Which will launch first?
Discussion
It seems that 2020 may be a year when lots of firsts happen. Or not.
Does anyone feel like making predictions, so we can look back next year and laugh at our naivety?
I should probably go first. Edit: I realised once I started that my natural pessimism has meant there I haven't put as much in 2020 as I first though, but my guessed order would be:
Does anyone feel like making predictions, so we can look back next year and laugh at our naivety?
I should probably go first. Edit: I realised once I started that my natural pessimism has meant there I haven't put as much in 2020 as I first though, but my guessed order would be:
- Starliner First Crewed Flight: Q2 2020
- Crew Dragon First Crewed Flight: Cancelled after Starliner mission
- Long March 8 First Flight: Q3 2020
- Omega Upper Stage Test: Q3 2020
- Ariane 6 First Launch: Q4 2020
- Starship First Test Hop: Q1 2021
- SLS First Launch: Q2 2021
- Starship First Orbital Attempt: Q1 2022
- Vulcan First Launch: H2 2023
Eric Mc said:
Why are you suggesting manned Dragon will be cancelled?
Pessimism. I see NASA as gung ho about getting the Starliner Crewed mission done (press conference while it was still up there with the astronauts saying "eh, we'd have sorted it"; ASAP annual report states a two month deadline for the anomaly review, indicating they have decided already the timeline to flight is; lots of tweets from Bridenstine about Starliner, including a weird one that it was being transported "through 6 U.S. states, all of which contributed to the build, test and first flight"). I get the impression (based in no small part on the number of Bridenstine's tweets boosting up Starliner compared with the paucity of tweets he made for the Dragon DM-1) that Boeing needs some good PR and Nasa are pressured to provide it. So they will do everything they can to get Starliner CFT before Dragon DM-2.
When management decide on timelines and readiness it's usually not a good thing.
So worst case, they launch Starliner with astronauts on board. The computer goes nuts again and the astronauts can't override it, resulting in loss of crew. America gives up crewed spaceflight forever.
Best case, Starliner launches, docks and lands without killing anyone or destroying the ISS. So NASA, under pressure to find budget for SLS, decide "ah, we have one capsule, that'll do" and cancel the Crew Dragon contract.
SpaceX are much cheaper than ULA for the same role and generate a lot of public interest & support. Not just for them, but for the space industry in general. NASA are very PR conscious & any funny business would be extremely counter productive.
Even if NASA did cancel manned flights, it's not going to stop SpaceX from doing them. They will inevitably outgrow NASA anyway and if they can establish an early monopoly with their Starlink service, they will become a very wealthy company indeed. After just 3 Starlink launches, SpaceX already have the largest satellite fleet there has ever been.
Even if NASA did cancel manned flights, it's not going to stop SpaceX from doing them. They will inevitably outgrow NASA anyway and if they can establish an early monopoly with their Starlink service, they will become a very wealthy company indeed. After just 3 Starlink launches, SpaceX already have the largest satellite fleet there has ever been.
Edited by Beati Dogu on Monday 13th January 20:39
It'll be interesting to see how the new crewed vehicles develop. I guess I wouldn't be especially surprised to see an effort to push Boeing and give them a win.
It is promising though that the contracts are for both to be flying crews, which should hopefully avoid political favourites.
I'd been optimistic about starship and while I think they will eventually get it nailed, at the moment it's definitely looking like the timescales are going to be a lot longer than they were hoping for. Falcon is at least proving to give spacex regular profitable launches.
It is promising though that the contracts are for both to be flying crews, which should hopefully avoid political favourites.
I'd been optimistic about starship and while I think they will eventually get it nailed, at the moment it's definitely looking like the timescales are going to be a lot longer than they were hoping for. Falcon is at least proving to give spacex regular profitable launches.
Einion Yrth said:
So to summarise Flooble's position;
Worst case: Crew dragon doesn't fly
Best case: Crew dragon doesn't fly.
At the very least there are hints of a false dichotomy fallacy in play here, quite possibly it's just an absurd position.
Ha, yes I can see your point. My best case/worst case was actually in relation to the state of Crew Dragon not being allowed to fly, i.e. if it was not allowed to fly how that could have come to happen rather than an overall best/worst case scenario. Worst case: Crew dragon doesn't fly
Best case: Crew dragon doesn't fly.
At the very least there are hints of a false dichotomy fallacy in play here, quite possibly it's just an absurd position.
Clearly there's still a certain percentage chance that NASA isn't that political and will continue both programs. I am just pessimistic they will seek for a way to keep shovelling money at Boeing.
In regards to the moon
NASA
SLS/ Orion / Artemis
and years of experience
V
SpaceX
Big Falcon Starliner Heavy
with some ex Japanese drummer who is doing an online search for a wife to go to the moon on top of a rocket made of badly welded together steel.
I'm guessing NASA to get to the moon first., Go Boomers ! And when I say boomers I obviously mean left over Shuttle engines .....
NASA
SLS/ Orion / Artemis
and years of experience
V
SpaceX
Big Falcon Starliner Heavy
with some ex Japanese drummer who is doing an online search for a wife to go to the moon on top of a rocket made of badly welded together steel.
I'm guessing NASA to get to the moon first., Go Boomers ! And when I say boomers I obviously mean left over Shuttle engines .....
Gandahar said:
In regards to the moon
NASA
SLS/ Orion / Artemis
and years of experience
V
SpaceX
Big Falcon Starliner Heavy
with some ex Japanese drummer who is doing an online search for a wife to go to the moon on top of a rocket made of badly welded together steel.
I'm guessing NASA to get to the moon first., Go Boomers ! And when I say boomers I obviously mean left over Shuttle engines .....
I'm not so sure, SpaceX will be doing a lot of testing of Starship (has it been renamed again?) and when it comes to the moonshot they'll have it nailed down I reckon. Is the Japanese guy going on a Starship or a Crew Dragon, or are they developing something else for it? Also, as I understand it, he's just doing an orbit of the moon and not a landing. I don't know if SpaceX are planning a moon landing yet.NASA
SLS/ Orion / Artemis
and years of experience
V
SpaceX
Big Falcon Starliner Heavy
with some ex Japanese drummer who is doing an online search for a wife to go to the moon on top of a rocket made of badly welded together steel.
I'm guessing NASA to get to the moon first., Go Boomers ! And when I say boomers I obviously mean left over Shuttle engines .....
All that said, I think SpaceX will do a Lunar orbit mission before Orion.
To carry out a landing on the moon you need a lunar lander of some sort. As far as I am aware, SpaceX are not designing a lunar lander. All their talk is about actually landing the Starship directly onto the lunar surface. I think Musk is fixated with the science fiction image of a lunar landing as shown in 1950s movies -
None of that is going to be happening anytime soon as the best they can do in the short term is a lunar swing around and return.
None of that is going to be happening anytime soon as the best they can do in the short term is a lunar swing around and return.
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