What`s going to happen to all these hybrid/electric cars
Discussion
After they are 10 years old and the battery stops working. I appreciate it will be a gradual decline, but also understand that replacements for the batteries are going to be very expensive.
Take for instance the BMW guidance that their batteries in the 335i M activehybrid will last 10 years. What then, will the cars be sold with the buyer understanding they will need to spend 5-10k on replacing the battery, is this already priced in do you think?
Take for instance the BMW guidance that their batteries in the 335i M activehybrid will last 10 years. What then, will the cars be sold with the buyer understanding they will need to spend 5-10k on replacing the battery, is this already priced in do you think?
Just because you buy a hybrid (which you can until 2035), you don't have to use the battery only facility, just put fuel in it. After all, there are plenty of huge SUV plug-in hybrids running about with the cables still in the boot unused, they've only been bough because of the tax perk. 
There are plenty of Nissan Leafs over 10 year old running about. Yes, reduced range, but the battery technology has already made big steps since 2010.
There are plenty of Nissan Leafs over 10 year old running about. Yes, reduced range, but the battery technology has already made big steps since 2010.
They don’t stop working when you get to 10years old.
It’s to do with miles done. Current Tesla batteries are expected to last between 300-500,000 miles, or 1,500 charge cycles.
They can then be recycled.
You can ask the same question of a car engine. Who would buy a car with 120,000 miles on it when it’s at the end of life. People still do and they run on for a while longer.
It’s to do with miles done. Current Tesla batteries are expected to last between 300-500,000 miles, or 1,500 charge cycles.
They can then be recycled.
You can ask the same question of a car engine. Who would buy a car with 120,000 miles on it when it’s at the end of life. People still do and they run on for a while longer.
BMW offer a longer warranty on the batteries than they do on a combustion engine. Go back 30 years and entire cars were condemned after 10 years due to rust, but technology improves and look where we are now.
On a slightly more thoughtful note, they don't "stop working" they decline slowly at a cell level, and as things develop there will be a market for repairs and remanufactured batteries whereby the poorly performing cells can be swapped out.
On a slightly more thoughtful note, they don't "stop working" they decline slowly at a cell level, and as things develop there will be a market for repairs and remanufactured batteries whereby the poorly performing cells can be swapped out.
I don't think its a useful comparison to ICE cars, ICE engines don't just stop working, many parts can be replaced and they will run for 100`s of thousands of miles. Proper maintenance will ensure they last well, and most parts that wear out are replaceable. As my original post said, I know batteries don't just stop working immediately, but I understand that as soon as they start to deteriorate its a pretty linear line straight down.
Its interesting that people have mentioned the Japanese manufacturers like Toyota, I am sure they have engineered their cars
exceed what they claim to be the normal working life. My guess is that the European manufacturers will have built these vehicles to meet their 8 year, 100,000 mile working life, and anything else is a bonus.
From what I can gather (and interestingly BMW don't seem to publish anything on this) it is likely to cost close to 10,000 pounds. So any financial benefit gained in running one will surely be wiped out by initial premium over an ICE engine car vs depreciation due to the battery needing replacement.
Basically, I cant see why people would purchase a used hybrid or electric vehicle over a Euro 6 petrol or diesel. Since most Europeans cars are approaching 10 years to both the emergence of hybrids and Euro 6, I think we will see a lot of divergence in price. I would certainly not buy a 10 year old Hybrid 3 series if I could get a Euro 6 diesel for similar money.
Its interesting that people have mentioned the Japanese manufacturers like Toyota, I am sure they have engineered their cars
exceed what they claim to be the normal working life. My guess is that the European manufacturers will have built these vehicles to meet their 8 year, 100,000 mile working life, and anything else is a bonus.
From what I can gather (and interestingly BMW don't seem to publish anything on this) it is likely to cost close to 10,000 pounds. So any financial benefit gained in running one will surely be wiped out by initial premium over an ICE engine car vs depreciation due to the battery needing replacement.
Basically, I cant see why people would purchase a used hybrid or electric vehicle over a Euro 6 petrol or diesel. Since most Europeans cars are approaching 10 years to both the emergence of hybrids and Euro 6, I think we will see a lot of divergence in price. I would certainly not buy a 10 year old Hybrid 3 series if I could get a Euro 6 diesel for similar money.
This suggests that a 200k mile Tesla retains about 85% of its original battery capacity.
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla...
It's maybe something to consider when buying a used EV, you might want to go for a slightly bigger battery capacity to account for ageing, but it's hardly a big deal. The car absolutely remains useful up to and beyond 200k miles from a battery pov, which is probably longer than most cars reach in the UK.
Leaf batteries degrade significantly faster as they don't have any cooling system, but most other EVs have effectively thermostatic systems that keep the cells within an optimum range most of the time, just like how your engine keeps the water temp fairly constant to keep the lubrication, combustion etc processing working optimally. Even an old Leaf is useful for someone who just wants a car to go 5-10 miles into town and back.
I think overall, assuming good rust protection, we could see EVs having a longer useful life than the average combustion engined car.
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla...
It's maybe something to consider when buying a used EV, you might want to go for a slightly bigger battery capacity to account for ageing, but it's hardly a big deal. The car absolutely remains useful up to and beyond 200k miles from a battery pov, which is probably longer than most cars reach in the UK.
Leaf batteries degrade significantly faster as they don't have any cooling system, but most other EVs have effectively thermostatic systems that keep the cells within an optimum range most of the time, just like how your engine keeps the water temp fairly constant to keep the lubrication, combustion etc processing working optimally. Even an old Leaf is useful for someone who just wants a car to go 5-10 miles into town and back.
I think overall, assuming good rust protection, we could see EVs having a longer useful life than the average combustion engined car.
samoht said:
This suggests that a 200k mile Tesla retains about 85% of its original battery capacity.
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla...
It's maybe something to consider when buying a used EV, you might want to go for a slightly bigger battery capacity to account for ageing, but it's hardly a big deal. The car absolutely remains useful up to and beyond 200k miles from a battery pov, which is probably longer than most cars reach in the UK.
Leaf batteries degrade significantly faster as they don't have any cooling system, but most other EVs have effectively thermostatic systems that keep the cells within an optimum range most of the time, just like how your engine keeps the water temp fairly constant to keep the lubrication, combustion etc processing working optimally. Even an old Leaf is useful for someone who just wants a car to go 5-10 miles into town and back.
I think overall, assuming good rust protection, we could see EVs having a longer useful life than the average combustion engined car.
Interesting, thanks for the info.certainly reassuring https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla...
It's maybe something to consider when buying a used EV, you might want to go for a slightly bigger battery capacity to account for ageing, but it's hardly a big deal. The car absolutely remains useful up to and beyond 200k miles from a battery pov, which is probably longer than most cars reach in the UK.
Leaf batteries degrade significantly faster as they don't have any cooling system, but most other EVs have effectively thermostatic systems that keep the cells within an optimum range most of the time, just like how your engine keeps the water temp fairly constant to keep the lubrication, combustion etc processing working optimally. Even an old Leaf is useful for someone who just wants a car to go 5-10 miles into town and back.
I think overall, assuming good rust protection, we could see EVs having a longer useful life than the average combustion engined car.
mersontheperson said:
BananaFama said:
ICE engines CAN just stop working.
When the timing chain or belt fails
When the piston and con rod exit outside the block unexpectedly .
This response is quite the perfect example of straw manning When the timing chain or belt fails
When the piston and con rod exit outside the block unexpectedly .
Bestle said:
The same thing that happens with ICE cars that need new engines I imagine? There will be a market of used and remanufactured parts.
The issue is that an ICE doesn't lose range over time and most won't need new engines while *all* EV's & Hybrids will lose range over time. Some catastrophically so. Some Hybrids will stop working entirely when the battery dies. Toyotas for example start the engine from the main battery pack. So if the battery dies even though theoretically you could drive on the ICE engine, you can't because you can't start it! samoht said:
This suggests that a 200k mile Tesla retains about 85% of its original battery capacity.
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla...
Very much cherry picking your data there. Age is arguably far more important to EV's than mileage and there are some nasty variances in that data. https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla...
Sure a 200k car may retain 85%...but if you're doing massive mileage (which lets be honest would really suit the far cheaper "fuel" costs of an EV) then you may be doing that in only 4-5 years.
Looking at the same data then equally there are some that are 5 years old cars with 85% and at 9.5 years old some are dipping below 80%.
You could buy a 10 year old ICE car and it will have 99.999% of it's range as when it was new.
My 15 year/150k old car still has ~500Mi range, I've lost more range due to the move to E10 than due to it's age/mileage! If it runs another 10 years it would *STILL* have the same range as makes no difference as when it was new (ignoring the E10 bit and assuming we were running it on E0 anyway).
Even the companies that have a long term warranty are still depressingly low before they'll replace. 70% at 5 years old for the 24kW Leaf, ouch.
mersontheperson said:
I don't think its a useful comparison to ICE cars, ICE engines don't just stop working, many parts can be replaced and they will run for 100`s of thousands of miles. Proper maintenance will ensure they last well, and most parts that wear out are replaceable.
And so the same will happen with EVs - parts of batteries will be replaced and they will run for 100,000's of miles. The average car in the UK never makes it to 100,000 miles anyway, they are usually written off or scrapped before that point. There are also far fewer moving parts on an EV to replace - no timing belts, no oil changes, less brake wear, no turbo issues or blocked DPFs. Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff