Speciale Levels.
Discussion
I don't think this is the best place to ask for a representative tone of the market.
I've been a lurker for too long and it's pretty clear that most owners seem to think their baby is the next F1 with respect to investment. (I'm exaggerating but you get my point...).
General market is in a bubble, QE, low interest rates blah blah blah. Picking tops is a sure way to go broke, but given the USA has started to raise interest rates maybe we are at the beginning of the end of this cycle?
I would be letting some of my garage go gently at this juncture, but nobody knows.
I've been a lurker for too long and it's pretty clear that most owners seem to think their baby is the next F1 with respect to investment. (I'm exaggerating but you get my point...).
General market is in a bubble, QE, low interest rates blah blah blah. Picking tops is a sure way to go broke, but given the USA has started to raise interest rates maybe we are at the beginning of the end of this cycle?
I would be letting some of my garage go gently at this juncture, but nobody knows.
br d said:
I appreciate your answer but I'm not really trying to disect the whole over-inflated world Supercar prices conundrum, that way lies madness! Just if Speciale owners were getting a general feel for where the model is heading.
I don't have one and don't intend to buy one but work with a bloke who does own one and he keeps an eye on prices. Seems to me like prices have been on a slow decline and there are plenty of cars about. There are cars from Ferrari dealers close to or at the £300k mark...three months ago I think official dealers were close to £325k. Obviously hugely spec and mileage dependent. Certainly seems like there are plenty of cars around, more than people expected is the impression I get. I don't have a strong view but if I was wanting to buy one I'd be waiting to see what happens in the spring....I suspect plenty of dealers are hoping they can sell cars they have owned over the winter into that normal market strength. Not sure that happens to be honest.
Thanks Cheib.
The feeling of slow decline was the sort of vibe I was picking up. I'm not one to worry over depreciation, I've always accepted loses as part of the process but I'm going to order a 720 Spider when they are announced and I was looking for a car to hold onto a bit of money in the interim.
My 650S will continue to slide and as I may be looking at 18 months thumb-twiddling a Speciale seems like a nice place to be in the meantime.
More research required.
The feeling of slow decline was the sort of vibe I was picking up. I'm not one to worry over depreciation, I've always accepted loses as part of the process but I'm going to order a 720 Spider when they are announced and I was looking for a car to hold onto a bit of money in the interim.
My 650S will continue to slide and as I may be looking at 18 months thumb-twiddling a Speciale seems like a nice place to be in the meantime.
More research required.
br d said:
What's the thinking on Speciale prices?
I know they went a bit mad last year but I haven't been watching the market, do they seem to have settled now or are they dropping?
Here's a graph of Speciale prices. Specifically average offered price of RHD Speciales on Pistonheads plus number advertised. Apertas are excluded. Price has been trending gently downward for some time now - but volumes offered are drying up a bit.I know they went a bit mad last year but I haven't been watching the market, do they seem to have settled now or are they dropping?
Very informative, thanks Graham.
If that trend continues then sitting tight on my 650S would probably work out about the same relatively speaking without the hassle of a car change.
Hmm.
All this goes heavily against the grain for me, I've always just been a "Buy it and damn the consequences" sort of bloke but here I am anylising markets, must be getting timid!
If that trend continues then sitting tight on my 650S would probably work out about the same relatively speaking without the hassle of a car change.
Hmm.
All this goes heavily against the grain for me, I've always just been a "Buy it and damn the consequences" sort of bloke but here I am anylising markets, must be getting timid!
br d said:
Very informative, thanks Graham.
If that trend continues then sitting tight on my 650S would probably work out about the same relatively speaking without the hassle of a car change.
Hmm.
All this goes heavily against the grain for me, I've always just been a "Buy it and damn the consequences" sort of bloke but here I am anylising markets, must be getting timid!
I would like to add a Speciale as well so have been tracking prices and gone and seen a few cars and made a couple of cheeky offers but nought was doing.If that trend continues then sitting tight on my 650S would probably work out about the same relatively speaking without the hassle of a car change.
Hmm.
All this goes heavily against the grain for me, I've always just been a "Buy it and damn the consequences" sort of bloke but here I am anylising markets, must be getting timid!
Lots of the same cars on sale as a year ago but I agree prices have softened but no where near enough. Its exactly the same for 675LT and both are overpriced IMHO.
Like you I'm fairly decisive and like to make a positive decision but sometimes saying No and not buying is the right decision.
I think both Speciale and 675LT prices will fall more than your 650S by the time a 720S spider is out which is at least 2 years away but if you fancy a change just for a change go in hard.
Of the 2 at current prices and as fantastic as I rate the 675LT I think the speciale will be the safer bet even if the depreciation from a high point will be circa double that from your current 650S value which wont drop massively from now on in( lots of reasons but not to be discussed on a Ferrari forum god forbid)
I bought my Speciale right at the top of the market. The dealer definitely saw me coming. I might look at it as a waste of money or an unwise financial decision but I've been driving it for the past year rather than lusting over classified ads and I think long term it's going to at least hold its value.
If a Speciale is what you want and you have the liquidity my suggestion would be to go for it. You could be hit by a bus tomorrow.
If a Speciale is what you want and you have the liquidity my suggestion would be to go for it. You could be hit by a bus tomorrow.
adamjsmith said:
Just to add, in Jan I was offered by the same dealer a very low mileage Aperta for £650k which I swiftly declined. That would be the definition of madness.
perhaps but the 599 arpetas now go for 1-1.5m usdhttp://rmsothebys.com/az16/arizona/lots/2011-ferra...
To me it feels like the market has found an equilibrium level. I am biased of course but I still genuinely think it's the last of an era. And what a car to mark the end of n/a V8. Say what you will but faster, better is not always the answer and most will tell you they would have a speciale over a 488 any day (or rather any early Sunday).
There will be the next new thing out but it just won't be the same. And owners know this and are happy to keep the cars also because there's nothing to give you back the same emotion. I come from a GT3 which I loved to bits, but the way the Speciale literally dances in your hands is magic. I can't begin to describe it.
So is it rational? No. Should prices be lower? Possibly. Will they suddenly make more cars like it though? No.
For me only alternative is 675LT but crazy pricing and there will make more like it so definitely not irreplaceable. New GT3 yes sure but not sure I can get one and even if I do it will never dance around nor have the torque across the rev range the Speciale has.
So to sum up. I think pricing has levelled and those buying are keeping the cars. On that basis you can buy LHD as the market post Brexit will be much bigger..
There will be the next new thing out but it just won't be the same. And owners know this and are happy to keep the cars also because there's nothing to give you back the same emotion. I come from a GT3 which I loved to bits, but the way the Speciale literally dances in your hands is magic. I can't begin to describe it.
So is it rational? No. Should prices be lower? Possibly. Will they suddenly make more cars like it though? No.
For me only alternative is 675LT but crazy pricing and there will make more like it so definitely not irreplaceable. New GT3 yes sure but not sure I can get one and even if I do it will never dance around nor have the torque across the rev range the Speciale has.
So to sum up. I think pricing has levelled and those buying are keeping the cars. On that basis you can buy LHD as the market post Brexit will be much bigger..
adamjsmith said:
Just to add, in Jan I was offered by the same dealer a very low mileage Aperta for £650k which I swiftly declined. That would be the definition of madness.
Arent Aperta's limited unlike Speciale and therefore far rarer.As much as the price seems insane I could possibly see more of an argument for an Aperta at £650k than a Speciale at £350k just based on production numbers
Interesting thread this as also keen to understand Speciale prices. My (first world) dilemma is as follows. Have my name down for the new GT3 and by all accounts am in with a half decent chance (dealers words) of getting one.
Should that not be the case I was thinking of going for a 991 gen 1 car as I still think they are fabulous things and could even soften slightly when the new car comes out.
Then... beer in hand cruising the classifieds I had a moment and thought to pass the GT3 and use the funds to upgrade my Scud to a Speciale.
LOVE the Speciale.
But. Obviously want to avoid a sudden price corrections. Personally I can't see anything negative outside of a market wide refactoring happening soon.
Should that not be the case I was thinking of going for a 991 gen 1 car as I still think they are fabulous things and could even soften slightly when the new car comes out.
Then... beer in hand cruising the classifieds I had a moment and thought to pass the GT3 and use the funds to upgrade my Scud to a Speciale.
LOVE the Speciale.
But. Obviously want to avoid a sudden price corrections. Personally I can't see anything negative outside of a market wide refactoring happening soon.
Edited by Slickhillsy on Friday 10th February 21:42
RamboLambo said:
adamjsmith said:
Just to add, in Jan I was offered by the same dealer a very low mileage Aperta for £650k which I swiftly declined. That would be the definition of madness.
Arent Aperta's limited unlike Speciale and therefore far rarer.As much as the price seems insane I could possibly see more of an argument for an Aperta at £650k than a Speciale at £350k just based on production numbers
WCZ said:
adamjsmith said:
Just to add, in Jan I was offered by the same dealer a very low mileage Aperta for £650k which I swiftly declined. That would be the definition of madness.
perhaps but the 599 arpetas now go for 1-1.5m usdhttp://rmsothebys.com/az16/arizona/lots/2011-ferra...
Slickhillsy said:
Interesting thread this as also keen to understand Speciale prices. My (first world) dilemma is as follows. Have my name down for the new GT3 and by all accounts am in with a half decent chance (dealers words) of getting one.
Should that not be the case I was thinking of going for a 991 gen 1 car as I still think they are fabulous things and could even soften slightly when the new car comes out.
Then... beer in hand cruising the classifieds I had a moment and thought to pass the GT3 and use the funds to upgrade my Scud to a Speciale.
LOVE the Speciale.
But. Obviously want to avoid a sudden price corrections. Personally I can't see anything negative outside of a market wide refactoring happening soon.
I do not have any data but would not be surprised if they built a lot more Speciales than Scuds .... 2009-2011 wasn't a great market for new car sales. So I think one can make a good case for the Scud (last automated manual tranny, a lot less systems interference, "raw", does it still say Pininfarina on the Speciale - if not this might also be a value driver - last PF designed VS 8-cylinder) eventually being similarly priced to the Speciale and the CS leading them all by a fair margin value-wise due to rareness and being the first meaningful v8 special version. At what value level this will be I have no clue .... could well be half of today's prices or double - who knows Should that not be the case I was thinking of going for a 991 gen 1 car as I still think they are fabulous things and could even soften slightly when the new car comes out.
Then... beer in hand cruising the classifieds I had a moment and thought to pass the GT3 and use the funds to upgrade my Scud to a Speciale.
LOVE the Speciale.
But. Obviously want to avoid a sudden price corrections. Personally I can't see anything negative outside of a market wide refactoring happening soon.
Edited by Slickhillsy on Friday 10th February 21:42
If I were you I would add a 997 RS - as I believe you considered a while ago (RS, manual, Mezger, analogue, much rarer than 991 RS .... what's not to like). Would not be that keen on a 991.1 or 991.2 GT3 personally
Edit: after re-Reading the above.... maybe I should buy one once I have money again mmmhhhh
I came close to buying one a few weeks ago. I went away and really thought about it and concluded it would be a step down from my 650s spider for all kinds of reasons and I'd be paying over the odds for the 'privilege'. At that price point I'm interested to see what the next F12 looks like..
Slarti650 said:
I came close to buying one a few weeks ago. I went away and really thought about it and concluded it would be a step down from my 650s spider for all kinds of reasons and I'd be paying over the odds for the 'privilege'. At that price point I'm interested to see what the next F12 looks like..
6.5L 800hp, 4-wheel steering, faster shifts, 4 rear lights, more aggressive front that F12, updated interior but still without the big Lasso screen in the middle. Can't remember the rest. Sold out in the U.K. - all according to other peoples' posts after the presentation, no first hand info MDL111 said:
Slarti650 said:
I came close to buying one a few weeks ago. I went away and really thought about it and concluded it would be a step down from my 650s spider for all kinds of reasons and I'd be paying over the odds for the 'privilege'. At that price point I'm interested to see what the next F12 looks like..
6.5L 800hp, 4-wheel steering, faster shifts, 4 rear lights, more aggressive front that F12, updated interior but still without the big Lasso screen in the middle. Can't remember the rest. Sold out in the U.K. - all according to other peoples' posts after the presentation, no first hand info Gassing Station | Ferrari V8 | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff