Battery tech and it's evolution
Discussion
I did use the search tool to see if anyone had posted something similar before. I couldn't see a dedicated thread for this topic so here I go...
Have we reached a plateau in terms of battery development? Or is it just really slow?
It seems processor and screen tech etc are constantly evolving and new tech is constantly being discovered and trickling down into consumer products. I see a lot of news about 'x material based' batteries but nothing ever seems to come to fruition.
I assume it's to do with the chemically unstable nature of certain materials in certain scenarios which requires longer testing?
Have we reached a plateau in terms of battery development? Or is it just really slow?
It seems processor and screen tech etc are constantly evolving and new tech is constantly being discovered and trickling down into consumer products. I see a lot of news about 'x material based' batteries but nothing ever seems to come to fruition.
I assume it's to do with the chemically unstable nature of certain materials in certain scenarios which requires longer testing?
Swanny87 said:
It seems processor and screen tech etc are constantly
Is this really ture? Hasn't actual CPU speeds plateaued and we are now just looking at multi core processors? As for screen tech, LCD is still king, OLED is getting there but its hardly new tech, developments started in the 1990s.Biggest change is falling cost, making the tech more accessible.
Lithium ion batteries will remain the backbone of EVs for a while yet. But falling costs is what will matter to consumers. Currently you need to pay £70k for a 90kWh EV, iPace or Tesla. But I reckon by 2025 it will half that cost.
There's also the huge amount of infrastructure already out there manufacturing the established technologies. For a lot of applications (mobile devices etc) the current battery technology is good enough (just), so what would be the driver behind changing over the thousands of factories and supply chains for very little gain?
I suspect that the big changes will come about when the way people use mobile technology (and that includes EV) changes. As it is, as long as your phone/tablet/car can get you through a day of use and you plug it in at night, there's no drive to change.
I suspect that the big changes will come about when the way people use mobile technology (and that includes EV) changes. As it is, as long as your phone/tablet/car can get you through a day of use and you plug it in at night, there's no drive to change.
Swanny87 said:
I did use the search tool to see if anyone had posted something similar before. I couldn't see a dedicated thread for this topic so here I go...
Have we reached a plateau in terms of battery development? Or is it just really slow?
It seems processor and screen tech etc are constantly evolving and new tech is constantly being discovered and trickling down into consumer products. I see a lot of news about 'x material based' batteries but nothing ever seems to come to fruition.
I assume it's to do with the chemically unstable nature of certain materials in certain scenarios which requires longer testing?
Certainly not, an interesting comparison for cost/size etc is the Nissan Leaf.Have we reached a plateau in terms of battery development? Or is it just really slow?
It seems processor and screen tech etc are constantly evolving and new tech is constantly being discovered and trickling down into consumer products. I see a lot of news about 'x material based' batteries but nothing ever seems to come to fruition.
I assume it's to do with the chemically unstable nature of certain materials in certain scenarios which requires longer testing?
It started as a 24kwh battery in 2011, then it went to a 30kwh in 2015 and now it's at 40kwh in 2018. In the same space and almost the same weight.
They are expecting to put in a 64kwh battery at the end of the year, although we're not sure if it's going in the same space but nevertheless that is an astonishing jump in tech/range/price/size in 8 years.
jjwilde said:
Certainly not, an interesting comparison for cost/size etc is the Nissan Leaf.
It started as a 24kwh battery in 2011, then it went to a 30kwh in 2015 and now it's at 40kwh in 2018. In the same space and almost the same weight.
They are expecting to put in a 64kwh battery at the end of the year, although we're not sure if it's going in the same space but nevertheless that is an astonishing jump in tech/range/price/size in 8 years.
But thats starting out from a very low base line, Tesla was at 85kWh back in 2012, currently 100kWh which is pushing the limit. Nissan had a 60kWh pack for the Leaf back in 2015. They even showed it off, but costs were far too high to make it viable for commercial release.It started as a 24kwh battery in 2011, then it went to a 30kwh in 2015 and now it's at 40kwh in 2018. In the same space and almost the same weight.
They are expecting to put in a 64kwh battery at the end of the year, although we're not sure if it's going in the same space but nevertheless that is an astonishing jump in tech/range/price/size in 8 years.
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100775_nissa...
However the battery packs in the Tesla Semi/Roadster 2.0 seem to have a massive jump in density, but still lithium ion.
Costs however will fall, there really is no need for better battery tech than lithium ion, what is needed is cheaper costs.
Battery energy density continues to improve constantly and several percentage points per year.
The delay on coming to market is partly because they're now tooled up to such huge quantities that there's a big investment (time and cost) to re-tool every time the design progresses whilst still being able to meet the huge demand for cells in the market.
The delay on coming to market is partly because they're now tooled up to such huge quantities that there's a big investment (time and cost) to re-tool every time the design progresses whilst still being able to meet the huge demand for cells in the market.
So 64k will be affordable (or available) by the end of this year/next year in 'normal' cars... at what point does it reach a level where it can't really get any bigger as there is no point? I'd say 100k. Most cars with a 100kwh battery would do 300+ miles in most conditions.
At that point the price just needs to keep gradually falling and we're set for an interesting future.
With 350kw chargers starting to be installed and Tesla and their electric lorry everything seems to be coming together for the 2020s to see a major shift.
At that point the price just needs to keep gradually falling and we're set for an interesting future.
With 350kw chargers starting to be installed and Tesla and their electric lorry everything seems to be coming together for the 2020s to see a major shift.
jjwilde said:
So 64k will be affordable (or available) by the end of this year/next year in 'normal' cars... at what point does it reach a level where it can't really get any bigger as there is no point? I'd say 100k. Most cars with a 100kwh battery would do 300+ miles in most conditions.
At that point the price just needs to keep gradually falling and we're set for an interesting future.
With 350kw chargers starting to be installed and Tesla and their electric lorry everything seems to be coming together for the 2020s to see a major shift.
I'm sure we'll see cars that go beyond the 100kWh capacity, especially those for towing or cruisers (think Passat, A6 etc)At that point the price just needs to keep gradually falling and we're set for an interesting future.
With 350kw chargers starting to be installed and Tesla and their electric lorry everything seems to be coming together for the 2020s to see a major shift.
I think small, affordable cars will peak at 60kWh.
jjwilde said:
So 64k will be affordable (or available) by the end of this year/next year in 'normal' cars... at what point does it reach a level where it can't really get any bigger as there is no point? I'd say 100k. Most cars with a 100kwh battery would do 300+ miles in most conditions.
At that point the price just needs to keep gradually falling and we're set for an interesting future.
With 350kw chargers starting to be installed and Tesla and their electric lorry everything seems to be coming together for the 2020s to see a major shift.
Definitely agree that the new 350kw charging standard, once generally available, will make a big difference. It will make stopping for 5-10 mins to get a decent charge in order to get home after a long journey a realistic proposition. At this point there won't be much speed advantage to filling with petrol. At that point the price just needs to keep gradually falling and we're set for an interesting future.
With 350kw chargers starting to be installed and Tesla and their electric lorry everything seems to be coming together for the 2020s to see a major shift.
It seems the next step in battery tech will be moving to solid state which should also give a decent step forward over the current tech. I read this is what Dyson believe they can bring to market and is why they are making such a big investment in the automotive sector.
I think you are right that a 100 kwh battery pack together with 350kw charging capability should give most people a reasonable EV alternative to petrol engines. Combine that with continued reduction in battery costs, anticipated in the next couple of years to be below $100 / kwh, the overall lifetime costs of owning an EV car will below that of petrol.
Plus I think pretty much all of the medium+ sized battery EV cars by 2020 will have 0-60 times below 6 seconds. Add in a few more incremental steps in autonomous self driving technology and it really does look like we are on the cusp of an automotive revolution.
V10 SPM said:
Plug Life said:
V10 SPM said:
What are the benefits of this?
As Musk would say, to give a smackdown to ICE crap.If they can buy a car on PCP for the same monthly payment as they're making now, get 250-300 miles per charge and charge at home and/or when shopping, quite a few will switch to EVs.
rscott said:
V10 SPM said:
Plug Life said:
V10 SPM said:
What are the benefits of this?
As Musk would say, to give a smackdown to ICE crap.If they can buy a car on PCP for the same monthly payment as they're making now, get 250-300 miles per charge and charge at home and/or when shopping, quite a few will switch to EVs.
V10 SPM said:
What are the benefits of this?
It helps with the on going claim that electric cars are 'milk floats' or somehow slow, plus it's nice and easy to achieve it. Why not? It's incredibly fun being about to go fast without making a load of noise and bringing attention to yourself.The point I was trying to make about the acceleration was a more of a side point. Once manufacturers can afford to build cars with reasonable sized batteries it is relatively easy to get them to accelerate quickly as the larger batteries can provide the necessary current and the extra cost of larger motors is minimal.
Hence in 5 years time we are going to see even fairly modest EVs have acceleration up to motorway speeds that was the preserve of "performance cars" from just a few years back.
Hence in 5 years time we are going to see even fairly modest EVs have acceleration up to motorway speeds that was the preserve of "performance cars" from just a few years back.
rscott said:
V10 SPM said:
Plug Life said:
V10 SPM said:
What are the benefits of this?
As Musk would say, to give a smackdown to ICE crap.If they can buy a car on PCP for the same monthly payment as they're making now, get 250-300 miles per charge and charge at home and/or when shopping, quite a few will switch to EVs.
I think you’re right but we seem to still be a good way off having that.
Many also need a car of a certain size, with good long distance capability, in terms of comfort and features. There’s really nothing affordable for most, yet.
Basic lithium ion cell gravimetric density seams to be evolving only slowly, best is around 250Wh/Kg. The first Leaf pack was barley 100Wh/Kg so big progress in packaging. Commercials and perhaps specialist sports cars might accept heaver batteries than 500Kg but I suspect that's more the limit for ordinary stuff. So I don't see 100KWh being broken and agree 60KWh may be more the limit. So most progress is in reducing cost.
High performance is easy to achieve with electric vehicles and a side effect really of high range. Lithium ion is easily capable of rates in excess of 10C, re the increasing number of man carrying drones, hover boards etc. appearing.
I'm sure the phone and gadget makers would like more capacity and this to seams to have plateaued.
Maybe a game changer or breakthrough is just around the corner with solid state etc.
High performance is easy to achieve with electric vehicles and a side effect really of high range. Lithium ion is easily capable of rates in excess of 10C, re the increasing number of man carrying drones, hover boards etc. appearing.
I'm sure the phone and gadget makers would like more capacity and this to seams to have plateaued.
Maybe a game changer or breakthrough is just around the corner with solid state etc.
If you look at bog standard Lithium Ion 18650 cells, these seem to have stagnated in the amount of energy that can be stored in them in the last 5 years or so, this despite all the additional investment that motor manufacturers have poured into battery research that wasn’t there previously.
For years they have been talking of massive breakthroughs using Graphene or other techniques, but none as yet seem to have filtered down to the actual cells used. The technology really needs a step forward in battery technology either in energy density, cost, weight or charge rate to make a real difference to the end user.
For years they have been talking of massive breakthroughs using Graphene or other techniques, but none as yet seem to have filtered down to the actual cells used. The technology really needs a step forward in battery technology either in energy density, cost, weight or charge rate to make a real difference to the end user.
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff