How will this madness end?

[bqf]

If you're a car enthusiast, are you properly scratching your head and wondering how all this insanity that seems to be plaugeing the automotive industry/world is going to end? I mean:

1. Governments are doggedly sticking to their electric only mandates, in some cases (globally) just five years away
2. Manufacturers are slowing production of BEVs, as they simply can't shift them
3. Tariffs are going to batter the new Chinese entrants, especially in the US
4. Some in the industry seem to have gone insane - look at the Jaguar 're-imagining'

It feels like something seismic has to happen, otherwise, companies are definitely going bust, and people are definitely going to start rebelling (personal mobility is a key freedom we take for granted, if that gets eroded, there'll be trouble).

I just can't see me in 5 years, happily driving an EV, and wondering what all the fuss was about.

[steveo3002]

guessing somewhere between now and then will be a massive increase on fuels so only the rich can fuel an ice car or buy a new elec one

average joe wont be able to rock about in a £1000 focus or astra

[Mammasaid]

[Wills2]

bqf said:

I just can't see me in 5 years, happily driving an EV, and wondering what all the fuss was about.

You won't need to so it's all OK, relax.

[FestivAli]

I think a lot of brands are going to die, or at some point venture capital etc is just going to not be so generous anytime a brand goes looking to sell some equity to keep ticking along. Or automakers become the target of those consultancies that specialise in winding up busineses as best they can. I think Lotus and Jaguar are gonna get mothballed and there will be a lot of shrinkage or consolidation among everyone else. EVs are gonna stay, but probably only when they become more affordable and the focus changes away from premium aspirational cars to just you know, normal cars like the R5 otherwise they will just only have limited appeal. I have two mates with Teslas, they are happy with them and here is Aus there are loads of people in BYD Seals, Atto 6s, MG4s at least in northeastern suburbs of melbourne.

[Scootersp]

Wills2 said:

bqf said:

I just can't see me in 5 years, happily driving an EV, and wondering what all the fuss was about.

You won't need to so it's all OK, relax.

I don't think this was meant literallly as such, I agree it'll be a rocky path for the industry, as the decades of gradual improvement of ICE meant marketing/costings could be relied upon. Cradle to grave, design to production processes well drilled/consistent.

Recently this has been disrupted and is forcing manufacturers to develop and time things, eg BMW i3 too early maybe, there is no 100% right path for them, be a pioneer or to wait in the wings, what's best, hard to say?

It's a monumental change and consumers can largely wait in the wings which makes the manufacturers job harder. When a change is to some degree enforced and is not a complete no brainer to the consumer then you have tricky projections of rate of transition. In a scenario where everyone and his dogs next car was going to 100% be a EV then the projections can be more accurate and the background investment more certain of payback.

I suppose it's going to be survival of the fittest for them, and for us prices will continue to go up for a while longer?

[Huzzah]

For years we've overproduced and overconsumed cars.

Repair and reuse, be more Cuban.

[J4CKO]

bqf said:

If you're a car enthusiast, are you properly scratching your head and wondering how all this insanity that seems to be plaugeing the automotive industry/world is going to end? I mean:

1. Governments are doggedly sticking to their electric only mandates, in some cases (globally) just five years away
2. Manufacturers are slowing production of BEVs, as they simply can't shift them
3. Tariffs are going to batter the new Chinese entrants, especially in the US
4. Some in the industry seem to have gone insane - look at the Jaguar 're-imagining'

It feels like something seismic has to happen, otherwise, companies are definitely going bust, and people are definitely going to start rebelling (personal mobility is a key freedom we take for granted, if that gets eroded, there'll be trouble).

I just can't see me in 5 years, happily driving an EV, and wondering what all the fuss was about.

You can carry on as you are for the time being.

Plus, cars are still relatively new, we talk about "heritage" in reverential terms around things like Jaguar, which is only just over 100 years ago, things change, the car was a change from the horse and cart itself.

ICE was always a placeholder technology, becuase batteries only got you three yards and weight 3 tons, moan about EV batteries all you want but they are a lot better than they used to be and improving with all the development being done, I really cant see them not getting to a point where range and charging times become a distant concern.

Thing is, the individual and their personal preferences for combustion engines wont matter, depends more on overall adoption and petrolheads/enthusiasts are in the minority, sure, a lot of people watched Top Gear and love their car, but it doesnt necessarily make them a petrolhead.

Thing is, we will be replaced, Im 54 now, likely over two thirds through my life, my aspirations, influences, wants and needs will die with me, those coming up behind will have different preferences, none of them will likely want mark 1 Capri for weekends as they didnt grown up with one as a kid.

I cant see anyone backtracking and just doing ICE indefinitely, there was always going to be a transition period, but the benefits are too good to ignore and really, we cant keep burning oil like that, no car is perfect in that respect but would rather walk through a city full of EVs than diesel and petrol engines, I remember how bad things were in the seventies, until car exhausts got cats and electronic management came in, EV is the next step.

Not getting one, but then I am a dinosaur walking.

[Tagteam]

steveo3002 said:

guessing somewhere between now and then will be a massive increase on fuels so only the rich can fuel an ice car or buy a new elec one

average joe wont be able to rock about in a £1000 focus or astra

Sounds like Singapore

[Bluevanman]

steveo3002 said:

guessing somewhere between now and then will be a massive increase on fuels so only the rich can fuel an ice car or buy a new elec one

average joe wont be able to rock about in a £1000 focus or astra

So how's average Joe going to get to work and take the kids to school ? Public transport isn't up to the job, outside of London

[Tom8]

Labour party members will be driven around in luxury Tesla Zyls dropping their kids off at private schools.
The rest of us will walk in rabbit skin shoes to farm turnips to trade for anything useful

Heil glorious Starmerism.

[LeeM135i]

bqf said:

If you're a car enthusiast, are you properly scratching your head and wondering how all this insanity that seems to be plaugeing the automotive industry/world is going to end? I mean:

1. Governments are doggedly sticking to their electric only mandates, in some cases (globally) just five years away
2. Manufacturers are slowing production of BEVs, as they simply can't shift them
3. Tariffs are going to batter the new Chinese entrants, especially in the US
4. Some in the industry seem to have gone insane - look at the Jaguar 're-imagining'

It feels like something seismic has to happen, otherwise, companies are definitely going bust, and people are definitely going to start rebelling (personal mobility is a key freedom we take for granted, if that gets eroded, there'll be trouble).

I just can't see me in 5 years, happily driving an EV, and wondering what all the fuss was about.

I was very anti EV until a few months ago when I was given one as a company car, give one a go you might like it. I still have my C63 AMG with its epically noisy V8 but for daily driving it is very expensive to run.

The EV is just as quick, if not quicker in the real world of potholes, speed cameras and speed bumps.
Costs almost nothing to run so long as you cover under 300 miles a day (or 240 miles a day in the winter). Under 2p a mile.
Very quiet and relaxing place to spend hour after hour

It won't work for some use cases but I regularly cover 1000 miles a week, driven London to Scotland and back a couple of times and the EV has been just as easy to use as a petrol car. I stopped for 18 mins yesterday to charge on my way home from Birmingham, in that time I walked into the services had a pee, grabbed a coffee, walked back to the car and set off again. In 18 mins the car took on 40KWh which is around 160 miles or 3 hours of driving to get me home, it was 4 mins to much as I still had loads of electrons left when I got home.

The main challenge in my eyes is the cost and size of EV's, but everything is expensive and all cars are bigger now........ Looking for a EV for my wife at the moment and they are all a little too big but the compact ones are coming through with the Renault 5, Volvo EX30, Smart 1 etc etc. For my wife's use case it would only need charging every couple of weeks costing around £5 to fill it up at home.

[Bluevanman]

Whatever123 said:

How did the used to?

Kids went to the local school so could walk, nowadays schools can be miles away and Joe isn't going to let his kids walk anyway.
Similarly commuting was rare . There's more shift work too these days, plus weekends when most people stayed home,now we have 7 day 24 hour working.
It's just not a practical suggestion

[malaccamax]

Tom8 said:

Labour party members will be driven around in luxury Tesla Zyls dropping their kids off at private schools.
The rest of us will walk in rabbit skin shoes to farm turnips to trade for anything useful

Heil glorious Starmerism.

Starmer is both a communist and a Nazi? Also wasn't the current EV policy dreamed up by the Tories?

[Huzzah]

Bluevanman said:

Whatever123 said:

How did the used to?

Kids went to the local school so could walk, nowadays schools can be miles away and Joe isn't going to let his kids walk anyway.
Similarly commuting was rare . There's more shift work too these days, plus weekends when most people stayed home,now we have 7 day 24 hour working.
It's just not a practical suggestion

We will evolve.

[Huzzah]

malaccamax said:

Tom8 said:

Labour party members will be driven around in luxury Tesla Zyls dropping their kids off at private schools.
The rest of us will walk in rabbit skin shoes to farm turnips to trade for anything useful

Heil glorious Starmerism.

Starmer is both a communist and a Nazi? Also wasn't the current EV policy dreamed up by the Tories?

Yes Boris drew a (rather optimistic) line in the sand.

[BoRED S2upid]

It will probably end when we run out of raw materials to build batteries and realise petrol wasn’t such a bad idea. In 5 years time you will still be able to buy a petrol car likewise in 10 or 20 years time. Or simply move to America they won’t be ditching their big V8’s ever it’s against their freedom!

[rottenegg]

bqf said:

I just can't see me in 5 years, happily driving an EV, and wondering what all the fuss was about.

After seeing how this accelerates, I'll happily be in an EV in 5 years https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vJOriNNGcc

Quite honestly, with the ongoing headaches of DPF/OPF/EGR/LSPI and other modern day fickle junk, plus dealership incompetence, I'm done with ICE.

[Alickadoo]

bqf said:

I just can't see me in 5 years, happily driving an EV, and wondering what all the fuss was about.

Well, of course, you won't have to.

You can buy a new ICE car until 2030(?) and a used ICE indefinitely.

Have you tried an EV?

[Biggles Flies Undone]

malaccamax said:

Tom8 said:

Labour party members will be driven around in luxury Tesla Zyls dropping their kids off at private schools.
The rest of us will walk in rabbit skin shoes to farm turnips to trade for anything useful

Heil glorious Starmerism.

Starmer is both a communist and a Nazi? Also wasn't the current EV policy dreamed up by the Tories?

Oh no. You have to remember that Starmer is responsible for absolutely everything going wrong in the world. The last lot have no responsibility for anything.

Back to reality, I can definitely see trouble brewing. BEV (and we have had 2 so far) are great for certain things and as a second car/daily commuting tool, they are absolutely brilliant. However, no EV is yet a true replacement for the do everything family wagon that most people run around in.

If there is a step change in Battery tech (and I can't see one happening right now) that would allow much faster charging and way better energy density, the EV's will take over, as they will just be better.

Unfortunately, the legislators are really relying on that sort of technical leap. Consumers don't tend to change their habits unless there is a reason to do so. If a BEV was better than an ICE car, then we'd all just move over, but when people perceive them as worse, then we don't, but with deadlines approaching, then people will rightly resent being forced to move to something worse.

Then we have to look at what happens to second hand cars. A lot of motorists in the Uk and around the world, don't buy or lease new cars, they buy 2nd or 3rd hand. Not everyone does PH style bangernomics, but cars of 3-5 years old that have lost much of their value, but aren't completely knackered yet tend to be very popular, so how do we deal with that when the 2nd hand market for EV's simply doesn't exist and for very good reason?

The finances around Ev's are horrible. They cost a bomb to buy. They are worth naff all after a few years. No-one wants them second hand. Oh and we have the fact that everyone is skint anyway...

I'm not sure how we fix this tbh, but I suspect a lot of manufacturers are going to be in trouble over the next few years.