Are European car manufacturers doomed?
Discussion
I've just been reading about the state of Volkswagen (in short, they are massively below where they need to be sales wise and are considering closing German factories for the first time in their history) and their current malaise appears to be one affecting many of the more traditional car manufacturers (falling demand, people don't really want their product, cheaper alternatives available).
Given the current economic and legislative environment, I just can't see how many of the traditional volume car manufacturers are going to survive.
Zero emissions mandates, a 2035 ban on ICE, and good cheap cars from China seems almost insurmountable.
I love cars but I'm part of the problem - I have no real interest in any of the new cars coming out and so I'll probably just keep my daily until it becomes un-economic to repair. When that moment comes, I'm just as likely to buy a cheap Chinese EV as I am anything else (full disclaimer, I have sports cars and race cars to satisfy my petrol head needs). I can't see myself really caring about an EV - it'll be transport and nothing else - and so I'll just choose something based on price.
I can't imagine that I'm alone in this and so the question is, are traditional European car manufacturers f**ked?
Given the current economic and legislative environment, I just can't see how many of the traditional volume car manufacturers are going to survive.
Zero emissions mandates, a 2035 ban on ICE, and good cheap cars from China seems almost insurmountable.
I love cars but I'm part of the problem - I have no real interest in any of the new cars coming out and so I'll probably just keep my daily until it becomes un-economic to repair. When that moment comes, I'm just as likely to buy a cheap Chinese EV as I am anything else (full disclaimer, I have sports cars and race cars to satisfy my petrol head needs). I can't see myself really caring about an EV - it'll be transport and nothing else - and so I'll just choose something based on price.
I can't imagine that I'm alone in this and so the question is, are traditional European car manufacturers f**ked?
The cars they build at the moment are beyond bland. Is there a more non-descript car than a Tiguan. A new Touareg hybrid parked up next to me and it did look pretty good in a dark electric blue colour but I bet that has a list price in the region of £70k. I did note when I had both that the radar cruise was nicer and more intuitive to use in my 2012 Touareg than it was in a 2022 ID3.
Even the new Golf R, is it the mk8? Looks like a big backwards step.
Chinese import tariffs should help a bit, I imagine they're lobbying our government fairly hard to introduce them but then again maybe not, depends how much they need the European market.
Even the new Golf R, is it the mk8? Looks like a big backwards step.
Chinese import tariffs should help a bit, I imagine they're lobbying our government fairly hard to introduce them but then again maybe not, depends how much they need the European market.
Not all of them.
VW have gone completely wrong with their products. Their EV range is uncompetitive, their ICE cars are plagued by cost cutting and unattractive designs. Doesn’t mean they can’t pull it back.
The Stellantis group are really struggling due to a confused strategy, quality issues and too many brands - British Leyland for the 2020s.
BMW are doing pretty well.
The companies who get it right will be OK.
VW have gone completely wrong with their products. Their EV range is uncompetitive, their ICE cars are plagued by cost cutting and unattractive designs. Doesn’t mean they can’t pull it back.
The Stellantis group are really struggling due to a confused strategy, quality issues and too many brands - British Leyland for the 2020s.
BMW are doing pretty well.
The companies who get it right will be OK.
I think a few might fall by the way side, but most of the big ones will change their business by begrudgingly making EV's, cutting costs and adapting to demand.
As for the further future, who knows what laws the governments will implement. It's possible no cars will be economically viable, European, Chinese or otherwise. I've got a suspicion that they'd rather we were all on public transport.
As for the further future, who knows what laws the governments will implement. It's possible no cars will be economically viable, European, Chinese or otherwise. I've got a suspicion that they'd rather we were all on public transport.
ChocolateFrog said:
The cars they build at the moment are beyond bland. Is there a more non-descript car than a Tiguan. A new Touareg hybrid parked up next to me and it did look pretty good in a dark electric blue colour but I bet that has a list price in the region of £70k. I did note when I had both that the radar cruise was nicer and more intuitive to use in my 2012 Touareg than it was in a 2022 ID3.
Even the new Golf R, is it the mk8? Looks like a big backwards step.
Chinese import tariffs should help a bit, I imagine they're lobbying our government fairly hard to introduce them but then again maybe not, depends how much they need the European market.
If I was in charge at VAG I'd drop VW altogether now, and they just sit in no mans land to me. I'd imagine that most folk now buy a Skoda over a VW, and if you want something that bit more over a Skoda then you go to Audi. There just isn't a place for VW in the market anymore from what I can see. Even the new Golf R, is it the mk8? Looks like a big backwards step.
