Optimum Ownership Term

[Doofus]

I'm at the beginning of my EV research, so this may have been covered already.

Assume I pay cash for my cars (as I do), and assume I'm looking at 'long range' EVs - specifically Kia E-Niro or Jaguar I Pace. Assume it'll do 5,000 miles pa.

Given there are (as I understand it) question marks over the life of the battery packs, do we think the best approach is to sell and replace after, say, one year; to run the car until the batteries need replacing and then change, or something in between?

Or is this a case where I should break with tradition and lease the car?

I'm not interested in wringing the last penny from my ownership strategy; just wondering what ownership profiles will look like as more people adopt EVs.

[untruth]

I think the trick with EVs is the TCO is significantly less over a longer (7-10 years) period if you do a lot of miles. As the savings are all in the fuel (or not fuel, as it were), that's where the economies of scale come from. Given that, on short mileage it is more of a luxury.

But every calculator I've built or used says that after 7-10 years you're quids in with a decent mileage each year, even if you assume the resale value at that point is next to nothing.

Personally I think leasing is a very good model as aside from avoiding paying for gremlins that will happen over time on your own vehicle out of warranty, it is a very predictable depreciation model that you don't have to worry about in a market that is less than predictable right now. If someone cracks the 300 mile range with a joe-public car and gets it selling at volume, even a 3 year older car may not be so valuable.

[untruth]

FWIW, every bit of maths I do says that paying for depreciation on an EV right now combined with fuel costs is not much different to owning a new ICE car, or owning an older ICE that goes badly wrong suddenly. Plus, you get a nice car.

The only thing stopping me getting a lease is the lack of availability of longer range cars (in terms of limited supply, not whether they exist), making the market very uncompetitive. I love my (Evezy) i3, but I wouldn't own one for 3 years when I know range is going to improve dramatically on cars, whilst I have no clue if the charging network will. Once that supply starts to kick into gear, I will be happy to commit to a car for a few years.

[Gareth79]

Agreed, 5k miles pa will make it impossible for EV to justify in terms of cost savings. If the OP wants one just to try out then the Evezy thing might work?

[kambites]

Battery packs on cars like the Niro and iPace which are actively cooled should be good (90+% range) for 100k miles, so at 5k miles per year I'd say the "optimal" length of time to keep it from a purely financial point of view is over 20 years. Or more likely until you fancy a change or something else fails putting it beyond economical repair.

That's assuming you primarily slow charge at home, they degrade a bit faster if you regularly fast-charge but I still think the answer for the optimal term to keep any mainstream car will always be "until it falls to bits".

Edited by kambites on Friday 13th December 11:21

[ds666]

I personally would lease as there are some many new cars coming out over the next few years with better ranges

[sjg]

The whole "replacing batteries" thing - it's just not happening in any number and I don't see it being a commonplace practice.

Some early Leaf batteries aren't holding up so well, but this isn't like an ICE engine or gearbox just failing one day and either causing a massive bill or writing the car off. The cars with degraded batteries still work just fine, they simply won't go as far. Is someone with a <£5k Leaf going to spend thousands getting the range from 50 miles to 80 miles, or just sell it to someone who's needs are met by a 50 mile car? And when that tails off (because there's a plentiful enough supply of cheap used EVs) the battery pack is still worth a fair bit in other applications, probably a lot more than an old ICE powertrain.

It gets less extreme the bigger the battery pack is in the first place. Is a 10 year old e-Niro that can "only" do 180 miles (being very pessimistic) a worthless prospect unless the pack is replaced? Absolutely not.

I'm leasing an eGolf just because the deals were good, and at lower mileage it can make sense to. It probably doesn't make so much sense to lease one of the "long range" ones for lower mileages, but if you've got the cash spare then putting it into an e-Niro as a 10-15 year prospect isn't a bad idea IMO.

[gangzoom]

Am keeping our current EV for at least 8 years when the battery/motor warranty runs out.

Currently doing 14-15k a year, I think the battery pack will easily out last the rest of the car.

[Doofus]

Thanks all. I'm not interested in whole life costs, per se. I wouldn't be buying because it should be cheaper than an ICE car, just because I fancy an EV. That's what prompted my original question.

[Deadlysub]

I’m looking to make the jump to an EV and get a Model 3

The only thing holding me back is the finance deals

[untruth]

Another way to answer the question, is if you buy something, and a more interesting EV comes out next year, you can almost certainly sell it, and you will probably take less hit on the value than you would have spent on a lease. But you are gambling 30K+ of your own money that your car doesn't become a Cat C etc.

