Toyota or Tesla?
Discussion
Which way will it be in the future, fuel cell or battery?
Tesla I looked at was very impressive and seemed to be the way forward but having been quiet for some time we now see this http://www.toyota.com/fuelcell/
Will the fuel cell development overtake the Tesla technology?
Tesla I looked at was very impressive and seemed to be the way forward but having been quiet for some time we now see this http://www.toyota.com/fuelcell/
Will the fuel cell development overtake the Tesla technology?
IMO current tech attery powered cars are a stopgap technology. Heavy, expensive, impossible to produce enough to satisfy global demand unless there's a radical change in their chemistry.
Fuel cells seem to be a much more sensible longer term answer, if the massive infrastructure hurdles can be overcome.
Fuel cells seem to be a much more sensible longer term answer, if the massive infrastructure hurdles can be overcome.
charltjr said:
IMO current tech attery powered cars are a stopgap technology. Heavy, expensive, impossible to produce enough to satisfy global demand unless there's a radical change in their chemistry.
Fuel cells seem to be a much more sensible longer term answer, if the massive infrastructure hurdles can be overcome.
I agree with this.Fuel cells seem to be a much more sensible longer term answer, if the massive infrastructure hurdles can be overcome.
I was actually going to start a poll on this topic but I couldn't work out how to do it
Having been sceptical at the beginning, I now think that Toyota and Honda have called this one right. The future will be hydrogen fuel cells with hydrogen generated on-site at filling stations rather than being transported around.
I spoke to someone from Toyota about this a while ago. He said that Toyota's view is that there is no known improvement in battery technology that will move the ball forward significantly enough for them to become a complete replacement for the ICE, and there never will be. It's hybrids and then hydrogen, with battery EVs taking a small but sizeable niche.
In the other corner you have Elon Musk, who said:
Elon Musk said:
They’re mind-bogglingly stupid. You can’t even have a sensible debate.
Consider the whole fuel cell system against a Model S. It’s far worse in volume and mass terms, and far, far, worse in cost. And I haven’t even talked about hydrogen being so hard to handle.
Success is simply not possible.
Another view is that with the oil price falling, all of this will turn out to be a fad and we will stick with petrol and diesel.Consider the whole fuel cell system against a Model S. It’s far worse in volume and mass terms, and far, far, worse in cost. And I haven’t even talked about hydrogen being so hard to handle.
Success is simply not possible.
My company promotes electric and hydrogen vehicles. The problem with hydrogen is not infrastructure - in the UK there are not many refuelling facilities at present - London is the biggest for the RV1 hydrogen bus fleet - yes the busses are second generation hydrogen vehicles and in public service. The refuelling facility technology is relatively straightforward. You can refuel off the back of an Air Products Tanker and much faster than even a supercharger. The range for hydrogen is much better per kg and volume than batteries but the real issue is the expense of the fuel cell. Initially the cars will need to be light and not highly powered. The route in my view will be increasing numbers of plug in hybrids, electric cars for in city use and the more expensive electric cars and hydrogen for range.
Vanin said:
Which way will it be in the future, fuel cell or battery?
Tesla I looked at was very impressive and seemed to be the way forward but having been quiet for some time we now see this http://www.toyota.com/fuelcell/
Will the fuel cell development overtake the Tesla technology?
Look at how a fuel cell car worksTesla I looked at was very impressive and seemed to be the way forward but having been quiet for some time we now see this http://www.toyota.com/fuelcell/
Will the fuel cell development overtake the Tesla technology?
A fuel cell produces power which charges a battery which powers an electric motor
It is basically an electric car with a small power station onboard
Improvements in battery and electric motor tech helps both
i don't think the future will be one or the other
It will be both
Two other factors may influence the direction.
Firstly I understood from initial reports of the fuel cell, that the hydrogen was stored at some enormous pressure. Since the passengers seem to be sitting over the tanks or at least in close proximity, there may well be a perception that you are sitting on a bomb.
With the battery powered cars, I could see more sense if a form of cassette was produced where you pulled up to the garage, pushed a button on the dashboard and a smaller battery cassette came out (just like a CD only bigger) and you replaced it with a ready charged standard item which may have been charged on the garage roof with solar or some other renewable electricity.
The cars would become lighter and range would not be an issue once the infrastructure was sorted.
Firstly I understood from initial reports of the fuel cell, that the hydrogen was stored at some enormous pressure. Since the passengers seem to be sitting over the tanks or at least in close proximity, there may well be a perception that you are sitting on a bomb.
With the battery powered cars, I could see more sense if a form of cassette was produced where you pulled up to the garage, pushed a button on the dashboard and a smaller battery cassette came out (just like a CD only bigger) and you replaced it with a ready charged standard item which may have been charged on the garage roof with solar or some other renewable electricity.
The cars would become lighter and range would not be an issue once the infrastructure was sorted.
Vanin said:
With the battery powered cars, I could see more sense if a form of cassette was produced where you pulled up to the garage, pushed a button on the dashboard and a smaller battery cassette came out (just like a CD only bigger) and you replaced it with a ready charged standard item which may have been charged on the garage roof with solar or some other renewable electricity.
The cars would become lighter and range would not be an issue once the infrastructure was sorted.
The problem I see is scalability. Will an EV battery system ever be able to scale up to power a HGV, or a bus?The cars would become lighter and range would not be an issue once the infrastructure was sorted.
Battery EVs are starting to work well for passenger cars and small commercial vehicles, but I wonder whether they can go bigger.
Whatever happens I think Tesla have this licked, and that alterantive fuel technologies have an uphill battle.
The Tesla battery banks are removable - easily - infact there is a video of them doing it on stage with Elon Musk twice in the time it took to fill an Audi A6 tank up. The supercharger stations will start offering exchnage of batteries if the driver doen not want to wait for a recharge.
With that sort of removable tech - if battery technology improves or if fuel cells and the distribution network mature do you want to bet that the Tesla battey packs could be exchanged for fuel cell ones...
The lack of complexity in the tesla drive train is also a key feature - gone is all the compexity and messiness of an ICE - and similarly with fuel cell.
The electric charging network is becoming established, Tesla are deploying superchargers across Europe, the UK and the US on major routes. The expense of deploying a H2 distribution network across the UK cannot be underestimated - I'd much rather see electric production at scale (nuclear) with local assistance (pv/wind/local Hydro) over the existing National Grid- I just can't imagine my local petrol station staff handling liquid H2 or managing the plant producing it locally - getting rid of the fuel tankers from the road wouldn't be a bad thing either...
I drove a Model S and it's an incredible machine - the packaging is brilliant and the performance is well publicised.. it's the first time I've even considered an EV/hybrid - I regularly do circa 300mile commutes from Cumbria to Bracknell every other week - the superchargers at warrington (next year) and maidenhead (now) would make this a real possibility - and a massive saving both in money and CO2...
Of course I just want a Delorean with a Mr Fusion fitted - as long as I stay under 88MPH I'll be fine ;-)
S.
The Tesla battery banks are removable - easily - infact there is a video of them doing it on stage with Elon Musk twice in the time it took to fill an Audi A6 tank up. The supercharger stations will start offering exchnage of batteries if the driver doen not want to wait for a recharge.
With that sort of removable tech - if battery technology improves or if fuel cells and the distribution network mature do you want to bet that the Tesla battey packs could be exchanged for fuel cell ones...
The lack of complexity in the tesla drive train is also a key feature - gone is all the compexity and messiness of an ICE - and similarly with fuel cell.
The electric charging network is becoming established, Tesla are deploying superchargers across Europe, the UK and the US on major routes. The expense of deploying a H2 distribution network across the UK cannot be underestimated - I'd much rather see electric production at scale (nuclear) with local assistance (pv/wind/local Hydro) over the existing National Grid- I just can't imagine my local petrol station staff handling liquid H2 or managing the plant producing it locally - getting rid of the fuel tankers from the road wouldn't be a bad thing either...
I drove a Model S and it's an incredible machine - the packaging is brilliant and the performance is well publicised.. it's the first time I've even considered an EV/hybrid - I regularly do circa 300mile commutes from Cumbria to Bracknell every other week - the superchargers at warrington (next year) and maidenhead (now) would make this a real possibility - and a massive saving both in money and CO2...
Of course I just want a Delorean with a Mr Fusion fitted - as long as I stay under 88MPH I'll be fine ;-)
S.
Toyota seem to have decided a long time ago battery technology is not worth investing in. Even though virtually every car in the Toyota/Lexus range now has a hybrid option. After test driving a Lexus IS300H, and managing to achieve 60mpg+ whilst stuck in Xmas shopping traffic was enough to convince us to swap our diesel Civic for a IS300H. The fact IS300H is still using battery technology that is a generation old (NiMH) to deliver such a convincing hybrid experience shows that if Toyota put their heart in it, they could easily build something to rival Tesla!!
Elon Musk though is quite inspiring, and is clearly a technology guy first and foremost, so understands that big brands/history's mean nothing if products don't evolve. Look at Nokia, who would have thought 10 years ago they would be now no longer exist, or the fact a company like Apple can go from been virtually bankrupt in 1998 to now dominating the consumer electronic market.
