No but I don't need 750 miles of range, do I want my car to have more, sure. Does it currently work very well for all the long Euro and UK trips I've done in it, yes.If you really need to go 750 miles without stopping and have the worlds best bladder control then wait for sure.
otolith said:
Does occur to me that some selfish gits might habitually run their 750 mile EV empty and then charge it at a public charger.
Great though for people who don't have access to a charger at home. This would be a game changer for the terrace house scenario although then there's the price........RobbyJ said:
No but I don't need 750 miles of range, do I want my car to have more, sure. Does it currently work very well for all the long Euro and UK trips I've done in it, yes.
If you really need to go 750 miles without stopping and have the worlds best bladder control then wait for sure.
Maybe people might want to drive 750 miles with quick stops without having to faff around with charging stops? Have you considered that different people have different approaches to a long trip?If you really need to go 750 miles without stopping and have the worlds best bladder control then wait for sure.
raspy said:
Maybe people might want to drive 750 miles with quick stops without having to faff around with charging stops? Have you considered that different people have different approaches to a long trip?
Sure, then wait till 2027, then till 2030, then........and just to add it depends what you mean by faff around. What it looks like for me is stopping in a nice wide space usually closer to the services building than other spaces. Take cable out of charger, plug in, walk off, takes 10 seconds, what a massive faff.
Edited by RobbyJ on Wednesday 14th June 11:26
raspy said:
Maybe people might want to drive 750 miles with quick stops without having to faff around with charging stops? Have you considered that different people have different approaches to a long trip?
By far the best use of improved battery tech would be reduced weight, reduced cost, improved practicality and faster rapid charging speeds. This constant demand from certain consumers for every longer range just offers manufacturers the perfect excuse to keep making cars bigger, heavier and more expensive and then the same consumers complain about that instead. Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff