VW / legacy car makers shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic?

VW / legacy car makers shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic?

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Discussion

Shrek2onDVD

Original Poster:

17,955 posts

207 months

Wednesday 6th November
quotequote all
I'm interested in car news, but I don't work in the industry .
So genuinely not sure if the feeds I receive are over inflated clickbait.
Or is the sky is genuinely starting to fall and this is the start of the new world order in the car world.

New cars are just not selling due to price and EVs not being what enough people want.
Volkswagen is likely to close one of its factories in Europe with the CEO stating 'The Roof Is on Fire' and everything is at stake.
Mercedes has admitted that punters are simply not buying the 4-cyl C63, wow what a surprise that is..
VW ID4 sales in USA are only 20% of production forecast - fook me!
UK & European populations in general are a bit broke due to cost of living racing ahead of earnings, and just hanging onto their cars for longer.
Or buying cheaper budget brands like Dacia.
VW and others rushed to set up manufacturing in China 25 year ago and enjoyed expansion, now sales contracting as Chinese firms use the know-how to produce much cheaper (and better?) cars.
Telsa can make a car in 30% of the time it takes VW. And China can sell an EV at 50% of what a Tesla costs.
Jaguar just casually saying "guys, we're just going to stop making cars for a bit, don't worry though, all is good here, we'll errr, see you all soon"
Volvo has abandoned its goal of becoming a fully electric carmaker by 2030 due to declining demand for battery-powered vehicles.

Car making is a heavy fixed-cost business needing massive capex in factories and people.
And R&D cycles are long - I'm guessing models get the go/no go stamp years before the first ones actually hit the road.

Its all getting a bit real for the big players right now.

ETA mods, feel free to move / merge if there is a general industy thread running already.

Edited by Shrek2onDVD on Wednesday 6th November 18:41

DegsyE39

591 posts

134 months

Wednesday 6th November
quotequote all
I do feel like we are living in very interesting times right now, If you'd of told me jaguar would be going bye bye 20 years ago I'd of just laughed!

Also what about trump getting in is this another nail in the coffins for EVs? are the yank auto makers gonna wish they kept making v8s when he tears the climate accord up again lmao


996Type

861 posts

159 months

Wednesday 6th November
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Harry’s Garage latest video on this very subject is very interesting if you have 20 minutes to watch….

Wills2

24,384 posts

182 months

Wednesday 6th November
quotequote all
It's certainly a bump in the road for them and capitalism is a cannibalistic system, just look at how many companies are left in the FTSE100 from 100 years ago not many, businesses grow and then they die.

Ford/GM etc...all effectively went bankrupt during the financial crash and had to be bailed out and I think we'll see something happen for VW and Merc etc...if needed, yesterdays election has hammered the German brands shareholders with all the threats of tariffs from the US, however I do think a deal will be struck to freeze out China rather than an all out trade war between the US and EU.

But as ever the consumer will decide, make products people want and can afford and you'll be alright.




GT9

7,533 posts

179 months

Wednesday 6th November
quotequote all
The only viable way forward for many of them is to try to slow the transition to fully electric, as opposed to the fantasy claickbaity stuff along the lines of hydrogen miracle, miracle engine invention, etc.

Volvo have adjusted their 2030 plans to 90-100% electric, so it's not exactly an about face.

I think it's a given that each manufacturer needs to have a comprehensive and competitive range of EVs to survive long term, there simply isn't an option to completely abandon batteries and just go back to engines, that has death spiral written all over it.

Hybridisation is the obvious answer in the short term, but it should be recognised that the whiff of 'worst of both worlds' never goes away with hybrids and they are essentially a stop-gap, the question is, how long is the gap?

Bear in mind that we are right now in the low point of the Gartner hype cycle, so an element of panic and uncertainty exists.

Steady hands and level heads are needed, no doubt.

Kuwahara

1,032 posts

25 months

Wednesday 6th November
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Perfect storm for VW they went in balls deep on EVs and the Chinese market.

The ID3 was fault riddled on launch and they have never really recovered at least I don’t see many of them.

The Chinese will produce better cars than VW and at a better price point.

VW’s products have not been semi premium for over a decade with a couple of exceptions,Golf7/7.5 and probably Phaeton.

People are getting over the badge snobbery and going Kia/ Hyundai band even MG.

legless

1,796 posts

147 months

Wednesday 6th November
quotequote all
Wills2 said:
Ford/GM etc...all effectively went bankrupt during the financial crash and had to be bailed out
GM and Chrysler both went bankrupt, but Ford managed to ride it out. I only know this because I made an absolute killing buying the shares when they crashed (with everyone expecting them to follow the other Detroit firms) and then they didn't, so the shares rocketed.

Having said this though, I wouldn't touch their shares with a triple-wrapped, asbestos-lined stunt cock right now though.

C69

537 posts

19 months

Wednesday 6th November
quotequote all
Shrek2onDVD said:
VW and others rushed to set up manufacturing in China 25 year ago and enjoyed expansion, now sales contracting as Chinese firms use the know-how to produce much cheaper (and better?) cars.
It didn't need Nostradamus to predict this happening, especially as China insisted that foreign manufacturers had to partner with Chinese companies in order to set up factories there.

What's interesting is that European manufacturers seem to have been lobbying against EU tariffs on imported Chinese cars. It's as if they've realised that most customers either don't know or don't care where their new car is assembled, so why not shift as much production as possible to China to maximise profits? The politicians and unions are, understandably, less keen on such a strategy.

Wills2

24,384 posts

182 months

Wednesday 6th November
quotequote all
legless said:
Wills2 said:
Ford/GM etc...all effectively went bankrupt during the financial crash and had to be bailed out
GM and Chrysler both went bankrupt, but Ford managed to ride it out. I only know this because I made an absolute killing buying the shares when they crashed (with everyone expecting them to follow the other Detroit firms) and then they didn't, so the shares rocketed.

Having said this though, I wouldn't touch their shares with a triple-wrapped, asbestos-lined stunt cock right now though.
It was general point (which I'm sure still came across) I'll bow to your googling, yes I made money on banking shares and house builders myself as "everyone was going bust."




GT9

7,533 posts

179 months

Wednesday 6th November
quotequote all
Kuwahara said:
People are getting over the badge snobbery and going Kia/ Hyundai band even MG.
This is somewhat powertrain independent.
China and South Korea can also manufacture engines.
Yes, engineering out the harshness and other undesirable traits for ICE cars is something the legacy manufacturers might be slightly better at, but that's not going to save them in the medium to long term.

Tindersticks

1,287 posts

7 months

Wednesday 6th November
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VW have found that lying to your customers a la Dieselgate may end up costing you your entire business.

cptsideways

13,648 posts

259 months

Wednesday 6th November
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Customers not getting what they want might have something to do with it!

The list is pretty endless and most manufacturers are guilty.

Real buttons, not buried deep in touchscreen menus
Stupid safety systems
Advertised v real life range
Dreadful buggy infotainment systems
Poor or non existent updates
Post COVID price gauging
Dreadful design and inbuilt obselence
Dealers only there for the finance backhanders



Terminator X

16,327 posts

211 months

Wednesday 6th November
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Car industry is in chaos right now IMHO and it seems it will only get worse. Govt intervention set to cause absolute bedlam.

TX.

Semperagressus

14 posts

21 months

Wednesday 6th November
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VW paid out billions for diesel gate, they then hit a perfect storm of their quality going through the floor and doing everything cheap to maximise and maintain profits, customers are not stupid. When your interiors start to look cheap feel cheap whilst Hyundai/Kia etc are massively improving theirs the writing is on the wall, witnessed by me last week.

VAG dealerships trying to go on past reputation and poor customer service, again people are not stupid. Last month my wife went in to look at a new Tiguan asked the salesman for some details on the model all she got was “scan the QR code, the car sells itself” She then asked him if she could have a test drive to her work (up hills through town etc) he replied “not now but if you pop back in Thursday we can go up the dual carriage way that’s our normal test drive route”

She went to the Renault garage, given an Austral for an hours solo test drive, went to Hyundai and given a new Kona again for an hours solo test drive. Both dealers pretty good, followed up phone calls and Hyundai even called and said they had the EV N-line version in now if she wanted to pop back in for a look and test drive. Both dealers helpful not pushy unlike VW dealership “car sells itself”

No wonder they are in trouble.

richhead

1,647 posts

18 months

Wednesday 6th November
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It always goes in cycles, look at bl etc in the 70,s trading on your name only lasts so long.
VW BMW have been doing the same for a decade.
A better competitor always comes alone while you rest on your laurels,

SuperPav

1,125 posts

132 months

Thursday 7th November
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C69 said:
It didn't need Nostradamus to predict this happening, especially as China insisted that foreign manufacturers had to partner with Chinese companies in order to set up factories there.

What's interesting is that European manufacturers seem to have been lobbying against EU tariffs on imported Chinese cars. It's as if they've realised that most customers either don't know or don't care where their new car is assembled, so why not shift as much production as possible to China to maximise profits? The politicians and unions are, understandably, less keen on such a strategy.
That's not why EU OEM's are lobbying against tariffs - they're lobbying against them because any EU tariff will result in reciprocal action from China, and all the EU OEM's are heavily reliant on distorted China profits. For years they've been absolutely spanking the Chinese market (think approx 2-4x the margin on a car sold in China vs EU domestic market), offsetting the low margins in other regions.

Correction is now coming, so they'll need to adapt pronto. What's happened in the meantime is that the Chinese local OEM's have learnt how to compete almost eye-to-eye with the mass/lower end premium EU OEM's, making it even harder.


kambites

68,437 posts

228 months

Thursday 7th November
quotequote all
SuperPav said:
That's not why EU OEM's are lobbying against tariffs - they're lobbying against them because any EU tariff will result in reciprocal action from China, and all the EU OEM's are heavily reliant on distorted China profits. For years they've been absolutely spanking the Chinese market (think approx 2-4x the margin on a car sold in China vs EU domestic market), offsetting the low margins in other regions.
yes Last year the value of cars exported from Europe to China was roughly double the value of cars exported from China to Europe.

Ziplobb

1,410 posts

291 months

Thursday 7th November
quotequote all
not being able to buy what you want
I understand this is partly due to legislation
but no suzuki jeep vehicle, no decent pick up choice, no basic utility like older landcrusier. No cheap to B cars although Dacia came closest. Stuff is just too complicated and expensive. Someone made the point about buttons and screens earlier. I dont want that stuff ! When I bin my Navarra off next year as it will only have a year warranty left and its beeen a PITA our youngest car will be 2012. I dont plan on buying anything new again. MX5 is 25, my old Ranger is 25, The 911 is 16 and the Missus Zippys Golf is 12. Both kids have 2009 Fiats that just seem to go on and on with little spend needed .

kambites

68,437 posts

228 months

Thursday 7th November
quotequote all
DegsyE39 said:
Also what about trump getting in is this another nail in the coffins for EVs? are the yank auto makers gonna wish they kept making v8s when he tears the climate accord up again lmao
Given how deeply he's got into bed with Musk, he's not going to do anything to hurt EV sales. As far as I can see Trump couldn't care less what type of cars people buy as long as they're made by Americans. I think he'll just leave the domestic market well alone, whilst making it prohibitively expensive for anyone to import cars. Which is obviously also going to hurt the European car industry.

Dynion Araf Uchaf

4,681 posts

230 months

Thursday 7th November
quotequote all
Tindersticks said:
VW have found that lying to your customers a la Dieselgate may end up costing you your entire business.



obviously British buyers have short memories or just don't care.