Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

[mike9009]

remedy said:

I appreciate the responses, thanks.

I'm very familiar with metrology, having been in the precision engineering side of the manufacturing industry for 23 years.
That's also why I'm confused by how a measurement device from >100 years ago would be directly comparable with the equipment we have today.
I struggle to see how a gauge R&R study would be returning <10% for a glass thermometer in 1880. Even assuming it was the best quality one. As GRR shows, the device is one thing, the person(s) reading it is another.

If the max temp in a year was 25C and the lowest was say - 5C, the total study variation would be 30C. So a 10% GRR would give an error of 3 degrees in each reading. With a thermometer with 0.1C resolution, I don't think the reproducibility (Have I got that the right way round??) of using a human to read and record would be greater than 10%? Maybe 2%? 0.6C max?

Therefore I would accept the measurement system, unless you were not considering the total variation? I think you need to look at the total variation that the instrument is recording.

Unless I have misunderstood your point?

The bigger issue would perhaps be a systemic bias in the measurement system rather than variability. So, for example, the operator consistently looks at the wrong end of the meniscus. So perhaps a 0.1C difference (I am not familiar with these measurements devices though).

Averaged over a month or year the operator variation would not be a concern or impact the GRR.

Edited by mike9009 on Friday 7th June 09:51

[donkmeister]

Oh look, the BBC has an article about how June is colder than normal.

So what do we think? Is this because meteorologists can only report statistics on weather that has actually been happening? Or is this just a bluff so they can wait until the climate change deniers are looking the other way before shouting "lol actually it's a record breaking hot one. PSYCH!!!"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c044x1xz42g...

[Lawro]

I'm seeing a lot of guff about how May can't possibly be the warmest ever because "I had to wear a woolly hat".

Even if the met office were deliberately deceiving the public I think globally India, at 13 times the size of the UK, more than nullifies any numerical shenanigans.

Hottest summer for 120 years.

[donkmeister]

Lawro said:

I'm seeing a lot of guff about how May can't possibly be the warmest ever because "I had to wear a woolly hat".

Even if the met office were deliberately deceiving the public I think globally India, at 13 times the size of the UK, more than nullifies any numerical shenanigans.

Hottest summer for 120 years.

Ah, but India having a hot summer is obviously irrelevant to climate change because you expect India to be hot...

My thermometers are clearly the only metric that matters in this debate. I've got one in the fridge and the other in the airing cupboard and they're showing different temperatures. Therefore climate change is a myth.

[mike9009]

donkmeister said:

Lawro said:

I'm seeing a lot of guff about how May can't possibly be the warmest ever because "I had to wear a woolly hat".

Even if the met office were deliberately deceiving the public I think globally India, at 13 times the size of the UK, more than nullifies any numerical shenanigans.

Hottest summer for 120 years.

Ah, but India having a hot summer is obviously irrelevant to climate change because you expect India to be hot...

My thermometers are clearly the only metric that matters in this debate. I've got one in the fridge and the other in the airing cupboard and they're showing different temperatures. Therefore climate change is a myth.

The problem in India is that the hottest temp recorded is an average and you cannot reliably trust averages.

Averages are hopeless.

So, it is probably not the hottest but just how the data is portrayed.

Am I doing this right??

[Kawasicki]

donkmeister said:

Oh look, the BBC has an article about how June is colder than normal.

So what do we think? Is this because meteorologists can only report statistics on weather that has actually been happening? Or is this just a bluff so they can wait until the climate change deniers are looking the other way before shouting "lol actually it's a record breaking hot one. PSYCH!!!"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c044x1xz42g...

Colder than normal is also an expected outcome of climate change, so it’s further supporting evidence.

[PRTVR]

Kawasicki said:

donkmeister said:

Oh look, the BBC has an article about how June is colder than normal.

So what do we think? Is this because meteorologists can only report statistics on weather that has actually been happening? Or is this just a bluff so they can wait until the climate change deniers are looking the other way before shouting "lol actually it's a record breaking hot one. PSYCH!!!"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c044x1xz42g...

Colder than normal is also an expected outcome of climate change, so it’s further supporting evidence.

Warmer,colder, wetter, drier
Repent you sinners, it's all your fault.

[juliussneezer]

Kawasicki said:

donkmeister said:

Oh look, the BBC has an article about how June is colder than normal.

So what do we think? Is this because meteorologists can only report statistics on weather that has actually been happening? Or is this just a bluff so they can wait until the climate change deniers are looking the other way before shouting "lol actually it's a record breaking hot one. PSYCH!!!"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c044x1xz42g...

Colder than normal is also an expected outcome of climate change, so it’s further supporting evidence.

Possibly but June hasn't finished yet so it's jumping the gun a bit.

[Brother D]

I think Scott Adams has been cancelled - but still amusing : )

[Lawro]

I'll see your climate conspiracy agenda meme and raise you a climate denier thicko one.

[donkmeister]

Lawro said:

I'll see your climate conspiracy agenda meme and raise you a climate denier thicko one.

I bet he would also be complaining about the lack of 24/7 news coverage when a plane that doesn't actually belong to a singer he's never heard of until now, got some orange paint on it...

[mike9009]

Does the woolen jumper scale have a negative for when someone needs to remove a shirt and wear shorts?

It might make it more accurate for climate measurement.....

[Acorn1]

It is quite warm tonight

[juliussneezer]

juliussneezer said:

Kawasicki said:

donkmeister said:

Oh look, the BBC has an article about how June is colder than normal.

So what do we think? Is this because meteorologists can only report statistics on weather that has actually been happening? Or is this just a bluff so they can wait until the climate change deniers are looking the other way before shouting "lol actually it's a record breaking hot one. PSYCH!!!"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c044x1xz42g...

Colder than normal is also an expected outcome of climate change, so it’s further supporting evidence.

Possibly but June hasn't finished yet so it's jumping the gun a bit.

Just to bring this up to date.

World breaches critical 1.5C warming threshold 12 months in a row, Copernicus data finds.

https://news.sky.com/story/world-breaches-critical...

[Kawasicki]

juliussneezer said:

juliussneezer said:

Kawasicki said:

donkmeister said:

Oh look, the BBC has an article about how June is colder than normal.

So what do we think? Is this because meteorologists can only report statistics on weather that has actually been happening? Or is this just a bluff so they can wait until the climate change deniers are looking the other way before shouting "lol actually it's a record breaking hot one. PSYCH!!!"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c044x1xz42g...

Colder than normal is also an expected outcome of climate change, so it’s further supporting evidence.

Possibly but June hasn't finished yet so it's jumping the gun a bit.

Just to bring this up to date.

World breaches critical 1.5C warming threshold 12 months in a row, Copernicus data finds.

https://news.sky.com/story/world-breaches-critical...

Hotter than normal is also an expected outcome of climate change, so it’s further supporting evidence.

[Kawasicki]

Yale Environment 360 said:

The world was wrong to expect that climate change would trigger rapid and widespread desertification in the world’s arid lands. In fact, the reverse is happening.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/greening-drylands-carbon-dioxide-climate-change

The world was wrong? What world is that then?

Rest assured, this is bad news.

[Lawro]

Kawasicki said:

Yale Environment 360 said:

The world was wrong to expect that climate change would trigger rapid and widespread desertification in the world’s arid lands. In fact, the reverse is happening.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/greening-drylands-carbon-dioxide-climate-change

The world was wrong? What world is that then?

Rest assured, this is bad news.

The prognosis in the final 6 paragraphs make that clear.

[Kawasicki]

2020 study shows Earth spinning faster, climate change may be to blame, basic physics explains why…

https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/earth-ro...

2024 study shows Earth spinning slower, yes… you guessed right, climate change may be to blame, basic physics explains why…

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-c...

[juliussneezer]

Your first link contains the following statement "However, experts predict that this speeding up is a temporary effect and the Earth will start slowing down again in the future."

So not so different to your second link ultimately.

[Kawasicki]

juliussneezer said:

Your first link contains the following statement "However, experts predict that this speeding up is a temporary effect and the Earth will start slowing down again in the future."

So not so different to your second link ultimately.

Climate change was scientifically justified as a factor that causes both slowing down and speeding up.

Impressive stuff.

No matter what actually happens, even if those outcomes are diametrically opposite in direction, there is a scientific explanation that climate change was at least partially responsible.