Current market
Discussion
CK11 said:
Must be a mile of on gts prices for sure. A specialist offering £66k when wbac and motorway were offering i think £52-53k
Ask again in 8 weeks. You won't have to wait 12 months to find out.
You might be right, however, you're saying you would be gutted if you bought an 8 year old 991 GTS for £70k today and it lost £10k over the next 12 months.
Look, no one is saying don't buy one and enjoy it, life is short, but I think you need to be realistic.
If Covid hadn't happened, if 0.5% interest rates had not happened, and if UK PLC had not been throwing free money at every one, while at the same time people couldn't go and buy a new car due to supply chain issues, then that £90k GTS in from 2015 would now be sub £50k.
The reality is the correction has started, and no one really knows what will happen over the next 12 months?
Maybe no one will want to sell as they don't want to accept the new prices, maybe Porsche won't start to offer cheaper finance going forward, so maybe the prices of 10 year old 911's will stay ridiculously high because new is even more expensive than ever and supply for used is just not there?
But you're saying you will be gutted if you lost £10k over the next year, and I think you have got to be a real optimist to think that won't happen.
Personally I would just hold a bit, or buy a nice Carrera that even if it lost 25% over the next 2 years it is only £10k. I think you will enjoy it more not worrying about depreciation.
Edited by Ed.Neumann on Monday 2nd October 14:41
GT4RS said:
Ed.Neumann said:
CK11 said:
That particular car i dont know exactly, but on another couple of NON 4 2015 991.1 gts, i done my 'homework' with a few of the more popular porsche specialists and they were way, and i mean way over what wbac and motorway were offering. They did admit the market is tough at the mid to high range of pricing mainly due to the high interest rates.
WBAC are normally around 4-8 weeks ahead of the curve when it comes to pricing, they are basing their prices on actual prices achieved at BCA on the previous days, and purchase prices are updated accordingly. Forget trying to guess where prices will be in 12 months, you can see where they are going to be in 8 weeks by simply looking at WBAC pricing.
It was the same during the lockdown when prices went the other way. Dealers simply not believing customers about the valuation WBAC was offering. In fact at the start just as prices started to climb my mate, who trades from home, was taking in part exchanges from his contact at the local SEAT and VW dealerships unseen and taking them to WBAC and making a couple of grand without doing anything at all. And these were £5-10k cars.
WBAC could see what was happening first and priced accordingly, it took dealers a few weeks of seeing auction prices rocket to catch up. No different on the way down. It will take a few weeks of no sales for reality to set in.
Other thing to consider, most finance houses are back to only lending on PCP type deals if the car is no more than 8 years old at the end of the term.
That went out the window recently, and that makes a huge difference.
Buy a 2015 car today and want to finance it, and you now have to fund it outright over 48 months.
That changes everything.
I know you're a cash buyer, but the majority are not.
2022.
2014 GTS £60,000
£10k down
Balloon £30k
48 x £585 (5% apr)
2023
2015 GTS £60,000
£10,000 down
48 x £1244 (9% apr)
Sure you own the car after 4 years, but many can't afford another £7500 pa on car finance, as well as the extra £8000 a year on their mortgage and the extra £5000 pa on the food shop, and the extra £2000 a year on their energy bills.
Many will see an 8 year old 911 GTS as maybe a £750 a month car with £10k up front. That is where prices will naturally end up.
franki68 said:
Wbac will be pretty close to trade offers that you would get ,
They are useless on proper rare stuff but 911s are common and I found their valuations always very close to trade offers I got on various 911s
Must be a mile of on gts prices for sure. A specialist offering £66k when wbac and motorway were offering i think £52-53kThey are useless on proper rare stuff but 911s are common and I found their valuations always very close to trade offers I got on various 911s
WBAC on 991.2 Targa GTS is about £24000 below retail main dealers price. That is about where i think the trade bids would be now. So a Dec/2021 992 Targa gts with the right spec trade bids currently are £105000.
Main dealers say they need to clear £15000 now so they need some leeway for negotiations and also to potentially prepare for a worsening market where further drops are needed. The one i am watching is up at £128990.
Might see those types of vehicles at £115000 by December/Jan
Main dealers say they need to clear £15000 now so they need some leeway for negotiations and also to potentially prepare for a worsening market where further drops are needed. The one i am watching is up at £128990.
Might see those types of vehicles at £115000 by December/Jan
Edited by Chipper on Monday 2nd October 16:27
braddo said:
Ed.Neumann said:
WBAC are normally around 4-8 weeks ahead of the curve when it comes to pricing, they are basing their prices on actual prices achieved at BCA on the previous days, and purchase prices are updated accordingly.
Forget trying to guess where prices will be in 12 months, you can see where they are going to be in 8 weeks by simply looking at WBAC pricing.
I'd say that model doesn't work very well when the sales venue (in this case BCA auctions) is a low proportion of total sales of what is already a low volume car. WBAC don't want 911s, which is why they offer such a low price (aka adding a huge risk premium). Plus they have no way of valuing the options on high-spec cars. It's not market price.Forget trying to guess where prices will be in 12 months, you can see where they are going to be in 8 weeks by simply looking at WBAC pricing.
I wonder how many 991s are going through BCA each month. Not enough to get their pricing right.
Edited by ClubsportStr on Monday 2nd October 20:47
julian987R said:
...but WBAC can't deduce the spec of the car from a numberplate.
When ever I’ve tried to Px a porsche an opc has never offered more due to certain specs, the only thing ls they were interested in wereCondition
Mileage
Does it have full porsche history
What are the tyres like
Is it due a service
Does the front end need painting due to stone chips
Oh can they make more than 15k taking it in Px, they couldn’t have cared less about the spec when making a trade bid.
GT4RS said:
julian987R said:
...but WBAC can't deduce the spec of the car from a numberplate.
When ever I’ve tried to Px a porsche an opc has never offered more due to certain specs, the only thing ls they were interested in wereCondition
Mileage
Does it have full porsche history
What are the tyres like
Is it due a service
Does the front end need painting due to stone chips
Oh can they make more than 15k taking it in Px, they couldn’t have cared less about the spec when making a trade bid.
Spevs said:
A month after I sold my car WBAC bid was 14k less than I received !
Wow...........
We buy any car are currently offering £99500 for a 21 plate GTS 992 coupe with 6000 miles yet Porsche now have several 21 GTS’s on the Porsche website starting from £112000.Wow...........
I’ve just seen a lovely 991.1 Gts coupe at a dealer for £76000. Now this is a vehicle that long term I think will be a car to keep but I put the reg and mileage in WBAC and it came back £53000. I feel this is probably about right now. Dealers are quite open they want to make a MINIMUM of £15000 on a vehicle. That Gts has been up for quite sometime, so they would have probably paid £60000 to £62000 originally.
This is a car crash now. You just have to look at the Porsche website on stock. You have basically brand new 23 plate Turbo S at £165000 yet loads and loads of 21 plate Turbo S still up for £180000+. The 10% price increase by Porsche is a farce as basically everyone seems to wipe the increase straight off the price as soon as you drive out of the forecourt.
No wonder people are dropping out of orders left right and centre. You literally have dealers with identical vehicles but £10000 difference in price because Porsche just decided to up the damn price. The dealers are struggling to shift them at the old prices let alone the new 24 prices which are clearly stacking up each day!
Porsche have got greedy and it shows. Though the financial situation doesn’t help. Porsche themselves have caused this situation to be a lot worse than it needed to be. They didn’t need to have that price increase as they already had class leading profits. They could have easily absorbed the last finance rate rise to 11.4%.
There are still four 992 GTS vehicles on the Porsche website at over £160000 ( one at £170000 ) and 15 over £150000.
Let’s do the sums. If I buy a £150000 GTS on finance first year depreciation will be on that vehicle of an absolute minimum £35000. Most likely though £40000 to £45000. Add finance interest of £13000 to £15000 . Add insurance and running costs . £2000 . Let’s be generous and take lowest figures and we have just under £50000 to run a kind of run of the mill 911. And that is the being nice figure not the nasty market goes down figure.
Chipper said:
Spevs said:
A month after I sold my car WBAC bid was 14k less than I received !
Wow...........
We buy any car are currently offering £99500 for a 21 plate GTS 992 coupe with 6000 miles yet Porsche now have several 21 GTS’s on the Porsche website starting from £112000.Wow...........
I’ve just seen a lovely 991.1 Gts coupe at a dealer for £76000. Now this is a vehicle that long term I think will be a car to keep but I put the reg and mileage in WBAC and it came back £53000. I feel this is probably about right now. Dealers are quite open they want to make a MINIMUM of £15000 on a vehicle. That Gts has been up for quite sometime, so they would have probably paid £60000 to £62000 originally.
This is a car crash now. You just have to look at the Porsche website on stock. You have basically brand new 23 plate Turbo S at £165000 yet loads and loads of 21 plate Turbo S still up for £180000+. The 10% price increase by Porsche is a farce as basically everyone seems to wipe the increase straight off the price as soon as you drive out of the forecourt.
No wonder people are dropping out of orders left right and centre. You literally have dealers with identical vehicles but £10000 difference in price because Porsche just decided to up the damn price. The dealers are struggling to shift them at the old prices let alone the new 24 prices which are clearly stacking up each day!
Porsche have got greedy and it shows. Though the financial situation doesn’t help. Porsche themselves have caused this situation to be a lot worse than it needed to be. They didn’t need to have that price increase as they already had class leading profits. They could have easily absorbed the last finance rate rise to 11.4%.
There are still four 992 GTS vehicles on the Porsche website at over £160000 ( one at £170000 ) and 15 over £150000.
Let’s do the sums. If I buy a £150000 GTS on finance first year depreciation will be on that vehicle of an absolute minimum £35000. Most likely though £40000 to £45000. Add finance interest of £13000 to £15000 . Add insurance and running costs . £2000 . Let’s be generous and take lowest figures and we have just under £50000 to run a kind of run of the mill 911. And that is the being nice figure not the nasty market goes down figure.
OP here. Personally until dealer and private sellers prices are more in line with wbac (plus their premium) I won’t be buying . I just can’t bring myself to buy when the prices are still the same as they were 3-4 years ago but the cars are 3-4 years older plus 20-40k miles more! It needs to happen anyway as it was out of control across the whole car market. It’s good news as far as I’m concerned as it makes more models available. I’m a cash buyer and already have a couple of fun cars so don’t feel like I’m missing anything currently so I will definitely be waiting it out to things to correct themselves (hopefully).
CK11 said:
Must be a mile of on gts prices for sure. A specialist offering £66k when wbac and motorway were offering i think £52-53k
There are always odd variables ,I traded my gt3 in ,all offers from opc were around the wbac valuation ,I got 8k more for it from some agent so the moral is always shop around but in general the wbac prices are around what dealers offer .franki68 said:
CK11 said:
Must be a mile of on gts prices for sure. A specialist offering £66k when wbac and motorway were offering i think £52-53k
There are always odd variables ,I traded my gt3 in ,all offers from opc were around the wbac valuation ,I got 8k more for it from some agent so the moral is always shop around but in general the wbac prices are around what dealers offer .Case in point. I paid 63.5K for this exact car in Nov 2019 when it had 17K miles on it.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310022...
Still way over IMO.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310022...
Still way over IMO.
bosshog said:
Case in point. I paid 63.5K for this exact car in Nov 2019 when it had 17K miles on it.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310022...
Still way over IMO.
I think the problem is, anyone who has only been following the Porsche market for a couple of years has a completely skewed take on it. https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310022...
Still way over IMO.
The reality is, a 3-4 year old 911 (No GT product) has always been worth approximately 60% of list at trade in.
2020 that changed, but now we will see it go back to normal, might take a while as those sitting on stock are trying to hold out to sell the cars they have already paid for without losing money, but it will happen and is happening.
No issue buying a car now, life is for living, just be realistic that not only are depreciation levels back to normal, you 'might' need to factor in a covid correction too.
Ed.Neumann said:
bosshog said:
Case in point. I paid 63.5K for this exact car in Nov 2019 when it had 17K miles on it.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310022...
Still way over IMO.
I think the problem is, anyone who has only been following the Porsche market for a couple of years has a completely skewed take on it. https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310022...
Still way over IMO.
The reality is, a 3-4 year old 911 (No GT product) has always been worth approximately 60% of list at trade in.
2020 that changed, but now we will see it go back to normal, might take a while as those sitting on stock are trying to hold out to sell the cars they have already paid for without losing money, but it will happen and is happening.
No issue buying a car now, life is for living, just be realistic that not only are depreciation levels back to normal, you 'might' need to factor in a covid correction too.
bosshog said:
Case in point. I paid 63.5K for this exact car in Nov 2019 when it had 17K miles on it.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310022...
Still way over IMO.
And this the crux of why buyers are waiting.https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310022...
Still way over IMO.
People can say live for today, you will be waiting for a long time etc.
However, buyers can see supply has returned to normal (OPCs sitting on large stock) and prices are high compared to 2019 (this is a direct comparison so no plastic dash or sofas commentary needed) and are waiting for the correction so they don't take the hit.
For those where the financial hit doesn't matter, have at it, but for those where it would hurt: waiting is the only rational choice.
braddo said:
Spevs said:
A month after I sold my car WBAC bid was 14k less than I received !
Wow...........
And it's evidence that WBAC isn't good at valuing 911s (and probably most low volume cars) - the previous month they were overpaying so the pendulum swings the other way the next month. Wow...........
I had the car 8 months and sold it for 2k less than what I paid new. I just got lucky ! As the Porsche 8k price increase had a temporary blip on second hand prices at the time .
I would say that WBAC is probably not the best place to achieve good prices for specialists cars or highly spec cars . But for lightly spec newish cars their prices are normally pitched right .
Edited by ClubsportStr on Tuesday 3rd October 15:35
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