Chinese import tariffs should help a bit, I imagine they're lobbying our government fairly hard to introduce them but then again maybe not, depends how much they need the European market.
There’s been really quite a lot of discussion about the issues surrounding the European car industry over the last several months as the problems become more and more obvious.
Just yesterday The Guardian ran an article about VW.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...
Other articles from other publications crop up pretty much daily and I imagine the MSM will have become more interested in recent weeks as pressure grows to apply tariffs on Chinese made electric cars (cos they remain so much cheaper than European made offerings, generally, and the outlook for Chinese manufacturers looks rosier than the legacy European manufacturers, generally, combined with VW’s public announcements about possible plant closures blah blah.
Naturally politics as well as economics is front and centre.
Just yesterday The Guardian ran an article about VW.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...
Other articles from other publications crop up pretty much daily and I imagine the MSM will have become more interested in recent weeks as pressure grows to apply tariffs on Chinese made electric cars (cos they remain so much cheaper than European made offerings, generally, and the outlook for Chinese manufacturers looks rosier than the legacy European manufacturers, generally, combined with VW’s public announcements about possible plant closures blah blah.
Naturally politics as well as economics is front and centre.
It's not just people buying fewer cars but people just not buying their (VW) cars. Not just them but others too.
I find it ironic. The west exploiting cheap labour and outsourcing is seen as positive, because we don't really care about exploiting third world countries. Third world countries evolving and out pricing the west is now a price war and must be dealt with. You reap what you sow.
Whilst the rest of the world has moved to outsourcing almost everything, Chinese manufacturers are heavily into vertical integration. It's better overall.
Musk loved being a disruptor and embarrassed established manufacturers with Tesla. Chinese manufacturers are now embarrassing Musk.
VW and others have chased the Chinese market as it's huge but it's backfiring as their own cars are now almost better but critically cheaper. I'd imagine the west will soon lose any serious market share in China and with Chinese cars spreading, will stuff them up here too. It doesn't help when most established manufacturers are producing mediocre products that are too expensive for the public. So yes I think most manufacturers are f
ked but is mostly of their own doing.
I find it ironic. The west exploiting cheap labour and outsourcing is seen as positive, because we don't really care about exploiting third world countries. Third world countries evolving and out pricing the west is now a price war and must be dealt with. You reap what you sow.
Whilst the rest of the world has moved to outsourcing almost everything, Chinese manufacturers are heavily into vertical integration. It's better overall.
Musk loved being a disruptor and embarrassed established manufacturers with Tesla. Chinese manufacturers are now embarrassing Musk.
VW and others have chased the Chinese market as it's huge but it's backfiring as their own cars are now almost better but critically cheaper. I'd imagine the west will soon lose any serious market share in China and with Chinese cars spreading, will stuff them up here too. It doesn't help when most established manufacturers are producing mediocre products that are too expensive for the public. So yes I think most manufacturers are f
ked but is mostly of their own doing.charltjr said:
Not all of them.
VW have gone completely wrong with their products. Their EV range is uncompetitive, their ICE cars are plagued by cost cutting and unattractive designs. Doesn’t mean they can’t pull it back.
The Stellantis group are really struggling due to a confused strategy, quality issues and too many brands - British Leyland for the 2020s.
BMW are doing pretty well.
The companies who get it right will be OK.
I disagree I think with this zero emissions mandate we have handed over the entire car industry over to China. China are miles ahead of the EU with EV's and I think it is already the beginning of the end. The west had decades of R&D with ICE that China simply couldn't match. With EV's it is all flipped on its head. China are on a even playing field now basically and can make the cars at a fraction of the price and have zero need to focus on ICE with 100% focus on EV's. Kind of ironic a communist state using those advantages to win at capitalism!VW have gone completely wrong with their products. Their EV range is uncompetitive, their ICE cars are plagued by cost cutting and unattractive designs. Doesn’t mean they can’t pull it back.
The Stellantis group are really struggling due to a confused strategy, quality issues and too many brands - British Leyland for the 2020s.
BMW are doing pretty well.
The companies who get it right will be OK.
Now I think the UK has done one thing right in all of this and dumped its manufacturing side of things and focused on service. That is the future of the west as you just cannot compete with China and most likely in the future India/Africa.
No one has a right to be successful. BL was one of the biggest in the world in 50's and sold millions of vehicles. In 50 years it was no more.
Now there’s a question! The thread needs to be considered alongside an equally serious one ( going strong yesterday) about the price of new cars and vans which have not been adjusted since the partly justified Covid rises. On the VW issue - and we have had several- I think the brand will still express good quality to many because of having traditionally been a cut above average .The early Golf was head and shoulders above its rivals, even though you paid a small premium to enjoy it. But all that was a long time ago and most of us will have read posts on the perplexing screens and lack of comprehensible buttons in the new Golf, for example. A poster yesterday felt , in mitigation, we get far more technology in new cars. The trouble with that is that many of us neither want nor need it not understand it. The Chinese are in a similar position to the Koreans of two decades ago, whio were criticised by enthusiasts until they upped their game and retained a big price advantage. No the question is not simple, but VW are not in a good place.
Edited by Lester H on Sunday 8th September 09:38
It’s also interesting to note that new ICE product that you want to buy today won’t be delivered until the new year due to the 22% EV registration mandate.
Typical motor industry, don’t worry about next year just worry about this one.
If the swing from this continues where ICE sales are delayed until the ZEV target in each year is completed, you won’t be able to buy an Ice by about 2031 let alone 2035.
The systematic destruction of the car industry is just bonkers, and I think there will be a significant regulatory change before 2035. Not by SKS but the next government.
Typical motor industry, don’t worry about next year just worry about this one.
If the swing from this continues where ICE sales are delayed until the ZEV target in each year is completed, you won’t be able to buy an Ice by about 2031 let alone 2035.
The systematic destruction of the car industry is just bonkers, and I think there will be a significant regulatory change before 2035. Not by SKS but the next government.
said:
We are being forced into a Political Command led market rather than one of free choice
Its pure insanity that will lead to millions of well paid jobs being lost and the subsequent political instability that will surely follow
VW in particular got sucked right in by China’s “come and exploit our booming market while handing all of your knowledge and IP over to the Chinese partner you must have to do business here” policy.
The Chinese market has gone towards Chinese home brands, and VW’s sales there aren’t as strong as they were, plus in Europe (and elsewhere) the Chinese brands are busy undercutting established brands, with state help, to buy the market.
They also make bland ste, and the whole “you must invest and sell 100% EVs even although only 10% of people want one” requirement isn’t helping.
The Chinese market has gone towards Chinese home brands, and VW’s sales there aren’t as strong as they were, plus in Europe (and elsewhere) the Chinese brands are busy undercutting established brands, with state help, to buy the market.
They also make bland s
te, and the whole “you must invest and sell 100% EVs even although only 10% of people want one” requirement isn’t helping.charltjr said:
Not all of them.
VW have gone completely wrong with their products. Their EV range is uncompetitive, their ICE cars are plagued by cost cutting and unattractive designs. Doesn’t mean they can’t pull it back.
I think VW isn’t helped by its servicing dealers - their aim in life seems to be to fVW have gone completely wrong with their products. Their EV range is uncompetitive, their ICE cars are plagued by cost cutting and unattractive designs. Doesn’t mean they can’t pull it back.
k people over. The “All In” package is pretty good, except the dealer tries to scam you out of hundreds extra for random “mandatory” stuff which, if it’s mandatory, should be included. People pay up, then seeth about it.Earthdweller said:
Lets face it when you are selling a product for £18k ( Clio) and the Government will fine you £15k for doing so, why would you?
We are being forced into a Political Command led market rather than one of free choice
Its pure insanity that will lead to millions of well paid jobs being lost and the subsequent political instability that will surely follow
I think the bit I put in bold is the bigger picture. We talk as if the car companies are free to compete to save themselves but that is less and less true.We are being forced into a Political Command led market rather than one of free choice
Its pure insanity that will lead to millions of well paid jobs being lost and the subsequent political instability that will surely follow
Gericho said:
it's all man-made politics, including China taking over. Whatever happens is a result of scheming to make it happen that way. It's not like all the people in government and the car industry have suddenly been taken by surprise.
Exactly, while I agree with the comments above about VW's lacklustre current offerings, the regulatory regime within which no European manufacturer can invest with confidence is the catalyst to the problem. grumbledoak said:
Earthdweller said:
Lets face it when you are selling a product for £18k ( Clio) and the Government will fine you £15k for doing so, why would you?
We are being forced into a Political Command led market rather than one of free choice
Its pure insanity that will lead to millions of well paid jobs being lost and the subsequent political instability that will surely follow
I think the bit I put in bold is the bigger picture. We talk as if the car companies are free to compete to save themselves but that is less and less true.We are being forced into a Political Command led market rather than one of free choice
Its pure insanity that will lead to millions of well paid jobs being lost and the subsequent political instability that will surely follow
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