What happened to Mad Cow Disease?
Discussion
There was a time when this was a huge topic with cows being slaughtered & dire predictions of thousands of people developing CJZ-like illnesses over the years, but there seems to be no mention of it these days.
Did the precautions taken at the time eliminate the disease or are we still in the incubation period & there are going to thousands of deaths?
Did the precautions taken at the time eliminate the disease or are we still in the incubation period & there are going to thousands of deaths?
The now infamous Professor Pants Down (Neil Ferguson) was largely responsible for the now discredited modelling:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/...
It's a good job he's not involved in COVID modelling...oh...wait..
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/...
It's a good job he's not involved in COVID modelling...oh...wait..
Watching a TV series from 2006 the other day and in the final episode the main character is diagnosed with this.
Big surprise as the programmes were nothing to do with cows or any mention of the illness.
I guess the writer thought it was to become a big killer. Certainly the press at the time insinuated that we'd all die of it.
Good job the media and the papers have calmed down a lot since then,.......... oh wait.........
Big surprise as the programmes were nothing to do with cows or any mention of the illness.
I guess the writer thought it was to become a big killer. Certainly the press at the time insinuated that we'd all die of it.
Good job the media and the papers have calmed down a lot since then,.......... oh wait.........
CJD still exists as it always has done. What happened here was new variant CJD which was linked to cattle. The banning of bonemeal fed to ruminants eventually stopped The explosion of BSE in its tracks and the removal of brain and spinal column stopped it entering the food chain.
The problem originally wasn't the feeding of meat and bonemeal to cattle as such, it was the reduction in rendering temperatures that the govt allowed after lobbying from the renderers. The media never really reported this as it wasn't sensational enough for them. Fortunately the measures taken in the round were successful, even though it's arguable if they were entirely necessary.
There was another theory concerning organophospate compounds which were being used as sheep dip on order of the govt before the BSE crisis struck. The sheep brains were then used to make meat and bonemeal at these reduced rendering temperatures. Mark Purdy was the big advocate of this theory, and it had a lot of coverage in the farming world and many farmers were demanding the theory be investigated. The govt didn't want to know as it might have proved extremely inconvenient for them. Mark Purdy died a number of years ago, and his theory fizzled out without making any more headway. There is no doibt among farmers however that the govt caused it in some way or other but they pointed the finger of blame at the farming industry which had nothing to do with what happened.
The problem originally wasn't the feeding of meat and bonemeal to cattle as such, it was the reduction in rendering temperatures that the govt allowed after lobbying from the renderers. The media never really reported this as it wasn't sensational enough for them. Fortunately the measures taken in the round were successful, even though it's arguable if they were entirely necessary.
There was another theory concerning organophospate compounds which were being used as sheep dip on order of the govt before the BSE crisis struck. The sheep brains were then used to make meat and bonemeal at these reduced rendering temperatures. Mark Purdy was the big advocate of this theory, and it had a lot of coverage in the farming world and many farmers were demanding the theory be investigated. The govt didn't want to know as it might have proved extremely inconvenient for them. Mark Purdy died a number of years ago, and his theory fizzled out without making any more headway. There is no doibt among farmers however that the govt caused it in some way or other but they pointed the finger of blame at the farming industry which had nothing to do with what happened.
Pete102 said:
The now infamous Professor Pants Down (Neil Ferguson) was largely responsible for the now discredited modelling:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/...
It's a good job he's not involved in COVID modelling...oh...wait..
And yet still the Beeb calls on him for 'expert' analysis on stuff. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/...
It's a good job he's not involved in COVID modelling...oh...wait..
Any other profession he'd be in the wilderness where he belongs.
I remember when I was in New Zealand I looked at giving blood and I couldn't because I was in the UK between 1980 and 1996 and would have presumably eaten beef at some point before I was 11. Same rules applied for ROI and France, probably to their displeasure.
Still better than the UK's homophobic rules on blood donation, which are only recently getting relaxed.
Still better than the UK's homophobic rules on blood donation, which are only recently getting relaxed.
Very sad to report that I had a client die of CJD a few months ago.
A lovely man and had only retired 4 years ago. He and his wife bought a winnebago to travel around and enjoy the UK. Anyway in October (between lockdowns) they travelled down to the west country to enjoy a beak. Acording to his wife they pulled up at the campsite and she set about sorting out the interior whilst he set up the awning etc. Anyway 10 minutes later he hadn't finished so she went outside to see what was happening. He was just standing there, didn't have a clue what he was meant to be doing, where he was, what was happening or anything.
WIthin 3 months he was dead. Very, very sad.
Apparently it's a 1 in a million case in the UK currently, no treatment and a death sentence, within 6 months.
A lovely man and had only retired 4 years ago. He and his wife bought a winnebago to travel around and enjoy the UK. Anyway in October (between lockdowns) they travelled down to the west country to enjoy a beak. Acording to his wife they pulled up at the campsite and she set about sorting out the interior whilst he set up the awning etc. Anyway 10 minutes later he hadn't finished so she went outside to see what was happening. He was just standing there, didn't have a clue what he was meant to be doing, where he was, what was happening or anything.
WIthin 3 months he was dead. Very, very sad.
Apparently it's a 1 in a million case in the UK currently, no treatment and a death sentence, within 6 months.
Probably the thing that started off my health anxiety. I was a teenage when this was kicking off and I used to eat burgers nearly every day for my dinner. I remember at the time they were predicting millions of people could die. I was actually genuinely worried for many years and until I decided that my life would be a waste if I continued to live in fear and what will happen will happen. However, all it seems to have done is made me constantly paranoid about my health. Always sounded a particularly horrible way to die.
Pete102 said:
The now infamous Professor Pants Down (Neil Ferguson) was largely responsible for the now discredited modelling:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/...
It's a good job he's not involved in COVID modelling...oh...wait..
Doesn't that link more than likely exonerate Ferguson with regards to vCJD? Anyway...https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/...
It's a good job he's not involved in COVID modelling...oh...wait..
TameRacingDriver said:
Probably the thing that started off my health anxiety. I was a teenage when this was kicking off and I used to eat burgers nearly every day for my dinner. I remember at the time they were predicting millions of people could die. I was actually genuinely worried for many years and until I decided that my life would be a waste if I continued to live in fear and what will happen will happen. However, all it seems to have done is made me constantly paranoid about my health. Always sounded a particularly horrible way to die.
It's still generally feared that it could be a ticking time bomb although worryingly no one really knows how or why. Testing shows something like 1 in 2000 of us have the prion that causes the disease (it lodges in the appendix so it's relatively simple to test all those removed).Are we not falling ill or are we not falling ill yet?
It's generally accepted that the human form generally effects those above the age of 55. The rush of younger people in the mid to late 1990s was obviously concerning but what still isn't known was whether they were blips in the statistics or the sum total of the result of the outbreak.
Did they die abnormal early when the rest of the 1 in 2000 will start to degenerate at 55+ or are they the extent of the 1980s outbreak and no more will die than normal? The result of testing is certain of one thing, the incidence of the prion is far more widespread than would be expected for random infection.
The numbers of those young people who died were simply too random to trace from any point of infection although it needs to be pointed out there were proven "clusters". Were there 100/1000s of infected cattle in the food chain that these people were exposed to? Were the rest of us? Or was the protein so rare it only affected those few hundred people even if it was ingested by thousands of us.
It is simply inevitable that BSE infected cattle entered the human food chain and did so for a number of years. We've been infected and the tests prove it.
What we still don't know is how it's going to effect us.
(sorry if this makes your hypochondria worse!)
Very interesting responses, thank you everyone. I suspected that people were dying from CJD but it just struck me we hadn't seen the huge uptick that was predicted/feared.
I looked for any statistics on vCJD & came across these from the National CJD Research & Surveillance Unit in Edinburgh:
http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/figs.p...
It states that from 2012 to 2021 there have been only 2 deaths from vCJD & since 1990 there have been only 178 deaths in total since 1990 (although of course there are many more from the three types of non-varient CJD).
So it seems it still very rare (135-odd deaths per year) but no less terrible for that.
I looked for any statistics on vCJD & came across these from the National CJD Research & Surveillance Unit in Edinburgh:
http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/figs.p...
It states that from 2012 to 2021 there have been only 2 deaths from vCJD & since 1990 there have been only 178 deaths in total since 1990 (although of course there are many more from the three types of non-varient CJD).
So it seems it still very rare (135-odd deaths per year) but no less terrible for that.
Following on from this thread and to satisfy my own morbid curiosity I went on a little bit of a search last night to find some videos to watch. It's not on the iPlayer any more but there was a good film produced about the scandal in 2019. It is available here;
https://www.b
hute.com/video/FTmBU5VykG8a/
Older readers however may remember the excellent Horizon programs on the subject;
The titles of each episode tell you all you need to know, part 1 The Silent Enemy and part 2 The Human Experiment. These were broadcast the same year my childhood school friend died from vCJD if I remember correctly, or certainly closely afterwards (admittedly I feel I have a somewhat vested interest in the disease as no one knows how or why the vast majority of cases were transmitted barring some evidence of lab accidents, blood transfusions, vaccinations and contaminated surgery equipment).
These videos really go into the science of the subject, episode 2 particularly explains how scientists first discovered the theory and how this amazing reaction happens (although a lot is still unknown). The amazing (and horrifying) fact of how the prion can be incinerated, radiated, disinfected and still remains potent and ready to infect and kill you.
During the late 90s I read up as much as possible on the subject and it's slightly concerning that pretty much all I knew back then is pretty much all we know now.
The thought back then is that we're sitting on a ticking time bomb of cases and it doesn't seem to have changed much. The technology to screen for those of us infected and carrying is available but doesn't happen.
The genetic code in our DNA inherited from our parents, the combination of MM or VV PRNP which stuck down all of the early, younger victims. As time has moved on this now isn't the case with MV genotypes having been affected (so all of us).
Was the prevalence in younger people in the 1990s simply down to their genetic code as seems likely? Is it simply that those with MV will have a longer intubation period? Was it simply that children were more susceptible to infection and it an unfortunate coincidence that schools were one of the institutes that were pressured into using MRM due to the ridiculously low cost or the "bulking up" of foodstuffs that were part of their diet such as burgers and sausages.
The good news if there is any, is that the prevalence of vCJD in those with MM or VV is still low. The majority of 58% MV would still only suggest numbers of around 300 being affected later in life. Very sad for those individuals and their families but not a massive second wave as has been feared.
The caveat to that is that although some experts think this could be the case, no one really knows or is prepared to stake a claim on it. There is simply too little research being done to prove it and of that that is done, there are flaws in the test.
The test cases of how infectious ingesting the protein can be is still based around experiments done when transferring between mice and cows. Jumping between species requires massively different amounts between the species themselves and we never tested between cows and chimpanzees.
And that's considering that the jump between the species happened in the food chain at all. It's the most likely reason of course but there is proven evidence that two young victims were given the same batch of vaccine for polio that contained bovine material out of a group of four victims from the same area.
With the lack of research into it, we still don't know. If it is or was transferred by eating MRM from cows infected with BSE was a single burger enough or was it an accumulation of protein over time? The removal after many years of the brain and spinal chord from the human food chain seems to have done the trick but if the prion can lodge in our tonsils and appendixes where else can lodge in cows (saliva seems to be one answer)?
If it does, how much of it are we still eating?
https://www.b
hute.com/video/FTmBU5VykG8a/Older readers however may remember the excellent Horizon programs on the subject;
The titles of each episode tell you all you need to know, part 1 The Silent Enemy and part 2 The Human Experiment. These were broadcast the same year my childhood school friend died from vCJD if I remember correctly, or certainly closely afterwards (admittedly I feel I have a somewhat vested interest in the disease as no one knows how or why the vast majority of cases were transmitted barring some evidence of lab accidents, blood transfusions, vaccinations and contaminated surgery equipment).
These videos really go into the science of the subject, episode 2 particularly explains how scientists first discovered the theory and how this amazing reaction happens (although a lot is still unknown). The amazing (and horrifying) fact of how the prion can be incinerated, radiated, disinfected and still remains potent and ready to infect and kill you.
During the late 90s I read up as much as possible on the subject and it's slightly concerning that pretty much all I knew back then is pretty much all we know now.
The thought back then is that we're sitting on a ticking time bomb of cases and it doesn't seem to have changed much. The technology to screen for those of us infected and carrying is available but doesn't happen.
The genetic code in our DNA inherited from our parents, the combination of MM or VV PRNP which stuck down all of the early, younger victims. As time has moved on this now isn't the case with MV genotypes having been affected (so all of us).
Was the prevalence in younger people in the 1990s simply down to their genetic code as seems likely? Is it simply that those with MV will have a longer intubation period? Was it simply that children were more susceptible to infection and it an unfortunate coincidence that schools were one of the institutes that were pressured into using MRM due to the ridiculously low cost or the "bulking up" of foodstuffs that were part of their diet such as burgers and sausages.
The good news if there is any, is that the prevalence of vCJD in those with MM or VV is still low. The majority of 58% MV would still only suggest numbers of around 300 being affected later in life. Very sad for those individuals and their families but not a massive second wave as has been feared.
The caveat to that is that although some experts think this could be the case, no one really knows or is prepared to stake a claim on it. There is simply too little research being done to prove it and of that that is done, there are flaws in the test.
The test cases of how infectious ingesting the protein can be is still based around experiments done when transferring between mice and cows. Jumping between species requires massively different amounts between the species themselves and we never tested between cows and chimpanzees.
And that's considering that the jump between the species happened in the food chain at all. It's the most likely reason of course but there is proven evidence that two young victims were given the same batch of vaccine for polio that contained bovine material out of a group of four victims from the same area.
With the lack of research into it, we still don't know. If it is or was transferred by eating MRM from cows infected with BSE was a single burger enough or was it an accumulation of protein over time? The removal after many years of the brain and spinal chord from the human food chain seems to have done the trick but if the prion can lodge in our tonsils and appendixes where else can lodge in cows (saliva seems to be one answer)?
If it does, how much of it are we still eating?
Gassing Station | Health Matters | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff