Fast Forwarded to 2040
Discussion
Out for a cycle this morning, pretty much in the middle of nowhere in the Cheshire countryside about 7.30am and was passed by an all electric delivery van heading in my direction and at the same time a Tesla Model X going in the opposite direction. Felt a bit surreal and eerie having both coming past silently, especially as I didn't realise there were all electric vans out there. A quick google and it looks like it was a Nissan e-NV200. I've seen many Tesla's round here with them having a showroom in Knutsford and knew they were quick, but the van accelerated away pretty rapid too!
[quote=buggalugs
The way things are going I think the governments 2040 rule is going to be irrelevant, I can see most sales being hybrid in 10 years never mind 20 odd.
[/quote]
The idea of no new ICE only cars is achievable well ahead of 2040. The cars are already coming, look outside Tesla and most car companies are going that way - even Morgan and Aston.
VAG have the MEB platform coming in 2 years, the cost of development of this platform will be spread across 4 brands minimum, and several 100000 vehicles.
Technology wise Toyota are production testing solid batteries, Tesla have opened patents and there is a world wide drive to make EV's happen, in time autonomous EV's.
many talk about supplying the necessary power, by 2025 there will be about 5500 wind turbines around the UK. The ones going in now are 6MW machines, 8MW are coming to market and I've seen a 12MW machine. If the average machine is 6MW on average by 2025, 5500 machines is 33GW, or 10 Hinkley Point C's
In addition, look to solar, the average radiation across the UK is 1kW/m2, my garage roof is 25m2 so 25kW. Now panels are only 20% efficient so 5kW, over 8 hours that's 40kWh, store this in a battery during the day and you have enough power to charge an 80kWh EV to 50% with no load on the grid. Another thing about solar is there is no additional land take, use existing roofs.
I put a mid range Model S up against my XJR, there was little in it for acceleration, but the Jaguar was quieter.
My plan, build up a collection of ICE cars and drive an EV. Looking to get the first one in 2019.
The way things are going I think the governments 2040 rule is going to be irrelevant, I can see most sales being hybrid in 10 years never mind 20 odd.
[/quote]
The idea of no new ICE only cars is achievable well ahead of 2040. The cars are already coming, look outside Tesla and most car companies are going that way - even Morgan and Aston.
VAG have the MEB platform coming in 2 years, the cost of development of this platform will be spread across 4 brands minimum, and several 100000 vehicles.
Technology wise Toyota are production testing solid batteries, Tesla have opened patents and there is a world wide drive to make EV's happen, in time autonomous EV's.
many talk about supplying the necessary power, by 2025 there will be about 5500 wind turbines around the UK. The ones going in now are 6MW machines, 8MW are coming to market and I've seen a 12MW machine. If the average machine is 6MW on average by 2025, 5500 machines is 33GW, or 10 Hinkley Point C's
In addition, look to solar, the average radiation across the UK is 1kW/m2, my garage roof is 25m2 so 25kW. Now panels are only 20% efficient so 5kW, over 8 hours that's 40kWh, store this in a battery during the day and you have enough power to charge an 80kWh EV to 50% with no load on the grid. Another thing about solar is there is no additional land take, use existing roofs.
I put a mid range Model S up against my XJR, there was little in it for acceleration, but the Jaguar was quieter.
My plan, build up a collection of ICE cars and drive an EV. Looking to get the first one in 2019.
buggalugs said:
I saw a Tesla in Stoke the other day, had to sit down for a minute.
The way things are going I think the governments 2040 rule is going to be irrelevant, I can see most sales being hybrid in 10 years never mind 20 odd.
Don't get too carried away with the hype and trendiness.The way things are going I think the governments 2040 rule is going to be irrelevant, I can see most sales being hybrid in 10 years never mind 20 odd.
Even the most wildly optimistic forecasters right now only expect 40% of UK car sales to be electric or hybrid by 2040.
Electrics have been around 20 years and they only account for 1% of UK vehicle sales today in 2017.
And where subsidies have been removed recently, like Denmark, electric and hybrid sales collapsed -90% overnight.
LD334 said:
[quote=buggalugs
The way things are going I think the governments 2040 rule is going to be irrelevant, I can see most sales being hybrid in 10 years never mind 20 odd.
The idea of no new ICE only cars is achievable well ahead of 2040. The cars are already coming, look outside Tesla and most car companies are going that way - even Morgan and Aston.The way things are going I think the governments 2040 rule is going to be irrelevant, I can see most sales being hybrid in 10 years never mind 20 odd.
VAG have the MEB platform coming in 2 years, the cost of development of this platform will be spread across 4 brands minimum, and several 100000 vehicles.
Technology wise Toyota are production testing solid batteries, Tesla have opened patents and there is a world wide drive to make EV's happen, in time autonomous EV's.
many talk about supplying the necessary power, by 2025 there will be about 5500 wind turbines around the UK. The ones going in now are 6MW machines, 8MW are coming to market and I've seen a 12MW machine. If the average machine is 6MW on average by 2025, 5500 machines is 33GW, or 10 Hinkley Point C's
In addition, look to solar, the average radiation across the UK is 1kW/m2, my garage roof is 25m2 so 25kW. Now panels are only 20% efficient so 5kW, over 8 hours that's 40kWh, store this in a battery during the day and you have enough power to charge an 80kWh EV to 50% with no load on the grid. Another thing about solar is there is no additional land take, use existing roofs.
I put a mid range Model S up against my XJR, there was little in it for acceleration, but the Jaguar was quieter.
My plan, build up a collection of ICE cars and drive an EV. Looking to get the first one in 2019.
Your 25m2 @ 20% efficiency will deliver ~ 20Kwh per day in July and around 1.5kwh in December if you live in Nottingham.
25m2 is a big array!
https://blog.abundanceinvestment.com/2014/12/here-...
For a wind turbine multiply by ~0.3 to get its true output, for a nuke plant 0.92.
FWIW, some real world numbers for the calculations. Just had 26m2 of Sunpower panels installed onto a somewhat non-optimal roof. Midlands region.
For July:
Highest output was 36kWh
Lowest was 8kWh
Average for month was 22kWh per day/total of 703kWh
With the Powerwall, we used 600kWh that month, 22kWh from grid, 131kWh exported.
Charged the hybrid from that as well, although not sure how many charges it had in that period.
(numbers not utterly accurate, some rounding which is why they don't quite add up properly)
For July:
Highest output was 36kWh
Lowest was 8kWh
Average for month was 22kWh per day/total of 703kWh
With the Powerwall, we used 600kWh that month, 22kWh from grid, 131kWh exported.
Charged the hybrid from that as well, although not sure how many charges it had in that period.
(numbers not utterly accurate, some rounding which is why they don't quite add up properly)
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