Whilst Toyota/Honda are busy telling people how battery technology is old news, Musk has produced by all accounts one of the best cars ever made, and is now building the world largest battery factory with the aim of lower battery costs significantly with-in a few years....All I know is that as soon as Tesla release a car that can do 200miles range for around £35-40k, I'll be PX my BMW 335i for one
Toyota might have a point about fuel cells been the superior technology, but tell that to the backers of BetaBax, HDDVD, or the use of AC to distribute mains electricity versus DC way back in the 19th century.....Nikolai Tesla was the main promoter for AC power
It's also interesting to see the VW group has taken the Tesla threat quite seriously, with Audi promising to release an full EV car that can match the Tesla for performance and price.
Elon Musk though is quite inspiring, and is clearly a technology guy first and foremost, so understands that big brands/history's mean nothing if products don't evolve. Look at Nokia, who would have thought 10 years ago they would be now no longer exist, or the fact a company like Apple can go from been virtually bankrupt in 1998 to now dominating the consumer electronic market.
Whilst Toyota/Honda are busy telling people how battery technology is old news, Musk has produced by all accounts one of the best cars ever made, and is now building the world largest battery factory with the aim of lower battery costs significantly with-in a few years....All I know is that as soon as Tesla release a car that can do 200miles range for around £35-40k, I'll be PX my BMW 335i for one
Toyota might have a point about fuel cells been the superior technology, but tell that to the backers of BetaBax, HDDVD, or the use of AC to distribute mains electricity versus DC way back in the 19th century.....Nikolai Tesla was the main promoter for AC power
It's also interesting to see the VW group has taken the Tesla threat quite seriously, with Audi promising to release an full EV car that can match the Tesla for performance and price.
Edited by gangzoom on Monday 1st December 06:42
Hydrogen just a massively inefficient and complex way of storing power.
Given that Tesla have a car which would met the needs of 90% of the population, with no infrastructure changes, this is the most sensible route for the mass market.
for those that need extra range, then REX is the best solution.
Given that Tesla have a car which would met the needs of 90% of the population, with no infrastructure changes, this is the most sensible route for the mass market.
for those that need extra range, then REX is the best solution.
AmitG said:
98elise said:
for those that need extra range, then REX is the best solution.
Fair, but what about those that need extra scale? Like buses and HGVs.Can battery EVs scale up to those applications? I honestly don't know.
Non Nuclear submarines have run on batteries for decades
98elise said:
Hydrogen just a massively inefficient and complex way of storing power.
This,The (significant quantities of) energy used to create the hydrogen can be MUCH better utilised actually charging a BEV, that's before you start calculating the transport/storage/conversion back to electricity inefficiencies
The information isn't easy to come by (or my google-fu is weak) but a comparison of energy used to move a given vehicle 1 mile for BEV v Hydrogen fuel cell would be very enlightening.
Anyone care to run a few numbers?
ETA:
the best i can find is 11.7Mj/Mcubed of hydrogen (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrolysis_of_water...
11.126 cube metres/kg
5.64 kg capacity in ix35 fuel cell car for claimed 350 miles
so that's 62 cube metres for 350 miles so 11.7 x 62 = 732Mj
or 2.09mj/mile
an i3 is 1.2 mj/mile (apparently the 22kwh battery equates to 79MJ, i've gone for 100 miles/charge)
So not far off half the efficiency of using the electricity to just charge the end vehicle (and there are lots of ifs and buts about hydrogen generation ('100% efficiency' stands out as ripe for inaccuracy)
Edited by Greg_D on Thursday 4th December 16:38
This open letter to CARB ( california air resources board ) sums nicely my thoughts and although there's a wall of numbers shows he has done the maths.
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/05/20/fuel-cell-vehi...
Executive summary fuel cells are better than old petrol cars getting 23mpg, but not EVs.
That said i do see a niche for range extended EVs with say a battery the size of a leaf or i3 and a FC based extender. But only until batteries drop in price and weight in the early mid 2020s when they will become cheaper to own than an ICE let alone FC.
Maybe they should stick to using FC for buses and trucks so fleets can have their own H2 tanks on site like they do with LPG. That would make more sense.
I sold my fuel cell shares in 2004 and haven't seen anything since to make me re invest. I keep looking at Telsa thinking can the price go higher or are they over valued. If they become the #1 player in grid energy storage i think they can go higher.
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/05/20/fuel-cell-vehi...
Executive summary fuel cells are better than old petrol cars getting 23mpg, but not EVs.
That said i do see a niche for range extended EVs with say a battery the size of a leaf or i3 and a FC based extender. But only until batteries drop in price and weight in the early mid 2020s when they will become cheaper to own than an ICE let alone FC.
