BMW likely to phase out ICE within 10 years
Discussion
http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2014/11/bmw-li...
Might be a bit optimisitic, but then looking at the speed Tesla are advancing, this might be a possibilty. I cant quite see it so soon at the bottom end of the market due to battery costs, but anything from the 320d and up battery costs should have come down enough to make them cheaper to run than an ICE, but 116i and mini I cant see. The i3 is sitting in that market though and already shot to 1% of BMW sales, despite being very expensive for a small car.
http://www.bmwgroup.com/bmwgroup_prod/e/0_0_www_bm...
I think we may see final EV drive for all vehicles, but maybe with smaller batteries and optional range extenders at least until charging infrastructure is avaiable in every car park and on street parking and workplace.
I do predict a rapid transformation once the cost of running an EV gets low enough to compete with ICE. At the moment you choose an EV for other reasons than cost effectiveness. Lack of NVH, instant torque, single pedal driving, no visits to petrol stations.
Might be a bit optimisitic, but then looking at the speed Tesla are advancing, this might be a possibilty. I cant quite see it so soon at the bottom end of the market due to battery costs, but anything from the 320d and up battery costs should have come down enough to make them cheaper to run than an ICE, but 116i and mini I cant see. The i3 is sitting in that market though and already shot to 1% of BMW sales, despite being very expensive for a small car.
http://www.bmwgroup.com/bmwgroup_prod/e/0_0_www_bm...
I think we may see final EV drive for all vehicles, but maybe with smaller batteries and optional range extenders at least until charging infrastructure is avaiable in every car park and on street parking and workplace.
I do predict a rapid transformation once the cost of running an EV gets low enough to compete with ICE. At the moment you choose an EV for other reasons than cost effectiveness. Lack of NVH, instant torque, single pedal driving, no visits to petrol stations.
I am 100% behind electric cars, I think they're the future and will own one when I perceive them to be a better option than I.C.E. However I do wonder where all of the electricity is to come from if we are to see mass adoption of electric cars in the next 10 years, considering our energy requirements are already biblical and still increasing even without the help of the electric car.
I'm not going to be one of those "Your not reducing pollution, you're just moving it somewhere else" bores, I just wonder- being as the most cost-effective power generation method, fossil fuels aside, must be neuclear?
I'm not going to be one of those "Your not reducing pollution, you're just moving it somewhere else" bores, I just wonder- being as the most cost-effective power generation method, fossil fuels aside, must be neuclear?
I'm one of those EV haters (I pressed the wrong button to reveal this forum)...
That is until I accidentally drove the 470bhp version of the Tesla a few weeks ago. If BMW are still producing any ICE engines in 5 years time then they will be short lived as a company in my opinion!
The refinement difference between a 730d and a tesla is immense!
That is until I accidentally drove the 470bhp version of the Tesla a few weeks ago. If BMW are still producing any ICE engines in 5 years time then they will be short lived as a company in my opinion!
The refinement difference between a 730d and a tesla is immense!
BritishRacinGrin said:
I am 100% behind electric cars, I think they're the future and will own one when I perceive them to be a better option than I.C.E. However I do wonder where all of the electricity is to come from if we are to see mass adoption of electric cars in the next 10 years, considering our energy requirements are already biblical and still increasing even without the help of the electric car.
I'm not going to be one of those "Your not reducing pollution, you're just moving it somewhere else" bores, I just wonder- being as the most cost-effective power generation method, fossil fuels aside, must be neuclear?
Hydrogen maybe?I'm not going to be one of those "Your not reducing pollution, you're just moving it somewhere else" bores, I just wonder- being as the most cost-effective power generation method, fossil fuels aside, must be neuclear?
I find it interesting that the big Japanese players are ignoring the market for battery EVs, and focussing on hydrogen fuel cells.
Well I heard from the BMW iGuy yesterday they are working on the i5 and i9. A quick search on google confirmed this. The i9 is rumoured to be a V6 hybrid supercar to celebrate BMW's centenary. Think i8 on steroids. Think I can't afford it.
i5 - rumours haven't settled on a shape even yet, just pure speculation, anything from a mini 5 series, (missing the nose ala i3) or an X4 crossover style, or a longer coupe version of the i3. Only thing people seem agreed on is aluminium, carbon and a REX.
Reflecting on the original post a bit more, phasing out ICE in 10 years is too soon. I can see every model in the ranges being build to work as an EV with or without REX, using platform engineering as Telsa have done to enable the Model S and X to share the same "dolly" under pinnings. BMW already used the same approach with the i3, the BEV and REX version. But would the whole market accept a pure EV? So by phase out ICE, the best I can see is giving you the option to have no ICE.
