Ukraine war: effect on climate?

Ukraine war: effect on climate?

Author
Discussion

Iamnotkloot

Original Poster:

1,589 posts

154 months

Wednesday 13th July 2022
quotequote all
So not just the Ukraine, but I guess any prolonged conflict with heavy munitions.
When Mount Tambora erupted in 1815, it put 10 billion tonnes of rock dust into the atmosphere, leading to the ‘year without summer’ with global temperatures down 0.4 to 0.7 degrees C.
So, when would a war start to impact the climate. Obviously not talking about a nuclear war but regular munitions. E.g. the below link is a recent HMARS strike on a Russian ammo dump.
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/15465984541...
So, how many of these would we need to be equivalent to a large volcanic eruption?

Simpo Two

87,066 posts

272 months

Wednesday 13th July 2022
quotequote all
I would think that in the global picture, it's non-existent.

Was there a rise in global temperature after the world wars? Don't recall seeing anything about it.

LimaDelta

6,950 posts

225 months

Wednesday 13th July 2022
quotequote all
Iamnotkloot said:
So not just the Ukraine, but I guess any prolonged conflict with heavy munitions.
When Mount Tambora erupted in 1815, it put 10 billion tonnes of rock dust into the atmosphere, leading to the ‘year without summer’ with global temperatures down 0.4 to 0.7 degrees C.
So, when would a war start to impact the climate. Obviously not talking about a nuclear war but regular munitions. E.g. the below link is a recent HMARS strike on a Russian ammo dump.
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/15465984541...
So, how many of these would we need to be equivalent to a large volcanic eruption?
Given Tambora was 10 times bigger than Krakatoa, which itself was equivalent of 200MT (13,000 Hiroshimas), I think we are going to need more than a couple of HIMARS before we can cool down this heatwave.

For comparison, the total yield of all nuclear tests is around 500MT, vs your volcano of circa 2000MT.

But hey, aim high, we can get there if we put our minds to it!

Johnnytheboy

24,498 posts

193 months

Wednesday 13th July 2022
quotequote all
Probably counteracted by the reduced fossil fuel use due to high prices.

Iamnotkloot

Original Poster:

1,589 posts

154 months

Wednesday 13th July 2022
quotequote all
LimaDelta said:
Iamnotkloot said:
So not just the Ukraine, but I guess any prolonged conflict with heavy munitions.
When Mount Tambora erupted in 1815, it put 10 billion tonnes of rock dust into the atmosphere, leading to the ‘year without summer’ with global temperatures down 0.4 to 0.7 degrees C.
So, when would a war start to impact the climate. Obviously not talking about a nuclear war but regular munitions. E.g. the below link is a recent HMARS strike on a Russian ammo dump.
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/15465984541...
So, how many of these would we need to be equivalent to a large volcanic eruption?
Given Tambora was 10 times bigger than Krakatoa, which itself was equivalent of 200MT (13,000 Hiroshimas), I think we are going to need more than a couple of HIMARS before we can cool down this heatwave.

For comparison, the total yield of all nuclear tests is around 500MT, vs your volcano of circa 2000MT.

But hey, aim high, we can get there if we put our minds to it!
Yep, that puts it into context then (2000MT volcano vs all the worlds nuke tests 500MT) - guess we just won't get there. <sad face>

LimaDelta

6,950 posts

225 months

Wednesday 13th July 2022
quotequote all
Iamnotkloot said:
LimaDelta said:
Iamnotkloot said:
So not just the Ukraine, but I guess any prolonged conflict with heavy munitions.
When Mount Tambora erupted in 1815, it put 10 billion tonnes of rock dust into the atmosphere, leading to the ‘year without summer’ with global temperatures down 0.4 to 0.7 degrees C.
So, when would a war start to impact the climate. Obviously not talking about a nuclear war but regular munitions. E.g. the below link is a recent HMARS strike on a Russian ammo dump.
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/15465984541...
So, how many of these would we need to be equivalent to a large volcanic eruption?
Given Tambora was 10 times bigger than Krakatoa, which itself was equivalent of 200MT (13,000 Hiroshimas), I think we are going to need more than a couple of HIMARS before we can cool down this heatwave.

For comparison, the total yield of all nuclear tests is around 500MT, vs your volcano of circa 2000MT.

But hey, aim high, we can get there if we put our minds to it!
Yep, that puts it into context then (2000MT volcano vs all the worlds nuke tests 500MT) - guess we just won't get there. <sad face>
Total yield of the whole world's nuclear arsenal around 3000MT*, so if we all club together...

* very rough fag-packet calculation based on many assumptions

Lotus 50

1,014 posts

172 months

Wednesday 13th July 2022
quotequote all
Simpo Two said:
I would think that in the global picture, it's non-existent.

Was there a rise in global temperature after the world wars? Don't recall seeing anything about it.
The dust wouldn't cause a rise in temp it would decrease it - IF there was enough...

Simpo Two

87,066 posts

272 months

Wednesday 13th July 2022
quotequote all
Lotus 50 said:
Simpo Two said:
I would think that in the global picture, it's non-existent.

Was there a rise in global temperature after the world wars? Don't recall seeing anything about it.
The dust wouldn't cause a rise in temp it would decrease it - IF there was enough...
I was thinking of the CO2 from all the explosions... nuts