Maybe they should stick to using FC for buses and trucks so fleets can have their own H2 tanks on site like they do with LPG. That would make more sense.
I sold my fuel cell shares in 2004 and haven't seen anything since to make me re invest. I keep looking at Telsa thinking can the price go higher or are they over valued. If they become the #1 player in grid energy storage i think they can go higher.
Greg_D said:
The (significant quantities of) energy used to create the hydrogen can be MUCH better utilised actually charging a BEV, that's before you start calculating the transport/storage/conversion back to electricity inefficiencies
This was my understanding, I wonder why manufacturers are persisting with it?Edited by Greg_D on Thursday 4th December 16:38
AmitG said:
The problem I see is scalability. Will an EV battery system ever be able to scale up to power a HGV, or a bus?
Battery EVs are starting to work well for passenger cars and small commercial vehicles, but I wonder whether they can go bigger.
Battery EVs are starting to work well for passenger cars and small commercial vehicles, but I wonder whether they can go bigger.
AmitG said:
Fair, but what about those that need extra scale? Like buses and HGVs.
Can battery EVs scale up to those applications? I honestly don't know.
Of course they can. I work for a Bus manufacturer. We do Diesel, Diesel Hybrid, and 'plug-in' battery vehicles. Can battery EVs scale up to those applications? I honestly don't know.
For clarity - I'm talking full-size, 9 to 11mtr long high capacity buses, not minibuses.
EV 'battery' buses are in full production, and are used all over the country, and elsewhere in the world.
The vast majority of city-based bus routes are suitable for battery based vehicles, that's usually over a 2 driver shift, using a full charge overnight.
As per earlier comments - the range of vehicles we sell highlights that the future is not specifically one solution - its different solutions for different uses.
Would it be more efficient to use wind farms to create hydrogen by electrolysis when there is an excess of wind and little demand?
The hydrogen could be used to power a fuel cell generator in times of greater demand with no wind. (Don't they do something like this on Orkney?)
Or do the sums not add up!
The hydrogen could be used to power a fuel cell generator in times of greater demand with no wind. (Don't they do something like this on Orkney?)
Or do the sums not add up!
Vanin said:
Would it be more efficient to use wind farms to create hydrogen by electrolysis when there is an excess of wind and little demand?
The hydrogen could be used to power a fuel cell generator in times of greater demand with no wind. (Don't they do something like this on Orkney?)
Or do the sums not add up!
Storage and distribution is still a pain.The hydrogen could be used to power a fuel cell generator in times of greater demand with no wind. (Don't they do something like this on Orkney?)
Or do the sums not add up!
The closest we are going to get to a hydrogen car is one that uses hydrogen as a range extender on an EV.
Vanin said:
Would it be more efficient to use wind farms to create hydrogen by electrolysis when there is an excess of wind and little demand?
The hydrogen could be used to power a fuel cell generator in times of greater demand with no wind. (Don't they do something like this on Orkney?)
Or do the sums not add up!
The sums don't add up. The hydrogen could be used to power a fuel cell generator in times of greater demand with no wind. (Don't they do something like this on Orkney?)
Or do the sums not add up!
I used to be an avid promoter of fuel cells... on forums ... saying look what is just around the corner. WE Will be saved from taxation etc. That was in 1999-2001! I've since realised if you start with 1kwh of electric, with electrolysis -> H2 -> fuel cell -> electric you end up with 0.25kWh of electricity to power your car. Take the 1kWh stick it in a battery and you'll end up with no less than 0.9kWh. At least 3 times less energy lost. Ooops.
The report i posted a link to earlier was the final nail. It's never going to be cheaper to buy, lower co2 or cheaper to run than batteries. But it will fill up quicker if you count quicker from the time you plug in a nozzle and wait around, not from the moment you deviate from your intended journey to go and get fuel, vs waiting till you get home and spend 30s plugging in for the night.
I think by the time EVs all have 100 mile real world range FC will be dead ducks.
Especially when Telsa bring out the 200 mile range model 3 in 2017 for about £30k. Sounds mad, but when you do the maths people who normally spend £18-20k on a car will be able to justify the Tesla in lower running costs. No fuel. Free supercharging on long trips. Low tax. No oil and wearable parts. Even brake pads last longer due to the regen in the motor/generator. Exciting times.
Took my 9 year old son for a test drive in a Model S an he said "i live the way it doesnt go brrrrrrr all the time".
Which is lucky really. I think by the time he passes his test ICE cars will be a niche for people who drive 200 miles per day regularly. Salesmen etc.
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