So, the answer is probably if you're up for the gamble, buy/sell. If you don't like the gamble, lease, but be prepared to be envious of all the new cars with better range next year.

[Doofus]

Realisticaly, I wouldn't need 250-odd miles of range, so a longer range replacement coming along next year wouldn't be an issue.

I don't like the idea of something that'll only do 100 miles, though. That feels like it would be too limiting.

[gangzoom]

untruth said:

So, the answer is probably if you're up for the gamble, buy/sell. If you don't like the gamble, lease, but be prepared to be envious of all the new cars with better range next year.

Am not at all convinced range will go much higher than the 200-300 mile EPA rating we are seeing, £100K+ Taycan with 200 miles EPA range and still no real mass deliveries, not much will change any time soon from most brands - not for lots of extra ££££ anyways.

If you really want range you can already buy a 370 miles EPA rated range Model S, and next year that will be more than 400+ miles with updated battery pack, but at £80K+ unless your using that extra every single day its a whole lot of cash to waste for no real day to day benefit. When we ordered our 'standard range' Tesla I looked at the price upgrade to a 'long range' version which had 50-75 miles more range, but when I looked at how often I would use those extra miles it worked out some thing like £150+ per trip for the extra range based on 5 years+ ownership and doing 1-2 trips per month to make use of the extra range. For £100 I'm happy to slow down a bit or spend 20 minutes charging.

However though our 24kWh Leaf was really cheap, not been able to do even a 35 miles round trip in winter without worrying about charge meant it didn't matter how cheap it was, the inconvenience isn't worth it.

if the range of any current EVs suit you fine, having higher range EVs has zero impact on how you use your EV.

Everyone usage is different, if there is an EV available today that suits your needs it will be a great car come 2025-2030, certainly much more relevant than any brand new combustion car you can buy.

EVs actually suit long term ownership very well, ours had done 31K with no maintenance apart from tyres and cabin filter. The actually battery I have no worries about lasting way past 150K+, the rest of the car is a different issue

For range estimates the website below is fantastic, just plug in your most common long distance trips, pick the EV your interested in and you can see just how little or much you need extra range. In my experience the website also gives you the 'worst case' numbers, so if the numbers work on the website in real life it'll be fine.

https://abetterrouteplanner.com

Edited by gangzoom on Friday 13th December 18:16

[Doofus]

And even though I'm considering EVs, I'm not, and have never, been convinced that they are the answer. I believe that hydrogen, for instance, is a better long-term solution, and that EVs are being built, plugged (teehee) and lauded because they use technology that is scalable today, whereas hydrogen has a number of technical and logistical concerns to overcome befote it can be mass-market.

I wonder if battery tech is the next diesel in the it's seen today as a Good Thing, and then several years down the line, we'll be aghast at the downstream ecological impact of battery production.

Anyway, that's a different conversation, and I'm not considering hydrogen fuel now, because the cars that use it are fk ugly.

[kambites]

It wont be popular on here, but realistically a large part of the long term solution is going to be to drive less.

[dmsims]

Doofus said:

I'm looking at 'long range' EVs - specifically Kia E-Niro or Jaguar I Pace. Assume it'll do 5,000 miles pa.

is this a joke? The Jaguar is NOT long range

[Doofus]

dmsims said:

is this a joke? The Jaguar is NOT long range

No, it's not a joke. What is long range, oh guru?

[dmsims]

Doofus said:

dmsims said:

is this a joke? The Jaguar is NOT long range

No, it's not a joke. What is long range, oh guru?

I would say any car that can do more than ~170 miles at 70mph at 10c (and it's rate of charge does not start to drop at 30% SOC)

[Doofus]

dmsims said:

Doofus said:

dmsims said:

is this a joke? The Jaguar is NOT long range

No, it's not a joke. What is long range, oh guru?

I would say any car that can do more than ~170 miles at 70mph at 10c (and it's rate of charge does not start to drop at 30% SOC)

Ok, so 'long range' is defined by your opinion. That's good to know.

And isn't the I-Pace in that range anyway?

[untruth]

Agree on the range thing... you pick a range you 'need' and if you can get that now, you're winning. I'm waiting for the approx 200 mile 'any weather' range before committing fully, but I may find that the charging infrastructure gets so much better than it doesn't matter anyway.