Would Alonso have won the WDC were he in Seb's seat?

[HustleRussell]

Just a bit of fun!

In a parallel universe, Alonso re-signed for Ferrari for the 2015 season and stayed throughout the turbo hybrid era. Vettel stayed at Red Bull. All other things being equal, Ferrari strategic decisions, strategy and mistakes being the same, the outright performance of the car and the performance compared to Mercedes being the same, would Alonso have succeeded where Vettel has failed?

[HustleRussell]

As an addition to the above, do we think that Alonso is sick as a pig due to Ferrari having (contrary to his predictions) built a potential championship car, knowing that he could've won the title in it?

Or

Does Alonso view Ferrari's procedural and strategic errors this season as sufficient proof that he was indeed right, and even if he was in the car and the car was good enough, Ferrari would have bungled the championship away anyway?

[geeks]

I think given last years and this years car from Ferrari FA would have two more titles under his belt!

[Exige77]

Wudda Cudda Shudda again.

He can’t have his good part without his bad part.

A very fine driver overshadowed by being a burk. Even in a parallel universe.

[Evangelion]

Problem is of course, that all other things wouldn't have been equal. I like to think that Alonso would have been more hands on, and had a greater say in how the team was run. The awful cock-ups that Ferrari have had this year for example, might never have happened. I'm not saying Hamilton and Mercedes would have been left in the dust, but they wouldn't have had both championships handed to them on a plate either.

[Vaud]

No idea. I think he might have been wheel to wheel with Lewis more, with the probability of both of them being taken out... maybe we would be looking at a 3 way scrap with Bottas as the 3rd, etc.

[The Surveyor]

HustleRussell said:

Just a bit of fun!

In a parallel universe, Alonso re-signed for Ferrari for the 2015 season and stayed throughout the turbo hybrid era. Vettel stayed at Red Bull. All other things being equal, Ferrari strategic decisions, strategy and mistakes being the same, the outright performance of the car and the performance compared to Mercedes being the same, would Alonso have succeeded where Vettel has failed?

No, there is self-destruct attitude in Ferrari caused by excessive expectation IMHO.

[housen]

i think yes

also i think yes he must cry himself to sleep each night thinking of how he should have stayed there

[MissChief]

It’s a widely held belief that the Ferrari car of last year was very close to the Mercedes and this year has been a match for it in some situations and better than it in others. Ferrari aren’t winning the WDC or WCC because of their own Strategy errors as well as Vettel cracking under pressure and making mistakes. Also not having a hungry and consistently fast second driver didn’t help either. I love Kimi but he doesn’t push Vettel to be better. Leclerc could even have the beating of Vettel next season and I’m fully expecting a complete Vettel meltdown.

[Vaud]

MissChief said:

Leclerc could even have the beating of Vettel next season and I’m fully expecting a complete Vettel meltdown.

He only has 2019 and 2020 contracted. Probably some mutually agree break clauses. I think he'd just exit.

[oyster]

Some short memories on this thread.

Alonso already threw away one title with Ferrari because of a tactical error.

Other than a desire to beat up on Vettel (or gloat from a Mercedes fan view), there’s no evidence that Alonso would be any closer to Lewis.

Furthermore, it’s hard to see how anyone could be ahead now given the points lead.

[heebeegeetee]

I think he would have done a much better job than Seb has, I think he would have been much more pro-active in preventing Ferrari from making so many mistakes.

[oyster]

Some short memories on this thread.

Alonso already threw away one title with Ferrari because of a tactical error.

Other than a desire to beat up on Vettel (or gloat from a Mercedes fan view), there’s no evidence that Alonso would be any closer to Lewis.

Furthermore, it’s hard to see how anyone could be ahead now given the points lead.

[housen]

oyster said:

Furthermore, it’s hard to see how anyone could be ahead now given the points lead.

lollllllllllllllllllll


that's the whole point of this discussion

what IF alonso was driving hahahahah would he be winning now

[thegreenhell]

If we say that everything else remains the same, but just plug Alonso into Vettel's car this year, and assume that Alonso has the exact same pace as Vettel but crucially doesn't make any unforced errors, than things would certainly be different.

If we highlight five races where Vettel's driving errors in races have cost him certain points, and reverse the effects of those errors, then:

Azerbaijan - Alonso didn't lock up and run wide in his pass attempt for the lead at the restart. Alonso wins, Hamilton second. ALO +13, HAM -7
France - Alonso didn't hit Bottas at the start, instead held on to third behind both Mercedes. ALO +8
Germany - Alonso didn't crash out of the lead. Alonso wins, Hamilton second. ALO +25, HAM -7
Italy - Alonso didn't spin defending from Hamilton on lap 1. Alonso passes Kimi to win, Hamilton second. ALO +13, HAM -7
Japan - Alonso didn't spin trying to pass Max, but passed him cleanly on the following straight. Alonso finishes third behind both Mercedes. ALO +7

The resulting championship table after Suzuka would be Alonso 330, Hamilton 310

In each case I've tried not to predict any other effects of reversing those errors, such as whether Hamilton could have caught and passed the Ferrari in the rain in Germany, or whether Alonso could have caught and passed Bottas in France or Japan. Instead I've just reversed the error and then held station with how the race actually played out. The only exception to this is that I think Alonso would have passed Kimi early on at Monza, with the rest of the race happening as it did behind him.

