Covid19 science

[Steve Campbell]

There are plenty of threads around the hype / news etc but what about the science behind it ?

I found this particularly interesting & a simple explanation of what is happening. I shared it with my 16 year old GCSE year son whilst explaining why hand washing is important ??
http://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

This site is also fascinating as things develop
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.htm...

[llewop]

This is next door to where I work, doing some almost surreal work to try to help those that are working to understand and beat coved-19

https://www.diamond.ac.uk/covid-19.html

[GroundZero]

Watched that video a few days ago Steve, it does show nicely the numbers side of things.
The inflexion point being a good marker.
Therefore the key is to look at the daily reportings to compare today's value with yesterday. When these are the same number for a few days then it would appear the inflexion point is reached and hopefully that should be the peak.


On another aspect of the science, I watched a video about how the Chinese live animal markets are a hot bed for new virus creation.
Its no randomness that such viruses originate in China. In their culture they have a history of zero animal welfare and keeping animals in cages until a customer comes along to have one killed and butchered.

In such markets they stack wild animals in cages on top of each other, wild animals such as bats, ferrets, rats, etc. Together with animals that would be considered 'live stock' such as hens.
All these animals that can carry disease stacked on top of each other in conditions that are ripe for not only creating viruses but also passing them around from animal to animal.

If there was ever a grand experiment that could be done to see what super-virus could be created out of a soup of pre-existing conditions, then the Chinese live animal markets is perfect for this.
Over time virus spread back and forth until they surely mutate in to something that is spread within humans.

I read that the communist government banned live animal markets during their outbreak, but would not be surprised in the slightest if they allowed it to become the norm again once the focus is off them.

[Steve Campbell]

Imperial College Paper (16th March) that is informing Govt strategies.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/...

[rfisher]

Here's what we are all up against (globally).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC43693...

If you are not 'scientific' as such, just read the conclusion.

If you are, read the whole thing.

I can see a mass cull of bats happening in China, and a worldwide ban on keeping bats or having contact with them in the future.

Other animal vectors may need to be strictly regulated.

[andy_s]

2007 paper on potential COVID pandemic - “The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.”

https://cmr.asm.org/content/cmr/20/4/660.full.pdf?...

2011 govt. paper on 'UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy' outlining the general approach[es].

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

[Peter3442]

I was trying to understand the progres of the epidemin by looking at data for confirmed cases and deaths from different countries. It's hard to make sense of it as the ratios of confirmed cases to deaths are totally inconsistent. This may be due to different levels of effort in indentifying confirmed cases, completely different approaches to attributing cause of death or something else.

As examples of countries where we might expect similar patterns:
Spain: 25,000 cases, 1,400 deaths
Germany: 22,000 cases, 77 deaths
France: 12,600 cases, 450 deaths
UK: 4,100 cases, 180 deaths

The UK and France are not inconsistent, but Germany?

[Beati Dogu]

From what I understand, Germany has found that the median age for contracting it is 47. In Italy this is 63.

The size of the elderly population in Italy is mentioned a lot in the news, but Germany is close behind them in 3rd place. First place is Japan.

[andy_s]

More on the ongoing French trials of Hydroxychloroquine:



https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/12413546...

[Peter3442]

It's possible the German health system (about which I know nothing) is diagnosing every (or even more than every) case. That would roughly fit with a death rate around 1% and a 10 day doubling of the number of infected persons. Certainly, with the stay at home and see what happens for a few days method of most countries, the milder cases are never confirmed and don't enter the official records.

[Simpo Two]

For anyone who like a bit of science and immunology, this is watchable and informative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY&fb...

[GroundZero]

Peter3442 said:

It's possible the German health system (about which I know nothing) is diagnosing every (or even more than every) case. That would roughly fit with a death rate around 1% and a 10 day doubling of the number of infected persons. Certainly, with the stay at home and see what happens for a few days method of most countries, the milder cases are never confirmed and don't enter the official records.

Deaths lags infection rate by about 1 to 1.5 weeks.

So when you look at the death rate, this should be based up on what the number of infections were just over a week ago.
That will give the correct percentage of deaths per number of infections.

[Peter3442]

Groundzero - I had accounted for the time lag between infection and death.

[GroundZero]

No problem Peter, just thought it worth reiterating.

Website tracker shows the USA to be in a not too good a state..
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


The virus itself is coated with a layer of fat, which is why washing hands is very effective. The soap quickly breaks the fat layer down exposing the virus inner core which can not survive and also can not settle within the body.

Makes me wonder if there could be a simple mask that could be made that filters breathing air through a soapy barrier. Won't protect the eyes of course but could bring the virus spread rate well down below 1.0.

[Armchair Expert]

Our government has advised us that there is little point in wearing masks.

However surely any mask is better then no mask?

Even if a mask is 50% effective that must substantially reduce your chances of getting the virus which isn't really airborne?

[Peter3442]

A round numbers calculation:

About 500 deaths to date
Death rate following infection of 1/100
Time infection to death about 4 weeks
Therefore, there were about 50,000 people infected 4 weeks ago

Assume the number infected doubles in a week, then we have close to one million infected. And we should expect a few thousand deaths over the next weeks that we can probably do little to prevent.

I know all the numbers are nothing like precise and I will not defend them or argue the particular values. However, they give an idea of what we are up against and the importance of trying to do this sort of calculation in a more accurate way in order to decide on policy.

[Rosscow]

[redacted]

[llewop]

[redacted]

[996Type]

Also anyone with a beard, they effectively render a mask useless. Full face masks are usually advised.

[Simpo Two]

Peter3442 said:

Death rate following infection of 1/100

But there are many cases unreported, or untested, and some people can have it with few or different symptoms. So I think the actual ratio is much lower.