Meteorology question

Meteorology question

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Discussion

john2443

Original Poster:

6,385 posts

217 months

Monday 17th February 2014
quotequote all
We go running at 9 am every Saturday and this year it has never rained between 9 and 9.30 despite how wet it's been the rest of the time and since last April it's only been wet 3 times.

Are we just lucky or is there something that happens like the ground warming as the sun comes up are drives the rain away?

(South Coast UK)

Tx

mnkiboy

4,409 posts

172 months

Monday 17th February 2014
quotequote all
For the past 3 years i've walked the dog every morning at 6am for half an hour. It's made me realise it doesn't rain as much as you think it does. Probably get wet once every 2 weeks on average.

Even in the past few weeks when it has been raining seemingly almost constantly, I've rarely had to wear a waterproof.

Manicminer

11,056 posts

203 months

Monday 17th February 2014
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Yep, the sky gods don't get up until 10am

At the moment they're particularly tired making all this crappy weather bow

Spare tyre

10,158 posts

136 months

Monday 17th February 2014
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in 2001 i moved to portsmouth, i was living in Fratton and walking about 4 miles a day round trip to get into town

I lived there exactly 1 year and realized that i'd never got rained on once, despite doing this 4 mile round trip at least 5 times a week

The following year i got pissed on most days

Timsta

2,779 posts

252 months

Monday 17th February 2014
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mnkiboy said:
For the past 3 years i've walked the dog every morning at 6am for half an hour. It's made me realise it doesn't rain as much as you think it does. Probably get wet once every 2 weeks on average.

Even in the past few weeks when it has been raining seemingly almost constantly, I've rarely had to wear a waterproof.
That's not as good as you think. You have a 50% chance of it raining.

steve singh

3,995 posts

179 months

Monday 17th February 2014
quotequote all
Timsta said:
mnkiboy said:
For the past 3 years i've walked the dog every morning at 6am for half an hour. It's made me realise it doesn't rain as much as you think it does. Probably get wet once every 2 weeks on average.

Even in the past few weeks when it has been raining seemingly almost constantly, I've rarely had to wear a waterproof.
That's not as good as you think. You have a 50% chance of it raining.
1 in 14 chance?

mnkiboy

4,409 posts

172 months

Monday 17th February 2014
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No, I don't understand this either.

elster

17,517 posts

216 months

Monday 17th February 2014
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Park Run have booked Saturday mornings of clear weather. Only obvious explanation

Justin Cyder

12,624 posts

155 months

Monday 17th February 2014
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PH answer: Weather gods smiling on you.

Real answer: Convection. You need the sun for weather. Sun comes up, heats the ground, the ground in turn heats the air, the air rises, taking water with it, forms clouds, rains. Takes a while to get going. Ask any glider pilot, sailor, farmer etc.

Manicminer

11,056 posts

203 months

Monday 17th February 2014
quotequote all
Justin Cyder said:
PH answer: Weather gods smiling on you.

Real answer: Convection. You need the sun for weather. Sun comes up, heats the ground, the ground in turn heats the air, the air rises, taking water with it, forms clouds, rains. Takes a while to get going. Ask any glider pilot, sailor, farmer etc.
How come it often throws it down in the middle of the night?

Justin Cyder

12,624 posts

155 months

Monday 17th February 2014
quotequote all
Because weather is not exclusively about convection. Same reason it sometimes throws it down early in the morning. Meteorology is a big complex subject. If it weren't, weather forecasts would be accurate & they're not. Not beyond two or three days at least.

However, in this country, we have pretty reliable factors for producing convective weather patterns: a large body of water to the west, a large landmass & prevailing south westerly winds & a mid latitude position in the world. In percentage terms you're on safe-ish ground predicting calm starts to the day with the weather getting going mid morning & calming down in the late afternoon.

Timsta

2,779 posts

252 months

Monday 17th February 2014
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steve singh said:
Timsta said:
mnkiboy said:
For the past 3 years i've walked the dog every morning at 6am for half an hour. It's made me realise it doesn't rain as much as you think it does. Probably get wet once every 2 weeks on average.

Even in the past few weeks when it has been raining seemingly almost constantly, I've rarely had to wear a waterproof.
That's not as good as you think. You have a 50% chance of it raining.
1 in 14 chance?
Doh, I can't read. I thought it was once a week. But yes, every day would make a slight difference.

john2443

Original Poster:

6,385 posts

217 months

Monday 17th February 2014
quotequote all
elster said:
parkrun have booked Saturday mornings of clear weather. Only obvious explanation
That is the commonly held view, but it seems unlikely to really be true wink hence I wondered if there is a real reason!