Cheap EV running costs...how long will it last?
Discussion
Contemplating this today.
At the moment, EV users can realise some great savings on their motoring costs.
No tax to pay, no congestion or emission zone charges and you can travel 60-80 miles on a charge which may have cost you a couple of quid.
However, I have read (on here) of one public charge point charging £5.50 for a 45 minute charge and £0.15/min for every minute over that. Assuming this nets you 80% charge and a range of 60-70 miles you're closing in on 10 p a mile running costs which is awfully close to some small capacity diesels today. Granted they still don't benefit from other good points like superior refinement.
I am quite surprised that some one has saw fit to increase the cost of charging to such a level so soon.
Then I was thinking. When EV's are the default car choice, all this cheapness is sure to vanish.
The huge pot of money collected in fuel duty and VAT on fuel - gone
congestion charges - gone
road fund license - gone
An electrical network that, IMO isn't currently fit to serve a country were everyone will be tugging on it on an evening to charge their cars. The investment in wind and solar will not help this because they are 1) not reliable and 2) have high cost per MWh generated. We have no new nuclear and thus still reliant on coal with all its pollution levies and green subsidies to pay for. Oh and importing power from our neighbors. More demand, less supply (or more expensive supply if you do arrange it) = electricity costs going up.
This happens in California for example (which I know is a basket case) but when its hot their electricity prices can reach 40 cents a kWh because of the high demand and relative lack of abundant supply.
On to maintenance and servicing... Batteries are showing good life, but they will eventually need replacment. I have read of main dealers charging upwards of £120 for a Leafs first service which amounts to nothing more than a tyre kick and plugging a laptop in to run checks. I can fully service my conventional ICE car for not a lot more. So I don't really see much in the way of savings there.
So right now, running costs for the early adopters seems very favorable, but once joe schmoe public is running around in EVs I think the ludicrously cheap running costs will vanish as people like the government, dealers, electricity companies find ways to recoup lost tax revenue, recoup profits and meet electricity demands.
And we'll be back to personal transport costing the same 15-20ppm it costs today.
A case of the more things change, the more they stay the same? Is my logic and thinking wrong? Granted, we should see big improvement in local air pollution, noise pollution and people will be enjoying orders of magnitude improvement in refinement and ease of use.
At the moment, EV users can realise some great savings on their motoring costs.
No tax to pay, no congestion or emission zone charges and you can travel 60-80 miles on a charge which may have cost you a couple of quid.
However, I have read (on here) of one public charge point charging £5.50 for a 45 minute charge and £0.15/min for every minute over that. Assuming this nets you 80% charge and a range of 60-70 miles you're closing in on 10 p a mile running costs which is awfully close to some small capacity diesels today. Granted they still don't benefit from other good points like superior refinement.
I am quite surprised that some one has saw fit to increase the cost of charging to such a level so soon.
Then I was thinking. When EV's are the default car choice, all this cheapness is sure to vanish.
The huge pot of money collected in fuel duty and VAT on fuel - gone
congestion charges - gone
road fund license - gone
An electrical network that, IMO isn't currently fit to serve a country were everyone will be tugging on it on an evening to charge their cars. The investment in wind and solar will not help this because they are 1) not reliable and 2) have high cost per MWh generated. We have no new nuclear and thus still reliant on coal with all its pollution levies and green subsidies to pay for. Oh and importing power from our neighbors. More demand, less supply (or more expensive supply if you do arrange it) = electricity costs going up.
This happens in California for example (which I know is a basket case) but when its hot their electricity prices can reach 40 cents a kWh because of the high demand and relative lack of abundant supply.
On to maintenance and servicing... Batteries are showing good life, but they will eventually need replacment. I have read of main dealers charging upwards of £120 for a Leafs first service which amounts to nothing more than a tyre kick and plugging a laptop in to run checks. I can fully service my conventional ICE car for not a lot more. So I don't really see much in the way of savings there.
So right now, running costs for the early adopters seems very favorable, but once joe schmoe public is running around in EVs I think the ludicrously cheap running costs will vanish as people like the government, dealers, electricity companies find ways to recoup lost tax revenue, recoup profits and meet electricity demands.
And we'll be back to personal transport costing the same 15-20ppm it costs today.
A case of the more things change, the more they stay the same? Is my logic and thinking wrong? Granted, we should see big improvement in local air pollution, noise pollution and people will be enjoying orders of magnitude improvement in refinement and ease of use.
In the future EVs will cost nearly as much to run as petrol engined cars do, but without the flexibility. Removal of exemption such as road tax, cong charge etc. It's worth remembering petrol is only so expensive because that's how the govt wants it. So when they want to make money from EVs they will.
Good luck getting 60-80 miles from a 80% charge.
I only just managed 66 miles at 60mph at 95% charge!
I don't have a drive, so I rely on public charging. As soon as prices go anywhere near running a petrol car, I'm going back to petrol.
Having a electric car can be a pain, but I accept the pain for the savings in fuel costs.
I only just managed 66 miles at 60mph at 95% charge!
I don't have a drive, so I rely on public charging. As soon as prices go anywhere near running a petrol car, I'm going back to petrol.
Having a electric car can be a pain, but I accept the pain for the savings in fuel costs.
Otispunkmeyer said:
Then I was thinking. When EV's are the default car choice, all this cheapness is sure to vanish.
Of course.At the end of the day, the government spend a certain amount of money per year. To do that, they have to receive that amount of money in (or something close to it...). If the income from fuel duty etc disappears, it's going to have to come from somewhere.
Who said "Road pricing"? Own up, dammit...
Phunk said:
Good luck getting 60-80 miles from a 80% charge.
I only just managed 66 miles at 60mph at 95% charge!
I don't have a drive, so I rely on public charging. As soon as prices go anywhere near running a petrol car, I'm going back to petrol.
Having a electric car can be a pain, but I accept the pain for the savings in fuel costs.
Ah yes, but I am assuming that by such a time, EVs will not be such a pain to use as they are (for some) now. I am talking a good 150-200 mi range on a charge and charging times not too dissimilar (or maybe faster) than now.I only just managed 66 miles at 60mph at 95% charge!
I don't have a drive, so I rely on public charging. As soon as prices go anywhere near running a petrol car, I'm going back to petrol.
Having a electric car can be a pain, but I accept the pain for the savings in fuel costs.
What I am getting at is how people see the EV.... for those who view it as a way to cheap motoring for now and the future I think they'll be sorely disappointed. But for those who see it as a better way to travel (better refinement, easier to drive, better performance, potentially less mechanical maintenance costs if the dealers can stomach it) for the same overall cost as they would pay now with a ICE car, then I think they'll be very happy.
The main benefit that has driven electric cars is BIK, capital allowances and the 35k purchase offset.
At 0 or 5 % BIK it made sense but given the value of the car starts to look less attractive at 9 % or more. I suspect most will take cash equivalent instead.
The £5k will finish this year and be replaced with a tier system that will probably be less attractive.
At 0 or 5 % BIK it made sense but given the value of the car starts to look less attractive at 9 % or more. I suspect most will take cash equivalent instead.
The £5k will finish this year and be replaced with a tier system that will probably be less attractive.
Having now had an EV for 6 months, I'm NEVER going back to a petrol car, the electric motor is simply so much better as a way of moving from A to B.
I've already decided when my PCP deal on the Leaf ends I'll be replacing it with a Tesla Model S. My cost per month will go from £200 -> £780. That's MORE than what I was spending on my previous 335i, but I don't care, I'll happly pay a premium to drive any EV compared to a petrol car.
I don't really care about where the eletricity comes from, coal/nuclear/solar, as long as I get it I'm happy. But I will be getting a solar PV + storage battery installed at our next house, which will help to reduce our electricty bill by a decent margin, and since our next house will probably last us 20 years or so, the initial investment will more than pay for it self.
I've already decided when my PCP deal on the Leaf ends I'll be replacing it with a Tesla Model S. My cost per month will go from £200 -> £780. That's MORE than what I was spending on my previous 335i, but I don't care, I'll happly pay a premium to drive any EV compared to a petrol car.
I don't really care about where the eletricity comes from, coal/nuclear/solar, as long as I get it I'm happy. But I will be getting a solar PV + storage battery installed at our next house, which will help to reduce our electricty bill by a decent margin, and since our next house will probably last us 20 years or so, the initial investment will more than pay for it self.
Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 27th August 16:11
gangzoom said:
Having now had an EV for 6 months, I'm NEVER going back to a petrol car, the electric motor is simply so much better as a way of moving from A to B.
I've already decided when my PCP deal on the Leaf ends I'll be replacing it with a Tesla Model S. My cost per month will go from £200 -> £780. That's MORE than what I was spending on my previous 335i, but I don't care, I'll happly pay a premium to drive any EV compared to a petrol car.
This is where I'm at, certainly for my everyday car. No I don't go on sunday morning drives in my Leaf (I borrow a motorbike for that)I've already decided when my PCP deal on the Leaf ends I'll be replacing it with a Tesla Model S. My cost per month will go from £200 -> £780. That's MORE than what I was spending on my previous 335i, but I don't care, I'll happly pay a premium to drive any EV compared to a petrol car.
But the refinement is leagues above so called premium diesel cars. I had a brand new (2015) C250 Amg Line saloon and the engine noise was horrible and droning, the wind noise was a lot higher than I was expecting and the gearbox didn't quite know what I wanted to do next.
The Leaf looks 'challenging' compared to the Merc, the interior doesn't look as well finished but has all the right toys and tech. The car is quiet not just because there's no engine, but the wind noise is also quieter than most sub £50k cars I've been in and of course the drivetrain is seamless.
Government will get their money back - look at the changes to road tax from next year. Their main target is diesels and small petrols as these are sold in the millions and that has cost the Government more than the few thousand electric cars. Even if the EV market goes up at 1000% over the next few years they will still represent a small proportion of lost revenue.
If I had a choice of a generic small diesel engine in a generic car or an EV I know what I would do...
Plus this range thing is a mindset problem rather than a real world problem. If you worked in an office (e.g. single place of work and not powerfully built wandering directors travelling 100,000 a year) had a petrol of diesel pump in your driveway (because no powerfully built PH'ers live in flats, right?) that would give you £15 of fuel each and every night, would you moan about a car that only does 100 miles? If you never needed to wait for morons buying their weekly shop while you then try and get it to a nice round £20.00 'fill-up', would you still think EVs are daft?
I'd pay extra to avoid petrol stations, never mind get a car that's cheaper to run!
But a shorter answer to the OP - double or triple the price of running and EV and I'm still happy!
Edited by PKLD on Thursday 27th August 16:53
PKLD said:
I'd pay extra to avoid petrol stations, never mind get a car that's cheaper to run!
Amazingly this is the experience we've had. Instead of been an 'inconvenience', been able to charge at home is turning out to be much more convenient than going to a petrol station.This week, after getting back to work, I realised there was a 60 mile round trip coming up. We haven’t been driving the Lexus much, and my wife told me it’s fuel light has been on for a while so only had 30 miles of ‘range’. The Leaf had about the same. So the most convenient (and cheapest) option was simply plug the Leaf overnight (1 minute job – plus sleeping overnight), rather than go and take the Lexus to the nearest petrol station, fill up, and come home, which would have been a 15 minute round trip by the time you take traffic, and waiting at the petrol station into account
gangzoom said:
PKLD said:
I'd pay extra to avoid petrol stations, never mind get a car that's cheaper to run!
Amazingly this is the experience we've had. Instead of been an 'inconvenience', been able to charge at home is turning out to be much more convenient than going to a petrol station.This week, after getting back to work, I realised there was a 60 mile round trip coming up. We haven’t been driving the Lexus much, and my wife told me it’s fuel light has been on for a while so only had 30 miles of ‘range’. The Leaf had about the same. So the most convenient (and cheapest) option was simply plug the Leaf overnight (1 minute job – plus sleeping overnight), rather than go and take the Lexus to the nearest petrol station, fill up, and come home, which would have been a 15 minute round trip by the time you take traffic, and waiting at the petrol station into account
You mentioned people living in flats, we live in a house but have no off road parking, in much of London you're lucky to park near your house, the rest is flats. So you've somewhere with millions of residents that would be ideal for electric cars and it's often not possible to charge your car at home.
The limited range of the current cheaper EVs is a hold back for many, hence I'm going to replace my Leaf with a Tesla that has a real world range of >200 miles comfortably. But again not every one can spend £50K on a car, however Nissan/VW/GM are all working hard on a cheaper 200 mile range EV.
I do agree that charging is a probelm for people living in flats. But essenitally any EV can charge off any 3-pin plug without any issues. So infurstructure needs to be better developed, a newly built mutlistory car park near us has a dozen 3 pin sockets on every level (7 levels in total). I cannot imagine putting that kind of wiring in added to the cost, but thanks to the foward planning of the developer we are now much more likely to park at their car park when we go shopping compared to any other.
But if your commuting/home situation fits with an EV already than there is no reason not to consider one when your changing cars.
I do agree that charging is a probelm for people living in flats. But essenitally any EV can charge off any 3-pin plug without any issues. So infurstructure needs to be better developed, a newly built mutlistory car park near us has a dozen 3 pin sockets on every level (7 levels in total). I cannot imagine putting that kind of wiring in added to the cost, but thanks to the foward planning of the developer we are now much more likely to park at their car park when we go shopping compared to any other.
But if your commuting/home situation fits with an EV already than there is no reason not to consider one when your changing cars.
Good question OP. It was me that posted about this public charging point at 5.50/45 mins plus 15p/min afterwards. Also pay and display parking charges on top apparently.
Found another one at Webbs of Wychbold just off M5 J5 on the A38 towards Droitwich. Again it's the Charge your Car Network.
Agree with the views that the politicians will change the rules to meet their income requirements. If such charge levels are to become common place then the users who will retain most benefit from EV use will continue to be those whose usage pattern is such that it's possible to charge most of the time at home where the price is, to some degree, controllable. What happens in the future with that is anyone's guess, smart meters etc. Yes I know they're not compulsory however much the powers that be would like you to think they are.
At the moment the savings from bik, tax, congestion charging is the main driver. For those of us where tax is the only factor, eg bik not applicable etc, then the whole equation becomes more difficult.
The question that I raise is that EVs are expensive in terms of full list price for what you get. Ok it's argued that this is down to the battery cost. But what will happen longer term. I believe manufacturers are charging what they think they can get away with, much like 125 quid for a kick the tyres plug in the laptop service.
Of course they have huge development costs to recover amortised over relatively few units. What will happen to prices further out?
So many unanswered questions, though privately hoping CyC get stiffed for their 5.50 charge. The Webbs site says you can access it with a £20 per year RFID card or the PaYG app. Then lists the charge. Question, does anyone know if the RFID card is just for access and then free leccy, or still get the additional cost? Midlands plugged network used to be £20 for an RFID card and free electricity after that. But that's now run by Chargemaster not CyC.
Found another one at Webbs of Wychbold just off M5 J5 on the A38 towards Droitwich. Again it's the Charge your Car Network.
Agree with the views that the politicians will change the rules to meet their income requirements. If such charge levels are to become common place then the users who will retain most benefit from EV use will continue to be those whose usage pattern is such that it's possible to charge most of the time at home where the price is, to some degree, controllable. What happens in the future with that is anyone's guess, smart meters etc. Yes I know they're not compulsory however much the powers that be would like you to think they are.
At the moment the savings from bik, tax, congestion charging is the main driver. For those of us where tax is the only factor, eg bik not applicable etc, then the whole equation becomes more difficult.
The question that I raise is that EVs are expensive in terms of full list price for what you get. Ok it's argued that this is down to the battery cost. But what will happen longer term. I believe manufacturers are charging what they think they can get away with, much like 125 quid for a kick the tyres plug in the laptop service.
Of course they have huge development costs to recover amortised over relatively few units. What will happen to prices further out?
So many unanswered questions, though privately hoping CyC get stiffed for their 5.50 charge. The Webbs site says you can access it with a £20 per year RFID card or the PaYG app. Then lists the charge. Question, does anyone know if the RFID card is just for access and then free leccy, or still get the additional cost? Midlands plugged network used to be £20 for an RFID card and free electricity after that. But that's now run by Chargemaster not CyC.
FiF said:
The question that I raise is that EVs are expensive in terms of full list price for what you get.
Are they??The total cost my Leaf deal over 2 years is £4800 - This is for a car the same size as a Golf, sat nav, auto everything, keyless entry etc..
A Ford Fiesta (I didn't look that hard), which is smaller, slower, less well sepced costs £4290 over 2 years.
So the Leaf is hardly any more expensive interms of finance costs, expect fuels costs are 2p/mile in the Leaf verus 10p/mile in the Fiesta. So by the time you've done 10K, the Fiesta is already more expensive.
The Tesla I'm planning on getting next is the base 70S - 0-60 and size wise its not far off a BMW 535i. The Tesla with options comes out at £55K. I've just specced up a 535i to the same level...The 535i is £40 cheaper, having pervious owned a 335i, I know £40 worth of fuel is less than half a tank. So for me picking an EV over an comparable petrol/diesel car is a no-brainer. Clearly as discussed earlier you do need to have off road parking, and be aware that these cars have a different refuelling routine.
Edited by gangzoom on Friday 28th August 12:22
gangzoom said:
FiF said:
The question that I raise is that EVs are expensive in terms of full list price for what you get.
Are they??The total cost my Leaf deal over 2 years is £4800 - This is for a car the same size as a Golf, sat nav, auto everything, keyless entry etc..
A Ford Fiesta (I didn't look that hard), which is smaller, slower, less well sepced costs £4290 over 2 years.
So the Leaf is hardly any more expensive interms of finance costs, expect fuels costs are 2p/mile in the Leaf verus 10p/mile in the Fiesta. So by the time you've done 10K, the Fiesta is already more expensive.
The Tesla I'm planning on getting next is the base 70S - 0-60 and size wise its not far off a BMW 535i. The Tesla with options comes out at £55K. I've just specced up a 535i to the same level...The 535i is £40 cheaper, having pervious owned a 335i, I know £40 worth of fuel is less than half a tank. So for me picking an EV over an comparable petrol/diesel car is a no-brainer. Clearly as discussed earlier you do need to have off road parking, and be aware that these cars have a different refuelling routine.
Edited by gangzoom on Friday 28th August 12:22
FiF said:
Errr full list price I said. So that's without the 5k taxpayer incentive which at some point WILL end. This approach is more in line with the question that the OP was asking one suggests.
What makes you think prices of EV will jump by £5K after any incentives end?? No one actually knows how much these things are costing to produce. Inherently aside from the battery EVs are simple to make, far easier than convential petrol cars. With battery prices falling all the time I personally wouldnt be suprised we (the end consumer) see no changes in prices after the grant ends. We'll find out soon enough, but probably no-unitll 2017-18. The current grant will run till Feb-2016, and than it's likley the £5K lump sum will only be given to full battery cars, not things like Mistubishi PHEV or the GTE etc.
Kindly point out where I have said prices will jump by 5k. You're another of these people infesting PH who don't read what people actually write but put some twist on it.
I asked what will happen to prices not I think x will happen. Ok?
Stop thinking short term, eg what's the situation today or in 2016, but reread the OP and look longer term when EVs are much more mainstream.
It's clear subsidies will drop in the longer term. Anybody who thinks otherwise is deluded. The timescale for that is unknown but probably sooner than many would like. Just today, ministers have signalled that subsidy and fit for solar panels will drop to 10% of what it was and maybe be completely removed within 4/5 years. It's the way things are going and support for EV when they really take off will be no different.
When it does who knows what will happen to pricing?
But seeing as you've asked about pricing. Maybe currently manufacturers look at the otr pricing of clear ice competitors and pitch their list pricing to be competitive after the subsidy. So when the subsidy goes what will they do? Raise prices so no longer competitive? Keep competitive and reduce margin? Who knows I don't except that market prices will rule.
I asked what will happen to prices not I think x will happen. Ok?
Stop thinking short term, eg what's the situation today or in 2016, but reread the OP and look longer term when EVs are much more mainstream.
It's clear subsidies will drop in the longer term. Anybody who thinks otherwise is deluded. The timescale for that is unknown but probably sooner than many would like. Just today, ministers have signalled that subsidy and fit for solar panels will drop to 10% of what it was and maybe be completely removed within 4/5 years. It's the way things are going and support for EV when they really take off will be no different.
When it does who knows what will happen to pricing?
But seeing as you've asked about pricing. Maybe currently manufacturers look at the otr pricing of clear ice competitors and pitch their list pricing to be competitive after the subsidy. So when the subsidy goes what will they do? Raise prices so no longer competitive? Keep competitive and reduce margin? Who knows I don't except that market prices will rule.
FiF said:
Kindly point out where I have said prices will jump by 5k. You're another of these people infesting PH who don't read what people actually write but put some twist on it.
A Nissan Leaf after the £5K government grant in 2012 was £27K. You can now get a Leaf for £21K - and Nissan is about to release a version with a bigger battery.A base spec RHD Tesla Model S in 2014 (last year) was £50K came with 60kWh battery and supercharging was £5K extra. The base RHD Model S now comes with a 70 kWh battery and supercharging included (Essentially £10K worth of 'extras' for no increase in price) - again Tesla have said battery capacity will increase by 5-10% per year for the same cost.
As i've said prices are falling, and quite quickly. Remember these are technology products, and like all technology prices fall quickly with mass production. Remember when OLED TV panels cost £5K+ 18 months ago, and now you can pick one up for £1.5K....It's called progress. A concept traditional car companies simply don't seem to understand
Edited by gangzoom on Friday 28th August 20:51
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