How long can we all go on with the different COVID variants?

[Leicesterdave]

.....

Unless I'm missing something no one in the media is answering the question. Covid has been a part of all our lives for the best part of 2 years now- a huge number of us have been vaccinated, and we allegedly understand this virus a lot more.

We've had a number of different variants and the key thing is that we will keep getting them, so when does this nightmare end?? How many years must we endure the incessant news around the corner that yet another variant is spreading like wildfires?? When do we actually live with the virus or does life effectively never go back to how it was before??

[elanfan]

There’s a theory that the reason the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918/20 that killed upwards of 50 million ended was because it mutated a few times and ended by being highly contagious but so weak it was barely a cold.

It looks as though similar is happening now with Covid. We’ve had a few variants, this latest one has infected loads of people but hospitalisations and deaths are down. Average hospital stay is 50% of before too. If it mutates again which seems likely hopefully it will be weaker still. If this proves to be the case I bet policy will change to allow it to spread. Then the pandemic should in effect be over.

[Leicesterdave]

elanfan said:

There’s a theory that the reason the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918/20 that killed upwards of 50 million ended was because it mutated a few times and ended by being highly contagious but so weak it was barely a cold.

It looks as though similar is happening now with Covid. We’ve had a few variants, this latest one has infected loads of people but hospitalisations and deaths are down. Average hospital stay is 50% of before too. If it mutates again which seems likely hopefully it will be weaker still. If this proves to be the case I bet policy will change to allow it to spread. Then the pandemic should in effect be over.

I sincerely hope you're right- this would be great.

But what does this mean for future viruses- can we avoid another pandemic?

[xeny]

Leicesterdave said:

But what does this mean for future viruses- can we avoid another pandemic?

Sure, stay locked down all the time. /s

Realistically, I don't see how, sooner or later(and later could be centuries) something or other will mutate enough to cross species or escape existing immunity.

The more people on the planet and the more they travel around the higher the risk is.

[Jasandjules]

elanfan said:

There’s a theory that the reason the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918/20 that killed upwards of 50 million ended was because it mutated a few times and ended by being highly contagious but so weak it was barely a cold.
.

This is historically what happens with a virus, Darwin in effect. Well understood that a less severe form mutates over time to prevent too many hosts (and thus the virus) dying..... What we have however done with our Lockdown and vax etc is interrupt this and prolong it, which I also believe SAGE was aware of....

[Roofless Toothless]

When this first started a couple of years ago I recall hearing an interview with an epidemiologist, I think on the R4 Today programme. The interviewer was prescient enough to ask how this it was all going to end. The answer was along the lines that the virus doesn’t get up in the morning and think, I’m going to kill as many people as I can today. It’s only desire, like all ‘living’ entities is to reproduce itself, and it will not do that if the people it affects drop down dead before they can infect others. The best evolutionary direction is to keep people on their feet longer, interacting with others, and passing on the virus. In other words, become weaker and more like a cold or flu in its severity. With luck, each successive major variant should show this trait, while any more virulent mutations tend to die out.

[xeny]

Roofless Toothless said:

The best evolutionary direction is to keep people on their feet longer, interacting with others, and passing on the virus. In other words, become weaker and more like a cold or flu in its severity. With luck, each successive major variant should show this trait, while any more virulent mutations tend to die out.

This is more true of a virus that isn't infectious until after symptoms are apparent. I think this is why we did so much better at stopping SARS-1, it wasn't infectious until after symptoms were apparent.

If the virus has moved on to a new host(s) before symptoms are even apparent, then there is much less selective pressure to have less impact on the original host.

[MrBarry123]

Roofless Toothless said:

When this first started a couple of years ago I recall hearing an interview with an epidemiologist, I think on the R4 Today programme. The interviewer was prescient enough to ask how this it was all going to end. The answer was along the lines that the virus doesn’t get up in the morning and think, I’m going to kill as many people as I can today. It’s only desire, like all ‘living’ entities is to reproduce itself, and it will not do that if the people it affects drop down dead before they can infect others. The best evolutionary direction is to keep people on their feet longer, interacting with others, and passing on the virus. In other words, become weaker and more like a cold or flu in its severity. With luck, each successive major variant should show this trait, while any more virulent mutations tend to die out.

