Effect of Brexit on UK Space Industry ?

Effect of Brexit on UK Space Industry ?

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Tempest_5

Original Poster:

604 posts

204 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
I can't help but think Brexit will have a bad effect on the UK space industry due to the fact that a lot of the European space industry is interlinked between countries resulting in our departure being messy.

I appreciate that ESA isn't the EU, and non EU states are members, but being separate from the EU will hinder a lot of work with the UK and some commercial customers may just go elsewhere as it is the simpler option. Geographic return will help with ESA work, but not some commercial work, of which we do a significant amount.
(For those not familiar with geographic return it is where you get a portion of ESA work proportional to what you pay into ESA.)

The space industry may seem a somewhat “unnecessary” industry to some but it’s not all abstract science projects. Even those bring hard cash into the British economy. Space is one of the areas in the UK where manufacturing is increasing and where we still lead in certain areas.

Anyway, off you go, am I worrying too much? discuss.

Beati Dogu

9,194 posts

146 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
If you want to worry about something, worry about how SpaceX is going to take the ESA's business.

I fail to see how Britain regaining independence would have any negative impact on this sector. We'll likely stay in ESA anyway, although I'd rather we were a bit more ambitious that that. Maybe do something with the Russians, Americans or Indians and actually do something useful.

It would be nice is we stopped pissing away taxpayer's money on the EU's "me too" satellite navigation vanity project, Galileo.

Tempest_5

Original Poster:

604 posts

204 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
I'm not so worried about ESA work, it's the commercial areas that concern me. Everyone thinks UK space is all about ESA work, it's not.

For Example, in Britain we produce the structures and payloads for the Eurostar geostationary communication satellites that currently make up a 1/4 to 1/3 the global market a year. That's 70 Eurostar E2000 or E3000 comm satellites built or in build since 1990. Final assembly & testing occur in France. Occasionally we assemble & test smaller comm satellites here as well. You never hear about this because it's not Buck Rogers enough and it would be un-British to brag about it. It's commercial and rarely sees any taxpayers money, though ESA do sometimes fund new technology. It's an area where we lead for now. I'm concerned we could lose that along with other commercial areas.

I do agree that Galileo is hideously over budget and it should never have got that way.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

261 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
ESA started in 1975 well before any EU.

And there cant be that many companies with the skills required to put those sats together.

Eric Mc

122,858 posts

272 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
ESA started in 1975 well before any EU.
I think you might find that the EU (in its original EEC format) is considerably older than 1975. The original European space programme was ELDO - the European Launcher Development Organisation - which was superseded by ESA, mainly because the British government proved an unreliable supporter of ELDO.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

261 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
RobDickinson said:
ESA started in 1975 well before any EU.
I think you might find that the EU (in its original EEC format) is considerably older than 1975. The original European space programme was ELDO - the European Launcher Development Organisation - which was superseded by ESA, mainly because the British government proved an unreliable supporter of ELDO.
Yes but the EU ( the bit Brexit is about) was formed in 1993.

We had, and will continue to have, other relationships with Europe regardless of brexit

Eric Mc

122,858 posts

272 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Yes but the EU ( the bit Brexit is about) was formed in 1993.

We had, and will continue to have, other relationships with Europe regardless of brexit
I'm sure we will. However, there is no doubt that not being a full EU member will throw up obstacles and hindrances that currently don't exist. These problems can be overcome in time - but at the moment they don't need to be.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

261 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
It wouldnt surprise me if the franco/german alliance tries making things as hard as possible out of spite but we'll have 2 years to negotiate exit..

But I think they will be too busy fighting their own fires within the collapsing wreck of the euro anyhow..

Simpo Two

87,097 posts

272 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
It wouldnt surprise me if the franco/german alliance tries making things as hard as possible out of spite...
The word 'spite' came into my head even before I read that. I don't think we'll leave, even if we vote for it. And if we did, then yes no doubt the EU would punish its errant schoolboy by putting him in detention.

Beati Dogu

9,194 posts

146 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
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I wouldn't want to associate with people that do things to me out of "spite". In fact I'd take a very dim view of that indeed.

I give the current EU regime 20 years max at the moment anyway, 5-10 if we leave. With the Euro ticking away like a time bomb, I think that's being generous.

Flooble

5,571 posts

107 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
Simpo Two said:
RobDickinson said:
It wouldnt surprise me if the franco/german alliance tries making things as hard as possible out of spite...
The word 'spite' came into my head even before I read that. I don't think we'll leave, even if we vote for it. And if we did, then yes no doubt the EU would punish its errant schoolboy by putting him in detention.
Given that De Gaulle turned down the British Application for entry several times I would say that the spite runs deep already. So whatever the UK Space Industry has achieved has already been in the face of a degree of antipathy (not least because in general Brits don't speak French or German and British engineers are even less inclined to be linguists. Still, mathematics is a universal language.)

But yes, if the UK does vote leave the voters and the country as a whole will be punished. George Osborne already has already set out our sentence should we dare to disobey him, at least the French and German leaders have been a little bit more polite and will wait until after the result before they announce our penalty.

Eric Mc

122,858 posts

272 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
Whatever about the REASONS, what will the EFFECT be - positive or negative?

Simpo Two

87,097 posts

272 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
Whatever about the REASONS, what will the EFFECT be - positive or negative?
Well if Europe gets arsey, and we can't make our own stuff, perhaps we can buddy up with the US?

Eric Mc

122,858 posts

272 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
I'm sure we already do.

I don't see the UK leaving the ESA anytime soon - no matter what happens with the referendum vote. You might as well ask about our position in NATO.

Flooble

5,571 posts

107 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
Whatever about the REASONS, what will the EFFECT be - positive or negative?
I think negative, because of the spite and hatred.

Eric Mc

122,858 posts

272 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
We just don't know. Was there spite and hatred for France when it pulled out of NATO?

Flooble

5,571 posts

107 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
Not sure that is comparable, was there underlying hatred prior to them joining NATO?

I still think that it will be harder to sell services into countries which already look at us a tad askance, should we have told them we don't want to be in their party either.

Eric Mc

122,858 posts

272 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
Flooble said:
Not sure that is comparable, was there underlying hatred prior to them joining NATO?

I still think that it will be harder to sell services into countries which already look at us a tad askance, should we have told them we don't want to be in their party either.
I'm not saying there won't be a change of attitude. How it affects the scientific community - which is fairly international in outlook anyway - we just don't know.

That is the big problem with the referendum - the consequences of either possible outcome are pretty much impossible to predict.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

261 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
The Crack Fox said:
It's the people. Maybe Brit Engineers would be enticed overseas if there's less work here.
But they wouldnt be allowed to work in Europe??! biggrin

USA would be a more likely place to relocate too

Flooble

5,571 posts

107 months

Friday 17th June 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
But they wouldnt be allowed to work in Europe??! biggrin

USA would be a more likely place to relocate too
ITAR would put the kibosh on that - Rockets count as munitions and that gets spread around to anything related, at least by the Americans.