What could change that is cheap enough batteries, with higher energy density.
i5 - rumours haven't settled on a shape even yet, just pure speculation, anything from a mini 5 series, (missing the nose ala i3) or an X4 crossover style, or a longer coupe version of the i3. Only thing people seem agreed on is aluminium, carbon and a REX.
Reflecting on the original post a bit more, phasing out ICE in 10 years is too soon. I can see every model in the ranges being build to work as an EV with or without REX, using platform engineering as Telsa have done to enable the Model S and X to share the same "dolly" under pinnings. BMW already used the same approach with the i3, the BEV and REX version. But would the whole market accept a pure EV? So by phase out ICE, the best I can see is giving you the option to have no ICE.
What could change that is cheap enough batteries, with higher energy density.
We're about to put a deposit down for a Lexus IS300H (to replace wifes Civic), ok its got a tiny 1.8kwh battery compared to the 60/85kwh Tesla but when sales man pulled away in EV mode on the test drive we were sold. For the same money we could have also gone for a ICE C class (hybrid C class is nearly £10K more than the Lexus), but after experincing EV mode in the Lexus, the rattly diesel lump in the C class sudden seems very very old fashioned!!
I'm now 100% sure that in 3-4-5 years time when I'm ready to part with my BMW 335i I'll be replacing it with some kind of EV/hybrid machine. The top contender I think will be the up and coming Tesla 3. With increaseing tax on emissions/diesle I'm amazed it has taken the established companies like BMW so long to start producing EV cars.....The only thing that has stopped me from ordering a Tesla S today is the fact I havent got £60K sitting around doing nothing....Tesla is now starting to build their huge battery factory, and aim to start producing cheaper battery packs by 2017. Now I suspect a £30K Tesla S be very hard to resist even for a oil company excutive.
If the likes of BMW/Audi/Merc don't respond soon, in a few years time I fear they might be facing the same fate as compaines like Nokia/Wang computers/Compaq. An EV car is much more like a massive consumer electronic item than a standard ICE machine, and someone like Elon Musk understands how vision/innovation needs to drive a technology company much better than the likes of BMW/Audi/Merc. Its going to be brave new world, and I for one cannot wait
I'm now 100% sure that in 3-4-5 years time when I'm ready to part with my BMW 335i I'll be replacing it with some kind of EV/hybrid machine. The top contender I think will be the up and coming Tesla 3. With increaseing tax on emissions/diesle I'm amazed it has taken the established companies like BMW so long to start producing EV cars.....The only thing that has stopped me from ordering a Tesla S today is the fact I havent got £60K sitting around doing nothing....Tesla is now starting to build their huge battery factory, and aim to start producing cheaper battery packs by 2017. Now I suspect a £30K Tesla S be very hard to resist even for a oil company excutive.
If the likes of BMW/Audi/Merc don't respond soon, in a few years time I fear they might be facing the same fate as compaines like Nokia/Wang computers/Compaq. An EV car is much more like a massive consumer electronic item than a standard ICE machine, and someone like Elon Musk understands how vision/innovation needs to drive a technology company much better than the likes of BMW/Audi/Merc. Its going to be brave new world, and I for one cannot wait
Edited by gangzoom on Friday 14th November 01:07
BritishRacinGrin said:
I am 100% behind electric cars, I think they're the future and will own one when I perceive them to be a better option than I.C.E. However I do wonder where all of the electricity is to come from if we are to see mass adoption of electric cars in the next 10 years, considering our energy requirements are already biblical and still increasing even without the help of the electric car.
I'm not going to be one of those "Your not reducing pollution, you're just moving it somewhere else" bores, I just wonder- being as the most cost-effective power generation method, fossil fuels aside, must be neuclear?
Plenty of spare capacity in the grid for overnight charging...I'm not going to be one of those "Your not reducing pollution, you're just moving it somewhere else" bores, I just wonder- being as the most cost-effective power generation method, fossil fuels aside, must be neuclear?
Dr Jekyll said:
At what point do we expect the government to put a tax on the use of electric cars equivalent to the fuel duty on dead dinosaur cars? And how will this affect the economics of running an electric car?
When "too many" people have them? With the amount of low co2 cars now they must be starting to feel the pain already.I'd imagine PAYG road pricing would be in by the time EV's are commonplace.
AmitG said:
c2mike said:
AmitG said:
I find it interesting that the big Japanese players are ignoring the market for battery EVs, and focussing on hydrogen fuel cells.
Like Nissan?I drove the Tesla extensively, prepared to hate the thing. I was just blown away. I have driven a few EVs and been left cold, The Tesla was a revelation. Given the very long distances I travel in North America not practical for me, but there are many for whom it would be perfect. Still...I am hanging on to my naturally aspirated Porsche world for a while yet.
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