Discussion
threespires said:
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I'm sure Chinese cars with similarly odd names will follow the same pattern.
Particularly as the wholesale prices of batteries in China is now getting down to circa $55/kwh and BYD can already sell their 'dolphin' (basically like a VW ID3) for less than $20k in China. I think we will see price parity between Chinese made EVs and legacy ICE cars within 2 years, at which point, if companies like BYD decide they want to sell their cars at volume in the UK market, they are going to find a lot of buyers here.I'm sure Chinese cars with similarly odd names will follow the same pattern.
threespires said:
In 1969 I was chatting to my sales manager in the showroom and a Daihatsu drove by.
We both agreed, Japanese cars will never catch on.
Tinny things that were rusty before they left the boat.
9 years later I was very happy selling Sunny, Cherry, Laurel, Violet and Cedric by the bucket load in the shadow of Longbridge.
I'm sure Chinese cars with similarly odd names will follow the same pattern.
It's a pattern that repeats endlessly to the point that it is inevitable that Chinese manufactured cars will carve out a core share of the U.K. market. We both agreed, Japanese cars will never catch on.
Tinny things that were rusty before they left the boat.
9 years later I was very happy selling Sunny, Cherry, Laurel, Violet and Cedric by the bucket load in the shadow of Longbridge.
I'm sure Chinese cars with similarly odd names will follow the same pattern.
The real questions are how much of a share, how long will it take and how much lobbying from other manufacturers will succeed in attempts to hinder competition and keep consumers paying more than they need to.
Every economic cycle when it enters its down turn will open the door to the newer, cheaper car manufacturing nation that during the previous economic cycle set its national sights on the importance of exporting high value manufactured goods.
These manufacturers start by targeting local areas where poverty is sufficient for there to be a demand for a cheaper, bit more rubbish entrant but not so much poverty that consumers can't even afford their product. The sort of place where there is enough employment to create a true demand for private transport but where workers are resorting to motorbikes and reliant Robin type solutions etc.
It wasn't just the Japanese that got their big break in the 70s but it's how the Russian brands got traction in the 80s and then the Koreans in the 90s.
From 1997 we had a strange hiatus when the government followed Greenspanonomics and removed almost all consumer credit and lending regulation that had been put in place to prevent excessive asset inflation. The purpose being to fuel and drive a massive asset inflation and the consumer boom that follows. For 20 years we kept allowing people to borrow more and more of their future earnings, basically people just gave themselves endless pay rises whenever they wanted using their future earnings. The rampant property inflation released huge chunks of capital at singular moments and all in the West had this enormous and for most completely artificial wealth and consumption expansion that meant no one needed the sub brands. Everyone could rent a premium brand and the pre existing sub brands had to increase their quality and status in order to keep attracting customers because for just a few quid more anyone could get a Merc rather than a Hyundai.
Since 2006, when SAIC bought MG they've been operating an infilling model like the early days of Japanese, Russian and Korean imports. Just selling a cheaply built product into a the narrow consumer band where the consumer has the need for a car but not the wealth or desire to spend the amounts required to obtain the use of an incumbent brand. And so you have tended to see the ICE products from 2006 onwards in the hands of pensioners and other fixed and low income households as well as the young. We've not had the economic shock among higher income earners (ie significant unemployment) to trigger the shift from these cheap brands being sold in small numbers to the lowest income households to completely replacing incumbent sales.
But China, unlike Japan, Russia, Korea isn't targeting dominance by ICE but by EV. They obviously already dominate global EV manufacturing and can undercut any incumbent manufacturer but we haven't had any kind of huge economic blow to bigger consumers that would drive them out of premium brands. We've seen plenty of over spenders having to move out of the consumer space they were renting but that's just peripheral activity. Employment is high and wages increasing.
I think that one thing that's very different this time around is the point that you have picked up on. When the Japanese were working their way into the U.K. the mocking of their products was almost universal across age groups. Same with the Russian stuff and the Korean. I don't think that holds true in the same way today. Older GenX upwards may still have a tendency to mock entire cultures and nations for their products but younger consumers have grown up in the current global environment and people don't really care where stuff is made or whether it's associated to a particular nation. Their tolerance instead is inelastic. There's no middle ground, everything is great and fine until that breaking point when suddenly something must be cancelled in some kind of intolerant, terrifying cultural pogrom. Something you can see others becoming more and more invested in seeking to trigger as the only way to lock Chinese EVs out of Western markets.
It used to be hard to imagine entirely new brands to be able to gain traction within more premium markets, like a new Chanel appearing overnight when it took decades of consumer interaction to create the awareness and power but today a premium brand can be invented overnight. You don't even need to buy an old brand as a cover ID, you can simply create from nothing and so long as you rent the correct performing monkeys to spew lies and deception to the right audience the brand can be dominant in an incredibly short period of time.
In short, I'm not sure we will be sniggering at cheap Chinese cars and pooh poohing them like we have done others before. Firstly many are built just as well as incumbent cars but look better and secondly far fewer people care about the origin of their products in the same way, especially as there is no U.K. car manufacturing at these levels. All that remains is the assembly of overseas vehicles using labour heavily subsidised by the U.K. taxpayer.
The only aspect that I think is a shame is that the Seal isn't hitting the U.K. for under £30k. Given how nice it looks it would cause an absolutely enormous shock wave that I personally feel that as a nation that one way or another imports all our cars and is sending billions and billions of £ overseas every year there is only upside for the U.K. in setting off bombs to reshape that import market and be sending less money.
DMZ said:
It's obviously very helpful for the Chinese that most EVs are Nissan Cherry equivalents, but with some stupid hp number. And that people write long posts about things other than the cars themselves.
It just goes over some heads. The post was entirely about BYD and the Seal. Would you rather we talked about fish some more? 
Maybe we could talk about colour options, the wheel designs or the safest place to put one's handbag? DonkeyApple said:
In short, I'm not sure we will be sniggering at cheap Chinese cars and pooh poohing them like we have done others before. Firstly many are built just as well as incumbent cars but look better and secondly far fewer people care about the origin of their products in the same way, especially as there is no U.K. car manufacturing at these levels. All that remains is the assembly of overseas vehicles using labour heavily subsidised by the U.K. taxpayer.
I test drove a seal last week with Mrs. W. Now Mrs. W has no real car knowledge (I work in the Industry) and is a self admitted car snob (she drive a JLR product because they are "quality".....). I didn't tell her the make / origin of the seal, just it's another EV.
She was very impressed and assumed it was a German Brand, according to her much better than my current Tesla. (and on a par with my previous BMW 5)
I would guess Mrs. W. is much like the majority of the population, not really into cars, have some preconceptions about quality and certain brands, but ultimately if they look "stylish" and the interior has "apparent" quality the brand is partially irrelevant.
WestyCarl said:
I test drove a seal last week with Mrs. W.
Now Mrs. W has no real car knowledge (I work in the Industry) and is a self admitted car snob (she drive a JLR product because they are "quality".....). I didn't tell her the make / origin of the seal, just it's another EV.
She was very impressed and assumed it was a German Brand, according to her much better than my current Tesla. (and on a par with my previous BMW 5)
I would guess Mrs. W. is much like the majority of the population, not really into cars, have some preconceptions about quality and certain brands, but ultimately if they look "stylish" and the interior has "apparent" quality the brand is partially irrelevant.
I think this is one of the big differences. While in the past manufacturers seeking to take market share towards the lower end of the market have started with products that looked and felt as cheap as they were, the Chinese while making vast numbers of such products are also very, very capable of making products that look and feel as expensive as dearer products from other nations, whether they have a Tesla, Volvo or MG, even Lotus sticker on them they can create cars with good interiors and functionality. The Seal looks genuinely good but so do BYD's cheaper export models like the Dolphin. Now Mrs. W has no real car knowledge (I work in the Industry) and is a self admitted car snob (she drive a JLR product because they are "quality".....). I didn't tell her the make / origin of the seal, just it's another EV.
She was very impressed and assumed it was a German Brand, according to her much better than my current Tesla. (and on a par with my previous BMW 5)
I would guess Mrs. W. is much like the majority of the population, not really into cars, have some preconceptions about quality and certain brands, but ultimately if they look "stylish" and the interior has "apparent" quality the brand is partially irrelevant.
And the ZEV Mandate as it starts kicking in is going to see manufacturers having to fight hard to attract enough middle of the road, normal U.K. consumers to buy an EV and you can foresee companies such as BYD who may have no ICE business in the U.K. and the ability to undercut everyone else getting real traction over the next 5 years or so.
I wonder if the real question is what will attract someone to a Seal over a Model 3. Both cheap Chinese built EVs selling in the same space. If they're the same price does it not boil down to brand values at that point?
DonkeyApple said:
I wonder if the real question is what will attract someone to a Seal over a Model 3. Both cheap Chinese built EVs selling in the same space. If they're the same price does it not boil down to brand values at that point?
The big differance I could see is cabin "trinkets". The BYD has 2 front screens (1 rotating......), plus HUD, plus a multitude of stalk buttons and shiny center console buttons.They drove very similar (BYD was slightly softer with less damping), actual spec / toys are quite similar, range and performance very similar, price is pretty much identical. It is quite clearly an un-ashamed direct challenge to the Model 3.
WestyCarl said:
It is quite clearly an un-ashamed direct challenge to the Model 3.
I wonder if the buttons and price are enough to dislodge the advantage of the Tesla charging network?I happened to watch a YouTube video yesterday of a standard range Model 3 against an MG.
https://youtu.be/zi5V2XXbrpA?si=qOiov6U4y7Zvq_DM
I thought the overall experience was interesting - in short, a lot less hassle, quite a bit cheaper (and quicker) for a Tesla.
NDA said:
WestyCarl said:
It is quite clearly an un-ashamed direct challenge to the Model 3.
I wonder if the buttons and price are enough to dislodge the advantage of the Tesla charging network?
garmcqui said:
Just placed an order for the 390kW version through our work salary sacrifice. 10k mileage per year is costing around £370/mth inc insurance, servicing and tyres.
Hope they can insure ithttps://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-insurance/362519...
86 said:
garmcqui said:
Just placed an order for the 390kW version through our work salary sacrifice. 10k mileage per year is costing around £370/mth inc insurance, servicing and tyres.
Hope they can insure ithttps://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-insurance/362519...
Auto Express said:
But, says Townsend, companies do have insufficient knowledge about how the UK repair and insurance market works, because it’s not something they’ve previously needed to know.
Which begs the question, what is it about the UK repair and insurance market that is so different to the rest of the world, and if it is so different to the rest of the world, then maybe we should be questioning why, and is there a better way of doing it.croyde said:
Followed a very enthusiastically driven Seal along fast country roads.
Him in silence and me with my noisy Abarth
Really going for it.
We came to a traffic light and when it turned green, he was gone before I'd even had let out my clutch.
Like a bloody rocket...
I think they badge the dual motor 3.8 as that's in 0-60 time Him in silence and me with my noisy Abarth
Really going for it.
We came to a traffic light and when it turned green, he was gone before I'd even had let out my clutch.
Like a bloody rocket...
WestyCarl said:
croyde said:
Followed a very enthusiastically driven Seal along fast country roads.
Him in silence and me with my noisy Abarth
Really going for it.
We came to a traffic light and when it turned green, he was gone before I'd even had let out my clutch.
Like a bloody rocket...
I think they badge the dual motor 3.8 as that's in 0-60 time Him in silence and me with my noisy Abarth
Really going for it.
We came to a traffic light and when it turned green, he was gone before I'd even had let out my clutch.
Like a bloody rocket...
I’ve just ordered the 390kw as the next company car after a swift test drive. Didn’t give it the full beans as I had some yappy bloke sat in the back raving about Skodas.
Nice place to be for mile munching with plenty of toys. Couple that with rocket mode for dusting old ladies off at the traffic lights and I feel moderately excited about taking delivery of it.
Now hopefully the lead time isn’t ridiculous!
Nice place to be for mile munching with plenty of toys. Couple that with rocket mode for dusting old ladies off at the traffic lights and I feel moderately excited about taking delivery of it.
Now hopefully the lead time isn’t ridiculous!
Adam y0 said:
I’ve just ordered the 390kw as the next company car after a swift test drive. Didn’t give it the full beans as I had some yappy bloke sat in the back raving about Skodas.
Nice place to be for mile munching with plenty of toys. Couple that with rocket mode for dusting old ladies off at the traffic lights and I feel moderately excited about taking delivery of it.
Now hopefully the lead time isn’t ridiculous!
Big problem with EVs. Too quiet to drown out the yappy punters in the back. Surely a full throttle then brake test would have done the trick?Nice place to be for mile munching with plenty of toys. Couple that with rocket mode for dusting old ladies off at the traffic lights and I feel moderately excited about taking delivery of it.
Now hopefully the lead time isn’t ridiculous!
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