[andburg]

thegreenhell said:

If we say that everything else remains the same, but just plug Alonso into Vettel's car this year, and assume that Alonso has the exact same pace as Vettel but crucially doesn't make any unforced errors, than things would certainly be different.

If we highlight five races where Vettel's driving errors in races have cost him certain points, and reverse the effects of those errors, then:

Azerbaijan - Alonso didn't lock up and run wide in his pass attempt for the lead at the restart. Alonso wins, Hamilton second. ALO +13, HAM -7
France - Alonso didn't hit Bottas at the start, instead held on to third behind both Mercedes. ALO +8
Germany - Alonso didn't crash out of the lead. Alonso wins, Hamilton second. ALO +25, HAM -7
Italy - Alonso didn't spin defending from Hamilton on lap 1. Alonso passes Kimi to win, Hamilton second. ALO +13, HAM -7
Japan - Alonso didn't spin trying to pass Max, but passed him cleanly on the following straight. Alonso finishes third behind both Mercedes. ALO +7

The resulting championship table after Suzuka would be Alonso 330, Hamilton 310

In each case I've tried not to predict any other effects of reversing those errors, such as whether Hamilton could have caught and passed the Ferrari in the rain in Germany, or whether Alonso could have caught and passed Bottas in France or Japan. Instead I've just reversed the error and then held station with how the race actually played out. The only exception to this is that I think Alonso would have passed Kimi early on at Monza, with the rest of the race happening as it did behind him.

This shows the truth of this year, Lewis is ahead because he hasn't made the mistakes that Vettel has.
Its no wonder the italian press are ridiculing vettel and looking for blood when you see how differently this could have played out.

[The Surveyor]

andburg said:

This shows the truth of this year, Lewis is ahead because he hasn't made the mistakes that Vettel has.
Its no wonder the italian press are ridiculing vettel and looking for blood when you see how differently this could have played out.

I think that's very unfair on Vettel, Hamilton is ahead because Mercedes have made fewer mistakes than Ferrari. The drivers being just one part of that whole team.

Ferrari have shown this season that even when their engineers give the drivers a fast car, they can't keep their faster car at the front.

[The Moose]

The Surveyor said:

andburg said:

This shows the truth of this year, Lewis is ahead because he hasn't made the mistakes that Vettel has.
Its no wonder the italian press are ridiculing vettel and looking for blood when you see how differently this could have played out.

I think that's very unfair on Vettel, Hamilton is ahead because Mercedes have made fewer mistakes than Ferrari. The drivers being just one part of that whole team.

Ferrari have shown this season that even when their engineers give the drivers a fast car, they can't keep their faster car at the front.

As we all know, a huge amount goes into getting those cars to the grid, but once the lights go out and the racing starts, it’s down to the drivers to not screw it up. As highlighted, Vettel has made numerous silly mistakes this year, for whatever reason.

[thegreenhell]

The Surveyor said:

andburg said:

This shows the truth of this year, Lewis is ahead because he hasn't made the mistakes that Vettel has.
Its no wonder the italian press are ridiculing vettel and looking for blood when you see how differently this could have played out.

I think that's very unfair on Vettel, Hamilton is ahead because Mercedes have made fewer mistakes than Ferrari. The drivers being just one part of that whole team.

Ferrari have shown this season that even when their engineers give the drivers a fast car, they can't keep their faster car at the front.

All it shows is the direct effects of Vettel's various bumps, spins and crashes on the track this year. It doesn't try to change any of the car or team influence on the equation. No strategy calls were changed, and no team errors were rectified. It just shows that in five single driving mistakes, Vettel has turned a potential 20 point lead into a 67 point deficit.

[The Surveyor]

The Moose said:

As we all know, a huge amount goes into getting those cars to the grid, but once the lights go out and the racing starts, it’s down to the drivers to not screw it up. As highlighted, Vettel has made numerous silly mistakes this year, for whatever reason.

thegreenhell said:

All it shows is the direct effects of Vettel's various bumps, spins and crashes on the track this year. It doesn't try to change any of the car or team influence on the equation. No strategy calls were changed, and no team errors were rectified. It just shows that in five single driving mistakes, Vettel has turned a potential 20 point lead into a 67 point deficit.

So what's Kimi's excuse?

I'm no Vettel fan, but it looks to me that he is having to try much harder under much greater pressure than Hamilton. That greater expectation is leading to more frequent errors and I'm not convinced Alonso would have performed any better under the same pressure. The team are adding to Sebs pressure rather than helping him cope. I'd suspect in the same set of circumstances Alonso would be cruising with Kimi, rather that brawling with Bottas.