Interesting view of the future
Discussion
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
By Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
www.DrBobGoldman.com
World Chairman-International Medical Commission
Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M
Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame
Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine
President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)
Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors
By Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
www.DrBobGoldman.com
World Chairman-International Medical Commission
Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M
Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame
Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine
President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)
Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors
"Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025."
Sorry, this aint gonna happen any time soon.
Sorry, this aint gonna happen any time soon.
Yes - many of the predictions have been made before but failed to turn up within the expected timeframe.
Cheap unlimited energy is one that keeps cropping up, originally it was expected that ubiquitous nuclear power would provide it but of course than never happened. Now some are expecting wind and solar to provide cheap power, but both have their issues especially regarding 24/7 reliability - even more so with the added burden of having to charge everyone's electric car as well as the existing ( and ever increasing ) load.
Cheap unlimited energy is one that keeps cropping up, originally it was expected that ubiquitous nuclear power would provide it but of course than never happened. Now some are expecting wind and solar to provide cheap power, but both have their issues especially regarding 24/7 reliability - even more so with the added burden of having to charge everyone's electric car as well as the existing ( and ever increasing ) load.
I stopped reading quite early on, because presenting that opinion as fact is utter b
ks.
Air Bnb is not the biggest hotel company in the world by any realistic measure I can think of. Fully autonomous cars are categorically not 2 years away. Google et all can't even get them to work in a controlled environment yet.
ks.Air Bnb is not the biggest hotel company in the world by any realistic measure I can think of. Fully autonomous cars are categorically not 2 years away. Google et all can't even get them to work in a controlled environment yet.
The ability for technolgy to do something, and that something actually happening, still less becoming mainstream, are two different things. Where is my washing up robot? Where is my car-o-plane? Where is my Mars base? Medical advances like cloning are killed of by moralists. Other advances like GM are killed off by ill-educated people on social media. Still more possible advances are killed off by politicians or businesses because it doesn't suit their personal ambitions.
Goldman will be right in some things, because he lists so many, but he should really stick to sports science and collecting titles and letters.
For the 21st C I see the West descending due to laziness and over-regulation and the East rising for exactly the opposite. One thing is true - nothing stays the same.
Goldman will be right in some things, because he lists so many, but he should really stick to sports science and collecting titles and letters.
For the 21st C I see the West descending due to laziness and over-regulation and the East rising for exactly the opposite. One thing is true - nothing stays the same.
$100 for a robot that can tillage ground?
Soil is very wearing on metal parts and considerable amounts of power is needed to move it.
The wearing parts alone would cost more today, and the capital expenditure for the mass production of them has already been priced in.
More likely, the practice of agriculture in Africa will be hugely distorted by large charitable institutions.
Soil is very wearing on metal parts and considerable amounts of power is needed to move it.
The wearing parts alone would cost more today, and the capital expenditure for the mass production of them has already been priced in.
More likely, the practice of agriculture in Africa will be hugely distorted by large charitable institutions.
010101 said:
$100 for a robot that can tillage ground?
Soil is very wearing on metal parts and considerable amounts of power is needed to move it.
The wearing parts alone would cost more today, and the capital expenditure for the mass production of them has already been priced in.
More likely, the practice of agriculture in Africa will be hugely distorted by large charitable institutions.
They could get some bloody spades and hoes out. No shortage of cheap labour in Africa.Soil is very wearing on metal parts and considerable amounts of power is needed to move it.
The wearing parts alone would cost more today, and the capital expenditure for the mass production of them has already been priced in.
More likely, the practice of agriculture in Africa will be hugely distorted by large charitable institutions.
TbirdX said:
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time
So who will fund all these tech advances if there's no user base to pay for them?
I am a child of the 70s and Tomorrows World promised me that I would never have to do a days work as robots would be doing everything. Even as an eight year old I could see the problem with this prediction.So who will fund all these tech advances if there's no user base to pay for them?
Beati Dogu said:
3D printing has to be THE most hyped technology at the moment. In reality it's rather crap, incredibly slow and only suited for prototyping purposes.
The one on the ISS churns out the same weak & ropey looking stuff up there too.
Have a look at the Carbon 3D M1. The one on the ISS churns out the same weak & ropey looking stuff up there too.
The wind and solar providing cheap energy won't happen. At least not 24/7/365 in countries that have proper seasons. They're just too intermittent and solar particularly seems really sensitive to things like cloud cover and even angle of the sun. The only place I see them working decently is on the small scale at home. Perhaps you have a small turbine and a small solar array on your house and you have something like a Tesla PoweWall in the garage. You might not make enough energy to cover yourself every day but you might reduce reliance on grid power for a significant portion of the year.
Here's a similar view from The Register:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/08/why_everyo...
If you're doing anything that can be replaced by software, you might want to change careers sooner rather than later. Plumbers, brickies & electricians will always be in demand so maybe head that way - although you will need to fight off the Poles if the Brexit vote doesn't win.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/08/why_everyo...
If you're doing anything that can be replaced by software, you might want to change careers sooner rather than later. Plumbers, brickies & electricians will always be in demand so maybe head that way - although you will need to fight off the Poles if the Brexit vote doesn't win.
Beati Dogu said:
3D printing has to be THE most hyped technology at the moment. In reality it's rather crap, incredibly slow and only suited for prototyping purposes.
The one on the ISS churns out the same weak & ropey looking stuff up there too.
Depends on what is being 3D printed and the printer.The one on the ISS churns out the same weak & ropey looking stuff up there too.
Metal printers do exist and are being actively used in Aerospace production. But these machines are in the £1m range.
The one I think will have a big impact is construction, basically they tie a concrete pump to a large 3+ Axis robot and print buildings. These can work a lot quicker than conventional construction processes. A group in the Netherlands built an office (including fitting it out) in 17days.
Will it replace mass production, probably not, but where it can save time and money it will be used.
MartG said:
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year.
Oh st my pension is not even close to providing for immortality.Otispunkmeyer said:
Have a look at the Carbon 3D M1.
Yes, I subscribe to Tested on Youtube and they looked at it last month. It makes a nicer looking product that the usual SLA methods and it's certainly a step in the right direction. They need a better company name though.I can see the potential advantages of 3D printing, but I don't see it as a panacea. It has a long way to go before it'll be as useful as some people think it will. It's the transition of the technology from a rapid prototyping tool to a final, usable product that's the interesting bit.
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