Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

[Getragdogleg]

kerplunk said:

HarryW said:

kerplunk said:

HarryW said:

But my wearing of jumpers, rain coats and gas bill tells me something different.

You're very out-gunned

Do you have thicker jumpers then?

I don't wear jumpers much

I mean you're ill equipped to argue against a database of direct measurements by thermometers.

Many of those thermometers must in stupid places then. Like airport runways or next to tarmac car parks or on a roof next to an air con unit.

[kerplunk]

Getragdogleg said:

kerplunk said:

HarryW said:

kerplunk said:

HarryW said:

But my wearing of jumpers, rain coats and gas bill tells me something different.

You're very out-gunned

Do you have thicker jumpers then?

I don't wear jumpers much

I mean you're ill equipped to argue against a database of direct measurements by thermometers.

Many of those thermometers must in stupid places then. Like airport runways or next to tarmac car parks or on a roof next to an air con unit.

Yes it must be the equipment - human thermometers are infallible

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't know anyone who sits inside a stevenson screen box all day every day. Humans are inside buildings alot, often asleep, and when they're not they're walking around in direct sunshine, wind and rain. Bad thermometer placing!

Edited by kerplunk on Wednesday 5th June 11:31

[Getragdogleg]

kerplunk said:

Yes it must be the equipment - human thermometers are infallible

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't know anyone who sits inside a Stevenson screen box all day every day. Humans are inside buildings a lot, often asleep, and when they're not they're walking around in direct sunshine, wind and rain. Bad thermometer placing!

There is probably nothing wrong with the equipment, just that (as i said) its been sited badly...

[kerplunk]

Getragdogleg said:

kerplunk said:

Yes it must be the equipment - human thermometers are infallible

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't know anyone who sits inside a Stevenson screen box all day every day. Humans are inside buildings a lot, often asleep, and when they're not they're walking around in direct sunshine, wind and rain. Bad thermometer placing!

There is probably nothing wrong with the equipment, just that (as i said) its been sited badly...

I can see you don't want to discuss how human perceptions can be skewed.

Over on NP&E someone was amazed that this May could've been warmer than May 2020. I'm sure many of us remember May 2020 as a lovely warm month. But air temps were unremarkable in the data - fairly warm mean max temps but nothing record breaking and a little below average minimum temps. Mean temps for the month in the years either side of it were warmer.

It's the sunshine what done it



It was also an extremely dry month in England & Wales

Edited by kerplunk on Wednesday 5th June 13:57

[juliussneezer]

Getragdogleg said:

kerplunk said:

Yes it must be the equipment - human thermometers are infallible

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't know anyone who sits inside a Stevenson screen box all day every day. Humans are inside buildings a lot, often asleep, and when they're not they're walking around in direct sunshine, wind and rain. Bad thermometer placing!

There is probably nothing wrong with the equipment, just that (as i said) its been sited badly...

Interesting point but providing the readings are taken consistently from the same site then does that matter particularly? Let's take the jet wash scenario, did recorded temps drop dramatically at those sites when planes weren't flying during the pandemic?

[Getragdogleg]

juliussneezer said:

Getragdogleg said:

kerplunk said:

Yes it must be the equipment - human thermometers are infallible

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't know anyone who sits inside a Stevenson screen box all day every day. Humans are inside buildings a lot, often asleep, and when they're not they're walking around in direct sunshine, wind and rain. Bad thermometer placing!

There is probably nothing wrong with the equipment, just that (as i said) its been sited badly...

Interesting point but providing the readings are taken consistently from the same site then does that matter particularly? Let's take the jet wash scenario, did recorded temps drop dramatically at those sites when planes weren't flying during the pandemic?

I have two identical thermometers at my house, one on the back door, one on the front, the back door read 15 degrees while the front door read 23 earlier.

They are 30 ft apart at best shade, wind, position in relation to other hot/cold things all play their part in this.

My problem is with other factors not being taken into consideration and then the sweeping statements like "hottest may on record in the UK" being taken as gospel.

Sure a little box in a car park or on a roof will give you the state of the temp and sun duration at that location only. Go 40ft in any direction and It may well be very different.

Even my cars cant agree on a temp and they are next to each other on the drive.

[durbster]

Getragdogleg said:

My problem is with other factors not being taken into consideration and then the sweeping statements like "hottest may on record in the UK" being taken as gospel.

If the data says it was the hottest May on record, then it was the hottest May on record. Not sure what grounds you have to dispute that.

What "other factors" are not being taken into consideration? What's wrong with the current methodology?

Do you think they should ring HarryW each day to ask what jumper he's wearing?

[juliussneezer]

Getragdogleg said:

I have two identical thermometers at my house, one on the back door, one on the front, the back door read 15 degrees while the front door read 23 earlier.

They are 30 ft apart at best shade, wind, position in relation to other hot/cold things all play their part in this.

Now extrapolate that out to thousands of fixed thermometers dotted around the country. You collate these and it gives you an average temperature.

You continue to take readings year after year from the same thermometers in the same positions and find that the average rises over time. What does that tell you?

[Getragdogleg]

juliussneezer said:

Getragdogleg said:

I have two identical thermometers at my house, one on the back door, one on the front, the back door read 15 degrees while the front door read 23 earlier.

They are 30 ft apart at best shade, wind, position in relation to other hot/cold things all play their part in this.

Now extrapolate that out to thousands of fixed thermometers dotted around the country. You collate these and it gives you an average temperature.

You continue to take readings year after year from the same thermometers in the same positions and find that the average rises over time. What does that tell you?

It tells me we don't have enough temp stations and I think the figures are high because of the position of the stations near hot stuff or in sheltered areas.

May was not hot, nor was April. Don't know why the data says it was, I and many others think it's wrong.

Don't piss on my head and tell me it's raining is how I feel about it.

The data acquisition method is not reliable enough to to be issuing the statements that are coming out.

[Beati Dogu]

juliussneezer said:

Now extrapolate that out to thousands of fixed thermometers dotted around the country. You collate these and it gives you an average temperature.

You continue to take readings year after year from the same thermometers in the same positions and find that the average rises over time. What does that tell you?

It tells you you don't know anything about urban sprawl and the heat island effect.

[mike9009]

I thought the average temp in May 2024 in the UK was high because the cloud cover meant the night time temps did not drop as much as, say, May 2020.

Meanwhile, global temps.....

https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-may-2024-...

[kerplunk]

Getragdogleg said:

juliussneezer said:

Getragdogleg said:

kerplunk said:

Yes it must be the equipment - human thermometers are infallible

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't know anyone who sits inside a Stevenson screen box all day every day. Humans are inside buildings a lot, often asleep, and when they're not they're walking around in direct sunshine, wind and rain. Bad thermometer placing!

There is probably nothing wrong with the equipment, just that (as i said) its been sited badly...

Interesting point but providing the readings are taken consistently from the same site then does that matter particularly? Let's take the jet wash scenario, did recorded temps drop dramatically at those sites when planes weren't flying during the pandemic?

I have two identical thermometers at my house, one on the back door, one on the front, the back door read 15 degrees while the front door read 23 earlier.

They are 30 ft apart at best shade, wind, position in relation to other hot/cold things all play their part in this.

My problem is with other factors not being taken into consideration and then the sweeping statements like "hottest may on record in the UK" being taken as gospel.

Sure a little box in a car park or on a roof will give you the state of the temp and sun duration at that location only. Go 40ft in any direction and It may well be very different.

Even my cars cant agree on a temp and they are next to each other on the drive.

It's difficult to imagine what station siting issues could've kicked in to produce such an exceptional monthly mean minimum departure across the UK.

Edited by kerplunk on Thursday 6th June 00:06

[kerplunk]

Getragdogleg said:

juliussneezer said:

Getragdogleg said:

I have two identical thermometers at my house, one on the back door, one on the front, the back door read 15 degrees while the front door read 23 earlier.

They are 30 ft apart at best shade, wind, position in relation to other hot/cold things all play their part in this.

Now extrapolate that out to thousands of fixed thermometers dotted around the country. You collate these and it gives you an average temperature.

You continue to take readings year after year from the same thermometers in the same positions and find that the average rises over time. What does that tell you?

It tells me we don't have enough temp stations and I think the figures are high because of the position of the stations near hot stuff or in sheltered areas.

May was not hot, nor was April. Don't know why the data says it was, I and many others think it's wrong.

Don't piss on my head and tell me it's raining is how I feel about it.

The data acquisition method is not reliable enough to to be issuing the statements that are coming out.

Yes that about covers it I think - you and many others like you are acting like the claim is that May was 'hot' and are busy rolling your eyes at that strawman of your own making.

Bad acting too cos you surely know it was the warm lows that was the main contributor by now

[Getragdogleg]

kerplunk said:

It's difficult to imagine what station siting issues could've kicked in to produce such an exceptional monthly mean minimum departure across the UK.

No idea either. I think as our understanding of it all improves we will sort out things like this and realise it's really hard to factor it all in to give a precise reading.

May, in Cornwall was colder than in my memory, many others agree, perhaps these statements about "record temp" need to be more regional and not so general, that's also a bit more scientific too, the UK is a big varied area.

[kerplunk]

mike9009 said:

Meanwhile, global temps.....

https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-may-2024-...

Yes speaking of warm air temps there's still a lot of it about

[kerplunk]

Getragdogleg said:

kerplunk said:

It's difficult to imagine what station siting issues could've kicked in to produce such an exceptional monthly mean minimum departure across the UK.

No idea either. I think as our understanding of it all improves we will sort out things like this and realise it's really hard to factor it all in to give a precise reading.

Well in the absence of ideas I tend to think it was a real weather effect myself - occams razor

Getragdogleg said:

May, in Cornwall was colder than in my memory, many others agree, perhaps these statements about "record temp" need to be more regional and not so general, that's also a bit more scientific too, the UK is a big varied area.

Cambourne station data for May - Mean max/min - 15.9/10.2

So night temps a little higher than the UK result, day temps a couple of degrees lower.

A very similar result to 2023 and 2022 actually. 2021 was a couple of degrees cooler - 13.2/7.8

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/c...

Edited by kerplunk on Thursday 6th June 00:46

[PRTVR]

durbster said:

Getragdogleg said:

My problem is with other factors not being taken into consideration and then the sweeping statements like "hottest may on record in the UK" being taken as gospel.

If the data says it was the hottest May on record, then it was the hottest May on record. Not sure what grounds you have to dispute that.

What "other factors" are not being taken into consideration? What's wrong with the current methodology?

Do you think they should ring HarryW each day to ask what jumper he's wearing?

It isn't just HarryW though, it's people up and down the country (except for parts of Scotland) in the North east we had sleet, there are lies, dam lies and statistics, numbers can be made to support any agenda .
And yes I was wearing a jumper.

[PRTVR]

juliussneezer said:

Getragdogleg said:

kerplunk said:

Yes it must be the equipment - human thermometers are infallible

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't know anyone who sits inside a Stevenson screen box all day every day. Humans are inside buildings a lot, often asleep, and when they're not they're walking around in direct sunshine, wind and rain. Bad thermometer placing!

There is probably nothing wrong with the equipment, just that (as i said) its been sited badly...

Interesting point but providing the readings are taken consistently from the same site then does that matter particularly? Let's take the jet wash scenario, did recorded temps drop dramatically at those sites when planes weren't flying during the pandemic?

Mostly the problem is what you do with the data, they have started to alter it, even retrospectively if you cool the past you warm the present, sadly the science is been used to promote an agenda.

[juliussneezer]

Beati Dogu said:

juliussneezer said:

Now extrapolate that out to thousands of fixed thermometers dotted around the country. You collate these and it gives you an average temperature.

You continue to take readings year after year from the same thermometers in the same positions and find that the average rises over time. What does that tell you?

It tells you you don't know anything about urban sprawl and the heat island effect.

Explain how it's wrong, show your real world workings.

[juliussneezer]

Getragdogleg said:

It tells me we don't have enough temp stations and I think the figures are high because of the position of the stations near hot stuff or in sheltered areas.

May was not hot, nor was April. Don't know why the data says it was, I and many others think it's wrong.

Don't piss on my head and tell me it's raining is how I feel about it.

The data acquisition method is not reliable enough to to be issuing the statements that are coming out.

Same answer as above. Show your workings please. It doesn't have to be hotter in your location during the daytime hours that you are awake for the average temperature overall to be warmer. Your argument that you and many others think it's wrong is itself wrong unless you have credible alternative data. Do you?

This is the 'Harry's Jumper' argument rehashed.