rosberg bet to win championship ?
Discussion
I think more is made out of the engine issues than may be the case. Ricciardo had the same last year and it didn't affect him as much as expected.
On present form Rosberg is already beaten unless he gets his head together. In the last four races Verstappen has comprehensively outscored Rosberg.
And if there was any bias in Mercedes (which I doubt) the images of Hamilton crowdsurfing at Silverstone will have underlined to the marketing bosses in Stuttgart just what a huge global superstar they have in Hamilton. Rosberg is simply nowhere near in that respect and Merc's main concern above all else is to sell road cars.
On present form Rosberg is already beaten unless he gets his head together. In the last four races Verstappen has comprehensively outscored Rosberg.
And if there was any bias in Mercedes (which I doubt) the images of Hamilton crowdsurfing at Silverstone will have underlined to the marketing bosses in Stuttgart just what a huge global superstar they have in Hamilton. Rosberg is simply nowhere near in that respect and Merc's main concern above all else is to sell road cars.
It's not as simple as replacing the engine. There are 5 parts:
ICE - what most will consider to be 'the engine'.
MGU-K (motor generator unit - kinetic) - This is what we used to call KERS. Harvests energy from flywheel.
Turbo - spinny thing
MGU-H (motor generator unit - heat) - pay odd the hybrid system, is just a motor connected to the shaft of the turbo.
Control Electronics - basically the ERS ECU.
Lewis has currently used his 3rd ICE and MGU-K. 5th turbo and MGU-H and I think 2nd or 3rd electronics.
10 place penalty when a 6th ICE is used, 5 place penalty for each of the others, so he's going to have to take a 6th turbo and MGU-H = 10 places.
He said he expects to have to take penalties at 2 races. What he'll want to do is take them at good tracks where he can overtake. Spa for example, maybe Monza (if the Merc can out drag the rest- not a foregone conclusion).
They might try and make the ICE last or they may decide to go with a fresh one if they can make up the spots.
I think they can still double up as teams did last year, so take 2 turbo and 2 MGU-H at a single race, 20 spots dropped but may be better to do that at a track you can overtake on than take 10 and then another 10 at a difficult track.
11 races left, he can do a couple on the current components, so I think at a minimum he needs 2 turbo and MGU-H. Maybe an ICE too.
ICE - what most will consider to be 'the engine'.
MGU-K (motor generator unit - kinetic) - This is what we used to call KERS. Harvests energy from flywheel.
Turbo - spinny thing
MGU-H (motor generator unit - heat) - pay odd the hybrid system, is just a motor connected to the shaft of the turbo.
Control Electronics - basically the ERS ECU.
Lewis has currently used his 3rd ICE and MGU-K. 5th turbo and MGU-H and I think 2nd or 3rd electronics.
10 place penalty when a 6th ICE is used, 5 place penalty for each of the others, so he's going to have to take a 6th turbo and MGU-H = 10 places.
He said he expects to have to take penalties at 2 races. What he'll want to do is take them at good tracks where he can overtake. Spa for example, maybe Monza (if the Merc can out drag the rest- not a foregone conclusion).
They might try and make the ICE last or they may decide to go with a fresh one if they can make up the spots.
I think they can still double up as teams did last year, so take 2 turbo and 2 MGU-H at a single race, 20 spots dropped but may be better to do that at a track you can overtake on than take 10 and then another 10 at a difficult track.
11 races left, he can do a couple on the current components, so I think at a minimum he needs 2 turbo and MGU-H. Maybe an ICE too.
Crafty_ said:
It's not as simple as replacing the engine. There are 5 parts:
ICE - what most will consider to be 'the engine'.
MGU-K (motor generator unit - kinetic) - This is what we used to call KERS. Harvests energy from flywheel.
Turbo - spinny thing
MGU-H (motor generator unit - heat) - pay odd the hybrid system, is just a motor connected to the shaft of the turbo.
Control Electronics - basically the ERS ECU.
Lewis has currently used his 3rd ICE and MGU-K. 5th turbo and MGU-H and I think 2nd or 3rd electronics.
10 place penalty when a 6th ICE is used, 5 place penalty for each of the others, so he's going to have to take a 6th turbo and MGU-H = 10 places.
He said he expects to have to take penalties at 2 races. What he'll want to do is take them at good tracks where he can overtake. Spa for example, maybe Monza (if the Merc can out drag the rest- not a foregone conclusion).
They might try and make the ICE last or they may decide to go with a fresh one if they can make up the spots.
I think they can still double up as teams did last year, so take 2 turbo and 2 MGU-H at a single race, 20 spots dropped but may be better to do that at a track you can overtake on than take 10 and then another 10 at a difficult track.
11 races left, he can do a couple on the current components, so I think at a minimum he needs 2 turbo and MGU-H. Maybe an ICE too.
great info sir ICE - what most will consider to be 'the engine'.
MGU-K (motor generator unit - kinetic) - This is what we used to call KERS. Harvests energy from flywheel.
Turbo - spinny thing
MGU-H (motor generator unit - heat) - pay odd the hybrid system, is just a motor connected to the shaft of the turbo.
Control Electronics - basically the ERS ECU.
Lewis has currently used his 3rd ICE and MGU-K. 5th turbo and MGU-H and I think 2nd or 3rd electronics.
10 place penalty when a 6th ICE is used, 5 place penalty for each of the others, so he's going to have to take a 6th turbo and MGU-H = 10 places.
He said he expects to have to take penalties at 2 races. What he'll want to do is take them at good tracks where he can overtake. Spa for example, maybe Monza (if the Merc can out drag the rest- not a foregone conclusion).
They might try and make the ICE last or they may decide to go with a fresh one if they can make up the spots.
I think they can still double up as teams did last year, so take 2 turbo and 2 MGU-H at a single race, 20 spots dropped but may be better to do that at a track you can overtake on than take 10 and then another 10 at a difficult track.
11 races left, he can do a couple on the current components, so I think at a minimum he needs 2 turbo and MGU-H. Maybe an ICE too.
I think he'd be better off taking two brand new PUs and starting at the back/pitlane in suitable races, avoid the 1st corner melee and carve up through the field. Or he can elect to take these full PUs on tracks where Ferrari and/or RB are expected to be strong so he can guarantee Rosberg to not have a lonely race at the front and minimise the points he might lose to his team mate as he comes through the field. Personal feeling is, the penalty races won't give Rosberg as big an advantage as some are predicting.
I said this at the start of the season, but consistency won't win the WDC this year as it might have done in 2014 and 2015. You've got to go out and win races. That's the only way. This is partly because, Mercedes were pretty much unchallenged in the vast majority of the races in 2014 and 2015, so on your good day you only have to beat your team mate and on your bad day, you can look forward to 2nd or 3rd. Consistency can keep you in touch, you can play the percentage game. Not in 2016. If Rosberg is to actually win the WDC, he is going to have to raise his game, dig deep. If he manages to do it, he'll have deserved it. More deserved than the 2014 or 2015 titles. I always put WDCs earned when you have to fight other teams at a notch higher than WDCs earned while your team dominated the year and other teams didn't have a chance. IMHO.
I said this at the start of the season, but consistency won't win the WDC this year as it might have done in 2014 and 2015. You've got to go out and win races. That's the only way. This is partly because, Mercedes were pretty much unchallenged in the vast majority of the races in 2014 and 2015, so on your good day you only have to beat your team mate and on your bad day, you can look forward to 2nd or 3rd. Consistency can keep you in touch, you can play the percentage game. Not in 2016. If Rosberg is to actually win the WDC, he is going to have to raise his game, dig deep. If he manages to do it, he'll have deserved it. More deserved than the 2014 or 2015 titles. I always put WDCs earned when you have to fight other teams at a notch higher than WDCs earned while your team dominated the year and other teams didn't have a chance. IMHO.
lee_fr200 said:
Hamilton said on sky he's going to take a boat load and start at the very back
Makes sense; with the performance the Mercs have, the worst that's likely to happen is he ends up finishing about 4th or 5th (assuming he doesn't crash into a slower car on his way up the field of course); if they pick the track carefully he'll probably make it to second even starting from the back. williamp said:
how does Hamilton compare to the other drivers??