I believe I heard exactly that interview too.

[lizardbrain]

Leicesterdave said:

I sincerely hope you're right- this would be great.

But what does this mean for future viruses- can we avoid another pandemic?

We might be better prepared for the next one. I read somewhere, that the big investment in I testing labs has longer term plans to also prepare our defences against future outbreaks.

I guess one reason some eastern countries were better prepared, was they had their own scares more recently, vs Europe. in some respects lockdown is more likely next time as it’s been proven effective and population more willing than predicted.

I remember reading pre covid, that flu epidemic was listed very high up the list of threats to National security. Rehearsals were half hearted owever. We can understand more easily why pandemics are so disruptive.

[Hackney2]

This is going to be with us for a very long time,that you can be assured.More strains will mutate.The world as we knew it has changed.

[Sheets Tabuer]

It seems most pandemics last 3-5 years until they blow themselves out. not long now.

[glazbagun]

lizardbrain said:

Leicesterdave said:

I sincerely hope you're right- this would be great.

But what does this mean for future viruses- can we avoid another pandemic?

We might be better prepared for the next one. I read somewhere, that the big investment in I testing labs has longer term plans to also prepare our defences against future outbreaks.

I guess one reason some eastern countries were better prepared, was they had their own scares more recently, vs Europe. in some respects lockdown is more likely next time as it’s been proven effective and population more willing than predicted.

I remember reading pre covid, that flu epidemic was listed very high up the list of threats to National security. Rehearsals were half hearted owever. We can understand more easily why pandemics are so disruptive.

The French health minister came back from a conference on pandemics and bought billions of face masks and vaccines for what was feared to be a really bad Flu variant. In the end, it only killed a few hundred in France and she left in disgrace for blowing so much money just as the GFC was biting.

In 2015 Bill Gates was telling us that we weren't prepared in the west for Pandemics and were merely lucky that previous epidemics had mainly been contained in other parts of the world. He proposed a kind of "Health NATO" that linked and could pool the various talents of the world experts. He thought it would be really expensive, but a fraction of the cost of a Pandemic. Sounds like he knew a thing or two that guy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

[Terminator X]

Leicesterdave said:

.....

Unless I'm missing something no one in the media is answering the question. Covid has been a part of all our lives for the best part of 2 years now- a huge number of us have been vaccinated, and we allegedly understand this virus a lot more.

We've had a number of different variants and the key thing is that we will keep getting them, so when does this nightmare end?? How many years must we endure the incessant news around the corner that yet another variant is spreading like wildfires?? When do we actually live with the virus or does life effectively never go back to how it was before??

Viruses get weaker over time which is never reported in the news. Every new variant will be weaker than the last. At some point we should just ignore Covid like we do with colds + flu although get jabbed etc if you are scared. Tough shout now though as it seems 8 of 10 people st themselves even at the mere mention of Covid.

TX.

[Ouroboros]

elanfan said:

but so weak it was barely a cold.

The common cold, isnt weak, it produces mild responses in the infected. There are still at risk groups that can die from the common cold.

A cold can also have more severe symptoms in the very young and the very old. Older people are more likely to develop a more serious infection compared with adults or older children.

People who smoke – or who are exposed to second-hand smoke – are also more likely to get a cold and have more severe symptoms.

People with an existing lung condition. They can include people with asthma, cystic fibrosis or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Infection with a virus that causes inflammation of the airways can make breathing much harder. People with COPD who catch a mild cold virus are also at risk of developing a bacterial infection.

So the reality is, when it doesnt kill as many as it has, but it will still infect and kill people.

Edited by Ouroboros on Monday 3rd January 02:34

[xeny]

Terminator X said:

Viruses get weaker over time which is never reported in the news. Every new variant will be weaker than the last.

Delta definitely wasn't less of a health threat than Alpha, so we have recent evidence that last sentence is incorrect.

This person explains why it isn't that simple https://medium.com/a-microbiome-scientist-at-large... He's got a PhD in genetics, so you'd hope would know something about evolution.