Which of the remaining tracks will suit which cars?
Discussion
I'm sure there was a list somewhere where people had had a best guess at which would be "mercedes" and which would be "ferrari" tracks, but I can't find it. My guess would be :
Singapore : Ferrari
Malaysian : Mercedes
Japanese Grand Prix : Mercedes
United States Grand Prix :Mercedes
Mexican Grand Prix : Mercedes
Brazilian Grand Prix : Ferrari
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix : Ferrari
What do others think (or better still, can you remember the article where a proper expert wrote it up?)
Singapore : Ferrari
Malaysian : Mercedes
Japanese Grand Prix : Mercedes
United States Grand Prix :Mercedes
Mexican Grand Prix : Mercedes
Brazilian Grand Prix : Ferrari
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix : Ferrari
What do others think (or better still, can you remember the article where a proper expert wrote it up?)
Flooble said:
I'm sure there was a list somewhere where people had had a best guess at which would be "mercedes" and which would be "ferrari" tracks, but I can't find it. My guess would be :
Singapore : Ferrari
Malaysian : Mercedes
Japanese Grand Prix : Mercedes
United States Grand Prix :Mercedes
Mexican Grand Prix : Mercedes
Brazilian Grand Prix : Ferrari
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix : Ferrari
What do others think (or better still, can you remember the article where a proper expert wrote it up?)
Why do Malaysia & Japan not qualify for Grand Prix status? Singapore : Ferrari
Malaysian : Mercedes
Japanese Grand Prix : Mercedes
United States Grand Prix :Mercedes
Mexican Grand Prix : Mercedes
Brazilian Grand Prix : Ferrari
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix : Ferrari
What do others think (or better still, can you remember the article where a proper expert wrote it up?)
I'd not thought of that before, American not United Statesian (Singaporian? 
)Of the remaining races, I'm seeing Mercedes as the car holding the edge on Ferrari. Mostly by a couple of tenths on raw qualifying pace. Whichever Merc driver extracts that pace will have the edge in the race and therefore should be favourite for the title. Suzuka is the only place I'm really fancying Ferrari's chances. There are several factors that could swing the above predictions either way. This is my read of it:
Mercedes chassis/aero package has fantastic aero efficiency and mechanical grip. Rivalled only by Red Bull. Oh, and the small matter of a better donkey in the back. The aero efficiency is what is really allowing their power unit to shine.
Ferrari has more downforce pound for pound on medium to high downforce tracks but not as efficient as Merc. So even though on peak power, their donkey is on a par with the Merc, it isn't enough. Peak power means zilch in this formula anyway but I mention it as a guide. Merc have that bit more (hybrid) energy to deploy over a lap in qualifying and race trim. Shorter tracks and tracks with shorter straights don't limit the Ferrari donkey in this way. They also run into tyre trouble the minute they start taking downforce off from their optimum, in order to improve their straightline speed to compete with Merc. They tend to get stuck between a rock and a hard place in some tracks because of this and their competitiveness drops off.
A third and more dominant factor I'm finding it to be the minimum tyre pressures front and rear. On tracks where Pirelli are sure their tyres can comfortably handle the abuse, they drop it right down and keep the min pressures close between front and rear. On front limited tracks, they impose such high pressures that the front tyres might as well be balloons.
Tracks where min pressures front and rear are close, the Ferrari simply works as soon as its hits the track first thing in FP1. The Merc hates these pressures and I believe this is linked to the controversial suspension ban earlier this year. Races this year where front to rear pressures have been close, Ferrari have dominated. Okay, Russian GP was like this but did anybody expect a Ferrari 1-2 in qualifying there? Nope, it was a Mercedes track whichever way you sliced it. A title critical aspect of the tyre pressures is that Hamilton's side of the garage can't get his car working in these conditions, but Bottas can and does seem immune to it.
When the pressures have not been close, Ferrari tended to need the full weekend's practice sessions to get their car working well, to find that happy balance for qualifying and race trim performance for both drivers. But I have observed Ferrari looked to have lost that sting in race pace. People talk about Seb needing the rear to be planted, but boy there isn't another driver on the grid that uses the throttle to steer/manipulate the car as much as Kimi. On a more positive note, on past form, the remaining races should have min pressures that are not limiting Ferrari to the degree that it's pandering to the lowest common denominator. So, it's should be more or less a straight fight and therefore should come down to the other factors I have outlined above.
I'd still tip Hamilton to take it, but you never know and Ferrari/Vettel have been remarkably consistent even when their car wasn't working well.
Mercedes chassis/aero package has fantastic aero efficiency and mechanical grip. Rivalled only by Red Bull. Oh, and the small matter of a better donkey in the back. The aero efficiency is what is really allowing their power unit to shine.
Ferrari has more downforce pound for pound on medium to high downforce tracks but not as efficient as Merc. So even though on peak power, their donkey is on a par with the Merc, it isn't enough. Peak power means zilch in this formula anyway but I mention it as a guide. Merc have that bit more (hybrid) energy to deploy over a lap in qualifying and race trim. Shorter tracks and tracks with shorter straights don't limit the Ferrari donkey in this way. They also run into tyre trouble the minute they start taking downforce off from their optimum, in order to improve their straightline speed to compete with Merc. They tend to get stuck between a rock and a hard place in some tracks because of this and their competitiveness drops off.
A third and more dominant factor I'm finding it to be the minimum tyre pressures front and rear. On tracks where Pirelli are sure their tyres can comfortably handle the abuse, they drop it right down and keep the min pressures close between front and rear. On front limited tracks, they impose such high pressures that the front tyres might as well be balloons.
Tracks where min pressures front and rear are close, the Ferrari simply works as soon as its hits the track first thing in FP1. The Merc hates these pressures and I believe this is linked to the controversial suspension ban earlier this year. Races this year where front to rear pressures have been close, Ferrari have dominated. Okay, Russian GP was like this but did anybody expect a Ferrari 1-2 in qualifying there? Nope, it was a Mercedes track whichever way you sliced it. A title critical aspect of the tyre pressures is that Hamilton's side of the garage can't get his car working in these conditions, but Bottas can and does seem immune to it.
When the pressures have not been close, Ferrari tended to need the full weekend's practice sessions to get their car working well, to find that happy balance for qualifying and race trim performance for both drivers. But I have observed Ferrari looked to have lost that sting in race pace. People talk about Seb needing the rear to be planted, but boy there isn't another driver on the grid that uses the throttle to steer/manipulate the car as much as Kimi. On a more positive note, on past form, the remaining races should have min pressures that are not limiting Ferrari to the degree that it's pandering to the lowest common denominator. So, it's should be more or less a straight fight and therefore should come down to the other factors I have outlined above.
I'd still tip Hamilton to take it, but you never know and Ferrari/Vettel have been remarkably consistent even when their car wasn't working well.
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