Gary Anderson predicts F1's pecking order

[woof]

A nice breakdown of performance by Gary Anderson


FASTEST TIMES IN BAHRAIN (AS PERCENTAGE)

Team-Engine Deficit Tyre
1. Mercedes Soft
2. McLaren-Mercedes +1.795% Soft*
3. Force India-Mercedes +3.390% Soft
4. Ferrari +3.466% Soft
5. Williams-Mercedes +4.055% Soft
6. Sauber-Ferrari +4.178% Soft
7. Lotus-Renault +5.815% Soft
8. Toro Rosso-Renault +6.101% Soft
9. Red Bull-Renault +6.597% Medium
10. Caterham-Renault +7.045% Soft
11. Marussia-Ferrari +9.892% Winter medium

• As Kevin Magnussen's fastest McLaren time was set on supersoft rubber, Jenson Button's final-day lap on softs, just 0.057s slower, has been used. This was effectively a faster lap as it was on slower rubber.

Last year, the average lap-time performance step between each compound of tyre was around 0.4 seconds. I will use that figure rather than the specific differences from Bahrain, which did vary from team to team.

So taking the above, and equalising for the different tyre compounds that we actually know about, we now have:

Team-Engine Deficit
1. Mercedes
2. McLaren-Mercedes +1.795%
3. Force India-Mercedes +3.390%
4. Ferrari +3.466%
5. Williams-Mercedes +4.055%
6. Sauber-Ferrari +4.606%
7. Lotus-Renault +5.815%
8. Toro Rosso-Renault +6.101%
9. Red Bull-Renault +6.597%
Qualifying time cut off. +7.000%
10. Caterham-Renault +7.045%
11. Marussia-Ferrari +9.892%

[London424]

Obviously with the proviso that fuel levels and how hard each team was actually going for it aren't know.

[geeks]

Without reading the full article i am unable to pick it apart fully but (and whilst Gary is a bright bloke) we have no idea of engine modes, if other teams conducted qualy simulations, if anyone had development packages fitted or not in terms of aero, how much fuel each team used, how hard each driver leant on their respective car, the list goes on, whilst this sort of thing is great for generating headlines and gives an exceptionally rough and i do mean rough idea of a pecking order it is as effective proverbially pissing into the wind.

[Justaredbadge]

Also, weren't Mercedes the only team to run a qualifying simulation on track?

[woof]

Justaredbadge said:

Also, weren't Mercedes the only team to run a qualifying simulation on track?

I dont think anyone has actually run at 100% yet

[Derek Smith]

Thanks for the Anderson quote.

Is anyone else feeling a bit more positive about this season?

The new formula doesn't inspire me and I doubt it ever will, but there's some potential for exciting racing.

[P-Jay]

Yep, I'm really looking forward to it, yes some will moan about the noise (not that it's actually much of a factor for TV viewers) some will moan because they dare used Turbo 6s and not N/a 12s 10s or 8s (they're usually the same people who get all dew eyed about the 'mad turbo days' some will moan because they might not be as quick as last year (if you couldn't see the lap times, not a single viewer could tell) plus any number of other things they think are important - but for me the most important thing is it's a return to prototype racing, new cars, new engines and new everything in between, the deck get reshuffled and may the best team win!

[John D.]

Derek Smith said:

Thanks for the Anderson quote.

Is anyone else feeling a bit more positive about this season?

The new formula doesn't inspire me and I doubt it ever will, but there's some potential for exciting racing.

Yep. Looking forward to seeing the drivers controlling the increase in torque and the effect on tyre life too. First few races should be interesting while they get to grips with it.

[Jasandjules]

I am mainly looking forward to it because I am hopeful that the rule changes will mix things up a bit.

[davepoth]

I'm hoping for a significant increase in engine explosions. They're always exciting.

Seriously though, reliability will be a big concern this year. If the Ferrari engine is reliable, I can see Marussia scooping up a few points in the first half of the season as they pick their way around the detritus of the Renault cars.

[anonymous-user]

Let's remember that just a few weeks ago Anderson stated that Red Bull were still the team to beat.

What's in this latest prediction is no more than most of us would predict.

[tobinen]

Bet365 offering evens on Mercedes for the constructors' championship

HAM 5/2
ROS 6/1

for WDC

I fancy ROS eachway

[Blib]

P-Jay said:

Yep, I'm really looking forward to it, yes some will moan about the noise (not that it's actually much of a factor for TV viewers) some will moan because they dare used Turbo 6s and not N/a 12s 10s or 8s (they're usually the same people who get all dew eyed about the 'mad turbo days' some will moan because they might not be as quick as last year (if you couldn't see the lap times, not a single viewer could tell) plus any number of other things they think are important - but for me the most important thing is it's a return to prototype racing, new cars, new engines and new everything in between, the deck get reshuffled and may the best team win!

I do wish the teams were allowed enough fuel to race at full chat for the whole race. Rather than worrying about fuel consumption.

[iwantagta]

geeks said:

Without reading the full article i am unable to pick it apart fully but (and whilst Gary is a bright bloke) we have no idea of engine modes, if other teams conducted qualy simulations, if anyone had development packages fitted or not in terms of aero, how much fuel each team used, how hard each driver leant on their respective car, the list goes on, whilst this sort of thing is great for generating headlines and gives an exceptionally rough and i do mean rough idea of a pecking order it is as effective proverbially pissing into the wind.

& lest we forget he did predict big think for Mclaren last year....

[rubystone]

Anderson told me his money is on Rosberg. And so did Mo Hamilton. I reckon they have a point.

[RealSquirrels]

tobinen said:

I fancy ROS eachway

is it cos he looks like britney spears?

[RealSquirrels]

i think ham vs ros is certainly going to be an interesting battle. but fuel consumption, and tyre management, was an issue last year. and hamilton still beat rosberg. With the opportunity to have more say in the car this year, I don't see any reason why hamilton won't be able to do the same again (I think he's already said that he thinks this year's car suits him better).

[RogerVulva]

RealSquirrels said:

tobinen said:

I fancy ROS eachway

is it cos he looks like britney spears?

Genuine LOL moment

[MGJohn]

rubystone said:

Anderson told me his money is on Rosberg. And so did Mo Hamilton. I reckon they have a point.

In the past I have mentioned that ROS is both overlooked and under rated by many judges. Looks like a change of mindset by some now. So some "professionals" see things that way. I'm in good company...

There's some good value about for anyone who fancies backing some of them and is prepared to put their money where their mouth is. Checking three or four on-line bookies odds recently shows a wide difference of opinions and prices for the top drivers as well as others. That's good so shop around. As always.

Be lucky. We all could do with Lady Luck on our side occasionally...

[MGJohn]

Blib said:

I do wish the teams were allowed enough fuel to race at full chat for the whole race. Rather than worrying about fuel consumption.

That would not provide all the ideals to what you wish for.

More fuel = slower cars. There is a good reason why in the past, many top drivers failed to finish as their cars ran out of fuel. Whatever the parameters, the teams will always refine their judgement right down to the fine lines because it can be the difference between winning and being an 'also ran'. Over do that fine line of judgement with fuel or anything and DNFs often result.