FAO Bahrain Betting Odds Watchers.
Discussion
Firstly TERMS and CONDITIONS APPLY ... Those who find these betting opportunity topics boring best to stay away.... 
Meantime for those that do find them interesting, here's a warning. Beware. Now that it appears to be a two horse race for both Pole and the Race, at least for the time being, some on-line bookies are only betting Each-Way places 1 and 2 for both events. Not the more usual 1-2-3. This before a wheel has turned in Bahrain. So watch out for that.
I had a few quid each way on Vettel for both the Malaysia race and qualifying @ 14-1 with places 1-2-3 for both. He placed 2nd in Q and 3rd in the race so both bets showed a worthwhile return. Looks like those more attractive opportunities are no longer available after only two events now.
I've done quite well on the first two events simply by using my judgement prior to any Free Practice or Qualifying. Hamilton was 2-1 against for the last race then but once his form was exposed during qualifying, he became less attractive at well skinny odds-on. He's now odds-on for both events in Bahrain even before a wheel has been turned!
For that and other reasons, this race I shall not have a serious bet until at least FP sessions have been run or maybe even Q1-2-3. Even then I may not have a serious bet unless I spot some value.
Finally, my most rewarding bets so far were on the number of classified finishers. It appears the cars are more reliable than many judges had expected. Who knew? ... Less than 50% classified ! .. Yeah ... right .... 
Meantime for those that do find them interesting, here's a warning. Beware. Now that it appears to be a two horse race for both Pole and the Race, at least for the time being, some on-line bookies are only betting Each-Way places 1 and 2 for both events. Not the more usual 1-2-3. This before a wheel has turned in Bahrain. So watch out for that.
I had a few quid each way on Vettel for both the Malaysia race and qualifying @ 14-1 with places 1-2-3 for both. He placed 2nd in Q and 3rd in the race so both bets showed a worthwhile return. Looks like those more attractive opportunities are no longer available after only two events now.
I've done quite well on the first two events simply by using my judgement prior to any Free Practice or Qualifying. Hamilton was 2-1 against for the last race then but once his form was exposed during qualifying, he became less attractive at well skinny odds-on. He's now odds-on for both events in Bahrain even before a wheel has been turned!
For that and other reasons, this race I shall not have a serious bet until at least FP sessions have been run or maybe even Q1-2-3. Even then I may not have a serious bet unless I spot some value.
Finally, my most rewarding bets so far were on the number of classified finishers. It appears the cars are more reliable than many judges had expected. Who knew? ...
Less than 50% classified ! .. Yeah ... right .... I'm not interested in betting in anything other than an academic sense - I never actually put any money down - but I always watch the the bookies as they're very good at assessing events in an entirely unsentimental way. Given that, I'm amazed they're offering the current odds. Yes, Mercedes are ahead, but *that* far ahead?
Wining car: Mercedes 2/7, Red Bull 8-1, Ferrari 12-1, Williams 17-1, McLaren 18-1, Force India 54-1
And the fact that you can't get evens on LH to win - mostly 5/6 or 11/10 versus 2-1 or 9-4 for NR, the next most likely - seems surprising as well.
Wining car: Mercedes 2/7, Red Bull 8-1, Ferrari 12-1, Williams 17-1, McLaren 18-1, Force India 54-1
And the fact that you can't get evens on LH to win - mostly 5/6 or 11/10 versus 2-1 or 9-4 for NR, the next most likely - seems surprising as well.
I usually put a few down on the WDC.
I did okay in 2011 and 2012 due to SV having a late surge but those odds never really arrived for 2013.
2014, I think, has offered some good opportunities for this.
It all depends on whether Nico or Lewis are the real deal (for 2014) in the Mercs...
I didn't go with Lewis or Sebastian (Vettel) so who knows, but I like to keep an eye on progress throughout the season and quite often will
cover off some of it.
Not big amounts though.
I will be watching FP1 - FP3 with interest.
I did okay in 2011 and 2012 due to SV having a late surge but those odds never really arrived for 2013.
2014, I think, has offered some good opportunities for this.
It all depends on whether Nico or Lewis are the real deal (for 2014) in the Mercs...
I didn't go with Lewis or Sebastian (Vettel) so who knows, but I like to keep an eye on progress throughout the season and quite often will
cover off some of it.
Not big amounts though.
I will be watching FP1 - FP3 with interest.
Following Qualifying the bookies make it a two horse race. Obviously understandable. Nothing to chose much between the odds available on the two Merc Jockeys.
At 11-10 ON Rosberg making him a slight favourite, with Hamilton at slightly better odds, but not much better, at 11-10 AGAINST.
For that reason I shall not take either of those skinny odds as you may as well spin a coin to decide who will win. Unless you want to back your particular favourite of the two.
So, I shall look elsewhere for more attractive odds. Will Button make a podium of simply obtain another top six finish ? Will Maldonado gets some points? Will Alonso register a very rare DNF ? No end of what wagers are available. How about a safety car being deployed ... Hmmm ... just maybe ..
You can also bet without the two Mercs ... best of the rest. really spoilt for choice but, what to chose ?
Think I'll do as I have before. Have a modest each way bet ( enhanced win plus a podium as bookies are only betting 1-2 places each way ) on Massa. My main bet will be on the number of classified finishers which as paid well before. So, if there are less than fifteen classified finishers, I've already done me dough ...
Following Qualifying, Bahrain is a race to watch with a couple of small side bets to add a touch more interest. Tomorrow's another day.
There again, what if the two Mercs drivers take each other out in the rush to lead ? Think I'll have a few quid on Bottas to lead at the end of the first lap... Big odds to do that so that's it for me.
At 11-10 ON Rosberg making him a slight favourite, with Hamilton at slightly better odds, but not much better, at 11-10 AGAINST.
For that reason I shall not take either of those skinny odds as you may as well spin a coin to decide who will win. Unless you want to back your particular favourite of the two.
So, I shall look elsewhere for more attractive odds. Will Button make a podium of simply obtain another top six finish ? Will Maldonado gets some points? Will Alonso register a very rare DNF ? No end of what wagers are available. How about a safety car being deployed ... Hmmm ... just maybe ..
You can also bet without the two Mercs ... best of the rest. really spoilt for choice but, what to chose ?Think I'll do as I have before. Have a modest each way bet ( enhanced win plus a podium as bookies are only betting 1-2 places each way ) on Massa. My main bet will be on the number of classified finishers which as paid well before. So, if there are less than fifteen classified finishers, I've already done me dough ...
Following Qualifying, Bahrain is a race to watch with a couple of small side bets to add a touch more interest. Tomorrow's another day.
There again, what if the two Mercs drivers take each other out in the rush to lead ? Think I'll have a few quid on Bottas to lead at the end of the first lap... Big odds to do that so that's it for me.
leglessAlex said:
What are the odds on Massa, Bottas and Riccardo for a podium? Could be worth a punt on one of them. Or even Vettel, wouldn't put it past him to come up through the field.
What are the odds you ask. In a word :~If you mean all three on the same podium together :~ HUGE! ...
You'd need to ask on-line for a quote as it's impossible to list odds for every possibility ~ there's billions.
If you mean odds for each individual on a podium, they are generally available around these odds :~
Massa ... 7-2 ( Win odds 60-1 )
Bottas ... 2-1 ( Win odds 28-1 )
Ricciardo .9-1 ( Win odds 125-1 )
Yes, nowhere near 1/5th the win odds as is normally the case. There's a huge difference compared to usual each way betting.
This is because the bookies and most punters think the two Mercs will fill places 1 and 2. Thus those podium odds actually become best of the rest. Third place. Even so, Sod's Law may have the final say if in the rush to Schumacher's ( that is the new name for turn 1 I believe ) some drivers take themselves and others out. With that in mind it's quite possible for the three podium spots to be filled by cars other than the Mercs. Slim chance but hey, it's racing and almost anything can happen ... and often does. Good eh.
I'm still liking the new cars and even their exhaust sounds.
Sneaky man, quoted before I edited! 
In fairness I should have just looked myself, it was lazy to not bother. I think I might go for Ricciardo to get a podium, I think he has the pace and it would be foolish to bet against the two Mercedes cars not being there. Of course as you say John, anything can happen but it's unlikely.
So, I've got a few quid on either Ricciardo or Vettel for the last podium spot, and I don't think I'll risk anything else...
In fairness I should have just looked myself, it was lazy to not bother. I think I might go for Ricciardo to get a podium, I think he has the pace and it would be foolish to bet against the two Mercedes cars not being there. Of course as you say John, anything can happen but it's unlikely.
So, I've got a few quid on either Ricciardo or Vettel for the last podium spot, and I don't think I'll risk anything else...
leglessAlex said:
Sneaky man, quoted before I edited!
In fairness I should have just looked myself, it was lazy to not bother. I think I might go for Ricciardo to get a podium, I think he has the pace and it would be foolish to bet against the two Mercedes cars not being there. Of course as you say John, anything can happen but it's unlikely.
So, I've got a few quid on either Ricciardo or Vettel for the last podium spot, and I don't think I'll risk anything else...
Still early days and if one of the Mercs DNFs ... both RBs could make a podium based on Ricciardo's and Vettel's car/driver form so far in the two previous races. Thus both your selections could pay.In fairness I should have just looked myself, it was lazy to not bother. I think I might go for Ricciardo to get a podium, I think he has the pace and it would be foolish to bet against the two Mercedes cars not being there. Of course as you say John, anything can happen but it's unlikely.
So, I've got a few quid on either Ricciardo or Vettel for the last podium spot, and I don't think I'll risk anything else...
Daz68 said:
Well I have gone for a Button each way bet at 80-1. Fingers crossed.
Good luck Daz. Any Brit success is OK by me. Unusually, not had a serious bet on anybody as the two Mercs are so dominant thus unattractive prices. Have had two smallish bets for Grosjean and Maldonado to score points. Both @ 4-1 to reach points individually. Had fiver on both to score points @ 20-1 ~ my largest bet ... Nothing much else appeals but, will keep an eye on "in running" opportunities once the race has started. You never know ... maybe something will appeal.I shall watch and enjoy the race learning a bit more about reliability and form for the next race.
No such thing as a certainty. Will know more in about half an hour. Not a lot, but some ... Gassing Station | Formula 1 | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff