coincidence. what are the chances of this happening?
Discussion
I'm not sure that this is the right place but seemed logical.
Please bare with me!
For a living I drive cars off car carriers. We drive them to various Compounds within a 1.5 radius. Some go direct to specific Compounds based on make. Others are put in numbered lanes as they are special orders.
Yesterday I was one of seventy drivers taking the cars off the vessel.
There were 1170 vehicles on the vessel.
All cars are loaded randomly.on four decks.
There were eight buse's carrying the drivers.
You have a vague idea as to what sort of make of car you will get but nothing is guaranteed at all. In fact you often don't know which deck you will pick a car from.
Only about 100 cars were "Laned up" out of the 1170 total.
During the 8 hours I was working I got three random cars "laned" for lane 46. No other cars were assigned that lane.
the three cars I got were Mercedes, don't remember the models.
I didn't specifically ask to work yesterday, I was asked to by the agency.
What are the odds on that happening?
I would like to know but my brain cannot compute those sorts of odds.
thanks in advance.
PS: I did buy a Lotto ticket las night but it didn't win!
Please bare with me!
For a living I drive cars off car carriers. We drive them to various Compounds within a 1.5 radius. Some go direct to specific Compounds based on make. Others are put in numbered lanes as they are special orders.
Yesterday I was one of seventy drivers taking the cars off the vessel.
There were 1170 vehicles on the vessel.
All cars are loaded randomly.on four decks.
There were eight buse's carrying the drivers.
You have a vague idea as to what sort of make of car you will get but nothing is guaranteed at all. In fact you often don't know which deck you will pick a car from.
Only about 100 cars were "Laned up" out of the 1170 total.
During the 8 hours I was working I got three random cars "laned" for lane 46. No other cars were assigned that lane.
the three cars I got were Mercedes, don't remember the models.
I didn't specifically ask to work yesterday, I was asked to by the agency.
What are the odds on that happening?
I would like to know but my brain cannot compute those sorts of odds.
thanks in advance.
PS: I did buy a Lotto ticket las night but it didn't win!
So out of the total of 1170 cars, and amongst all those you drove that day you got 3 particular vehicles which had in common that they all belonged in a special lane and were the only ones destined for that lane.
I guess you would need to know how many you drove in the day, and how many other drivers are working at the same time. Also the randomness of how they are chosen. Maybe your boss ear marked all 3 for you?
I guess you would need to know how many you drove in the day, and how many other drivers are working at the same time. Also the randomness of how they are chosen. Maybe your boss ear marked all 3 for you?
First link on Google says Mercedes sold about 6% of the cars in the UK last year, so let's go with that. 6% of 1170 is 70 cars.
Your chance of getting a Mercedes is 70/1170, unsurprisingly about 6%.
Your chance of getting two Mercedes in a row is 70/1170 * 69/1169, about 0.35%
Your chance of getting 3 Mercedes in a row is 70/1170 * 69/1169 * 68/1168, about 0.02%, or 1 in 5000
I think.
Big assumptions in there obviously!
edit - I'm talking nonsense, this is the chance of the FIRST 3 cars being Mercedes.
Your chance of getting a Mercedes is 70/1170, unsurprisingly about 6%.
Your chance of getting two Mercedes in a row is 70/1170 * 69/1169, about 0.35%
Your chance of getting 3 Mercedes in a row is 70/1170 * 69/1169 * 68/1168, about 0.02%, or 1 in 5000
I think.
Big assumptions in there obviously!
edit - I'm talking nonsense, this is the chance of the FIRST 3 cars being Mercedes.
OK here's my go:
Number of cars in the UK (2017): 37,500,000
Mercedes market share 2014-17: c. 6.7%
Based on these figures, of the 37.5M cars, 2,512,500 are Mercedes.
The probability that the next car you see is a Mercedes is 1 in 14.9, say 1 in 15, or 0.067.
The probability that the second car is also a Mercedes is 0.067 x 0.067 (we won't worry about the fact there's one less in the population!)
The probability that the third car is also a Mercedes is 0.067 x 0.067 x 0.067 = 0.0003 or 1 in 3,333.
As you can see this depends entirely on a random distribution; I suspect your sightings were very skewed by the selection that went on the ferry.
FWIW I once cut a pack of cards four times and got a different ace each time!
Number of cars in the UK (2017): 37,500,000
Mercedes market share 2014-17: c. 6.7%
Based on these figures, of the 37.5M cars, 2,512,500 are Mercedes.
The probability that the next car you see is a Mercedes is 1 in 14.9, say 1 in 15, or 0.067.
The probability that the second car is also a Mercedes is 0.067 x 0.067 (we won't worry about the fact there's one less in the population!)
The probability that the third car is also a Mercedes is 0.067 x 0.067 x 0.067 = 0.0003 or 1 in 3,333.
As you can see this depends entirely on a random distribution; I suspect your sightings were very skewed by the selection that went on the ferry.
FWIW I once cut a pack of cards four times and got a different ace each time!
OK, thanks for the replies. A bit more info.
There were a mixture of Vauxhalls/Masda/Volvo/Tesla's/Mercs. I don't know the exact split.
Each Bus of 8 drivers take off approx. 18 cars during the shift (or thereabouts)
The loading of the ship is "Random". The cars come from different compounds and are loaded as/when the come. They are not loaded on the bases of "Make", it's more a case of which cars arrive at the ship and are loaded in any order.
I didn't get the three cars consecutively, they were spread over the complete shift of 8 hours.
There is no way the Charge hands could have assigned these cars to me as there were different charge hands working on different decks who selected which bus went to which deck. The "46" cars were all on different decks. We were working 5 decks.
As to how the cars are chosen. It is completely random. We are bussed to where the next cars are to be discharged between the 5 decks. Usually unknown to the car drivers..
I'm just interested in the odds of me getting the only three cars of the same make out of 1170 going to the same "Lane". The only other cars that are "Laned" are Masda's and I didn't get one all day.
There were a mixture of Vauxhalls/Masda/Volvo/Tesla's/Mercs. I don't know the exact split.
Each Bus of 8 drivers take off approx. 18 cars during the shift (or thereabouts)
The loading of the ship is "Random". The cars come from different compounds and are loaded as/when the come. They are not loaded on the bases of "Make", it's more a case of which cars arrive at the ship and are loaded in any order.
I didn't get the three cars consecutively, they were spread over the complete shift of 8 hours.
There is no way the Charge hands could have assigned these cars to me as there were different charge hands working on different decks who selected which bus went to which deck. The "46" cars were all on different decks. We were working 5 decks.
As to how the cars are chosen. It is completely random. We are bussed to where the next cars are to be discharged between the 5 decks. Usually unknown to the car drivers..
I'm just interested in the odds of me getting the only three cars of the same make out of 1170 going to the same "Lane". The only other cars that are "Laned" are Masda's and I didn't get one all day.
Apophenia, seeing patterns were none exist, our brain continuously makes up rules to make sense of the work, some of these rules are nonsense.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia
To be honest, I thought I would get a more "reasoned" answer than some have posted. This being the "Intellectual" side of PH.
What is the simple answer/odds of me getting 3 cars out of 1170 that were randomly available to me over a period of time (8hours) where I had no actual choice of car but happened to get the only one's that were for lane 46?
What is the simple answer/odds of me getting 3 cars out of 1170 that were randomly available to me over a period of time (8hours) where I had no actual choice of car but happened to get the only one's that were for lane 46?
DWS said:
To be honest, I thought I would get a more "reasoned" answer than some have posted. This being the "Intellectual" side of PH.
What is the simple answer/odds of me getting 3 cars out of 1170 that were randomly available to me over a period of time (8hours) where I had no actual choice of car but happened to get the only one's that were for lane 46?
Mathematically, not enough information on the variables. How many brands, how many lanes etc. Could be worked from there. It should be noted that a special order Mercedes is probably more common than a special order Dacia though.What is the simple answer/odds of me getting 3 cars out of 1170 that were randomly available to me over a period of time (8hours) where I had no actual choice of car but happened to get the only one's that were for lane 46?
DWS said:
To be honest, I thought I would get a more "reasoned" answer than some have posted. This being the "Intellectual" side of PH.
What is the simple answer/odds of me getting 3 cars out of 1170 that were randomly available to me over a period of time (8hours) where I had no actual choice of car but happened to get the only one's that were for lane 46?
You didn't happen to notice how many other cars were parked in specific lanes at the end of the unloading operation by any chance? - that would help in calculating the odds.What is the simple answer/odds of me getting 3 cars out of 1170 that were randomly available to me over a period of time (8hours) where I had no actual choice of car but happened to get the only one's that were for lane 46?
What would really freak you out is if you knew that the first 9 hexadecimal characters of the MD5 checksum of the VIN plate number of the Mercs you drove were an exact match for your National Insurance number, and the remaining 23 characters of the hash were all zero. Because then you'd realise your concept of reality is just a simulation, and someone is having a laugh at your expense....
You *did* check the VIN numbers, didn't you?
Randlmarcus; 5 brands, not all going to the same place. 89 lanes for specific cars of mixed makes. Mazda/Mercs the rest to other compounds.
Simpo two; Agreed "46" might have been assigned to Mercs but I got the only three that were assigned to that lane that day.
Perhaps I asked the wrong question in the first place.
re-questioned: what is the probability of me getting the only three cars out off 1170 that were assigned the same lane, given the previously given parameters?
is any other info needed?
Simpo two; Agreed "46" might have been assigned to Mercs but I got the only three that were assigned to that lane that day.
Perhaps I asked the wrong question in the first place.
re-questioned: what is the probability of me getting the only three cars out off 1170 that were assigned the same lane, given the previously given parameters?
is any other info needed?
FunkyNige said:
First link on Google says Mercedes sold about 6% of the cars in the UK last year, so let's go with that. 6% of 1170 is 70 cars.
Your chance of getting a Mercedes is 70/1170, unsurprisingly about 6%.
Your chance of getting two Mercedes in a row is 70/1170 * 69/1169, about 0.35%
Your chance of getting 3 Mercedes in a row is 70/1170 * 69/1169 * 68/1168, about 0.02%, or 1 in 5000
I think.
Big assumptions in there obviously!
edit - I'm talking nonsense, this is the chance of the FIRST 3 cars being Mercedes.
You don't need to use the first factor, the Op did not want the chance of 3 Mercs, rather 3 same make cars. So the first car is a given.Your chance of getting a Mercedes is 70/1170, unsurprisingly about 6%.
Your chance of getting two Mercedes in a row is 70/1170 * 69/1169, about 0.35%
Your chance of getting 3 Mercedes in a row is 70/1170 * 69/1169 * 68/1168, about 0.02%, or 1 in 5000
I think.
Big assumptions in there obviously!
edit - I'm talking nonsense, this is the chance of the FIRST 3 cars being Mercedes.
DWS said:
Randlmarcus; 5 brands, not all going to the same place. 89 lanes for specific cars of mixed makes. Mazda/Mercs the rest to other compounds.
Simpo two; Agreed "46" might have been assigned to Mercs but I got the only three that were assigned to that lane that day.
Perhaps I asked the wrong question in the first place.
re-questioned: what is the probability of me getting the only three cars out off 1170 that were assigned the same lane, given the previously given parameters?
is any other info needed?
Lets look at some things we *can* work out. Assume that you're assigned a lane three times : Simpo two; Agreed "46" might have been assigned to Mercs but I got the only three that were assigned to that lane that day.
Perhaps I asked the wrong question in the first place.
re-questioned: what is the probability of me getting the only three cars out off 1170 that were assigned the same lane, given the previously given parameters?
is any other info needed?
What's the probability of it being #46 each time? That's one in 704969 (89 x 89 x 89)
What's the probability of it being the same lane each time? That's one in 7921 (89 x 89)
If you are assigned six lanes in a day, what's the odds of at least three consecutive ones being the same lane? I think that's one in 1,980 (89*89/4)
I'd suspect the lane assignment for drivers - and cars - is far from random. Cars will likely be grouped and loaded by manufacturer and lane may be allocated according to where on the ship the cars come from, and where they have to go to.
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