The BBC weather forecast

[Simpo Two]

For several weeks the BBC weather forecast has predicted temps of -2/-4 NEXT week. But when next week arrives, it is always well above freezing.

It's still doing it: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2650023

Do they set the whole thing to '-2/-4' by default then change it a few days beforehand? I've never known such a useless forecast; may as well just look out of the pigging window.

[mcelliott]

Agree. I find that their accuracy has diminished markedly over the last year or two. Over a 24 hour period I would say their accuracy is probably 60/70%, but even this I've noticed to be out at times. We've had days where I live where rain has been forecast - e.g a westerly driven atlantic front has been predicted to cross over the region and have had a completely bone dry day! If you go to their website and click on the forecast for GB, you'll see that the first 24 hours has got accurate timing and some fairly good detail on the cloud/rain movement, and then after the 24 hour period the map just turns to blue splodges indicating predicted rainfall/cloud cover with absolutely no detailed timing on it. It's a bit like they might be guessing! Also every Monday they renew their monthly forecast which I have found to be almost a complete waste of time. Must try harder!

[Simpo Two]

Glad it's not just me. Can anyone recommend a better site? I need to know when/if my boat is likely to freeze! So far thanks to that useless forecast it's been in a second marina on shore power clocking up extra cost...

[wheedler]

Simpo Two said:

Glad it's not just me. Can anyone recommend a better site? I need to know when/if my boat is likely to freeze! So far thanks to that useless forecast it's been in a second marina on shore power clocking up extra cost...

Crystal ball/God. I really want to call you three stupid, but then again I had to look into why forecasters can't predict weather past a few days at best. Merry Christmas

[Terminator X]

Nobody can predict the weather ffs it's too complicated, ignore anything more than plus a few days esp if they say next Summer will be hottest ever ...

TX.

[phil-sti]

Isn't forecasting about looking at trends and trying to correlate them with previous years? Last 2 years at this time we had snow and it was cold, so they probably are going off that first and then bringing into reality as they get close to the day. I find 24 hour forecasts quite good.

[Simpo Two]

phil-sti said:

Isn't forecasting about looking at trends and trying to correlate them with previous years?

I thought they looked at satellite photographs and put them in a big computer. Well that's how it used to be done.

Any mug can say 'Well it was mild this time last year so that's what it will be this year'.

I wonder if this a(nother) case of computer vs experienced meteorologist using best judgement?

[phil-sti]

I think they do use the computer but they will use historical trends I would think.

[HOGEPH]

try www.yr.no

[tr7v8]

Simpo Two said:

Glad it's not just me. Can anyone recommend a better site? I need to know when/if my boat is likely to freeze! So far thanks to that useless forecast it's been in a second marina on shore power clocking up extra cost...

I used to have a couple of tubular heaters in the engine bay & one in the cabin, on a thermostat. They only came on when needed.

[Simpo Two]

HOGEPH said:

try www.yr.no

Now that looks promising: http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Ely/...

Are there minimum temps or am I being thick?

[mcelliott]

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-Surf-Chart/1/#?...

Might find this useful.

[Simpo Two]

Doesn't appear to do Cambridgeshire!

[Derek Smith]

My father reckoned that the biggest improvement to weather forecasting in the war was when the threat of German air raids receded. This allowed the non-combatants, who had been safely ensconced below ground, to be moved up into buildings with windows.

[Munter]

I like this site.

http://www.netweather.tv/

[Simpo Two]

Thanks - but no minimum (night) temps that I can see:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7...

Seems like the BBC is the only site to do min temps and they are completely wrong (beyond 24 hours)!

[Crafty_]

Try weather.co.uk, it seems fairly accurate

[wheedler]

Simpo Two said:

Thanks - but no minimum (night) temps that I can see:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7...

Seems like the BBC is the only site to do min temps and they are completely wrong (beyond 24 hours)!

What you need, doesn't exist yet hth

[anonymous-user]

wheedler said:

What you need, doesn't exist yet hth

Anyone who needs or believes weather forecasters should probably visit a physiatrist , I suppose they are about as useful as a witch doctor in Africa, only numpties actually listen to or care about what they say

[wiffmaster]

HOGEPH said:

try www.yr.no

By far the best I've used.

I've been using it for the last six months or so and even when using the long-term forecast, it's normally absolutely correct about rain/fog/wind/sun/cloud and within a degree on the temperature.