Wasn't there one race last year when Button qualified (say) 9th, had 15 grid penalties, but started the race 8th as other drivers had penalties too?
He's the worst off of all drivers. Wasn't there one race last year when Button qualified (say) 9th, had 15 grid penalties, but started the race 8th as other drivers had penalties too?
Go to the FIA site and look for the page for the last race, there is a section called event timing and information. Everything that happens over the weekend is there, all times from all sessions, reports of investigations and stewards verdicts along with scrutineeringredients reports etc. Part of this is a list of how many I'd reach bit the drivers have used. I'll find it later, on mobile at the moment.
From memory one of the ferraris is on the 5th of something, forget what.
I think it was spa last year that stewards handed out 160 odd grid penalties for component changers!
williamp said:
how does Hamilton compare to the other drivers??
This is the situation after Silverstone:| Car | Driver | ICE | TC | MGU-H | MGU-K | ES | CE |
| Mercedes | Lewis Hamilton | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Mercedes | Nico Rosberg | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Ferrari | Sebastian Vettel | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Ferrari | Kimi Räikkönen | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Williams Mercedes | Felipe Massa | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Williams Mercedes | Valtteri Bottas | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| RBR TAG Heuer | Daniel Ricciardo | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| RBR TAG Heuer | Max Verstappen | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Force India Mercedes | Nico Hülkenberg | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Force India Mercedes | Sergio Perez | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Renault | Kevin Magnussen | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Renault | Jolyon Palmer | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Toro Rosso Ferrari | Daniil Kvyat | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Toro Rosso Ferrari | Carlos Sainz | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Sauber Ferrari | Marcus Ericsson | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Sauber Ferrari | Felipe Nasr | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| McLaren Honda | Fernando Alonso | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| McLaren Honda | Jenson Button | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| MRT Mercedes | Pascal Wehrlein | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| MRT Mercedes | Rio Haryanto | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Haas Ferrari | Romain Grosjean | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Haas Ferrari | Esteban Gutierrez | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
It's not too bad, if you take the average of all components, McLaren drivers and Sainz are worse off. However, those other parts can still be used on a Friday. The parts that Hamilton lost were defective and can't be reused/reintroduced into the pool. It's unlikely that Rosberg will have the same failures/problems because they introduced the new fixed TC/MGU-H in Rosberg's PUs when it was time to introduce them. Alonso lost a whole PU in the first event with that crash.
Verstappen is on his last Control Electronics part.
ETA: ES=Energy Store (battery)
Edited by Dr Z on Thursday 14th July 14:34
Crafty_ said:
I think it was spa last year that stewards handed out 160 odd grid penalties for component changers!
Yes, of which 55 were button and 50 were alonso, taking multiple penalties each at once and starting at the back. Stacking the penalties is the way to go, especially somewhere like Monza where the extra mercedes power means the race may be salvageable.
kambites said:
lee_fr200 said:
Hamilton said on sky he's going to take a boat load and start at the very back
Makes sense; with the performance the Mercs have, the worst that's likely to happen is he ends up finishing about 4th or 5th (assuming he doesn't crash into a slower car on his way up the field of course); if they pick the track carefully he'll probably make it to second even starting from the back. Warmfuzzies said:
kambites said:
lee_fr200 said:
Hamilton said on sky he's going to take a boat load and start at the very back
Makes sense; with the performance the Mercs have, the worst that's likely to happen is he ends up finishing about 4th or 5th (assuming he doesn't crash into a slower car on his way up the field of course); if they pick the track carefully he'll probably make it to second even starting from the back. 
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