How quickly does COVID really spread
Discussion
Imaging going back to a place with no social distancing or masks, and no COVID.
Imagine then taking someone with COVID on the 23rd December and letting them roam free untl finding out they had it on New Years Eve.
Then publish a list of places said person had been, and ask some of those people who were also there to get tested.
Then raise (yesterday) that you have 7 more positive cases, and that some of those people can be traced back to shops, bars, cafes and wine bar on New Years Eve where they were mixing with hundreds of others.
How quickly do you thi k it would have spread from there until announcing a lockdown yesterday with introduction of masks and social distancing.
Guess we are about to find put how quickly this new strain slreads from a starting point of zero as that's the experiment that's kicking off here on the Isle of Man at the moment.
Public opinion seems to range from "overreaction" to "we're all doomed" with not much in between.
Imagine then taking someone with COVID on the 23rd December and letting them roam free untl finding out they had it on New Years Eve.
Then publish a list of places said person had been, and ask some of those people who were also there to get tested.
Then raise (yesterday) that you have 7 more positive cases, and that some of those people can be traced back to shops, bars, cafes and wine bar on New Years Eve where they were mixing with hundreds of others.
How quickly do you thi k it would have spread from there until announcing a lockdown yesterday with introduction of masks and social distancing.
Guess we are about to find put how quickly this new strain slreads from a starting point of zero as that's the experiment that's kicking off here on the Isle of Man at the moment.
Public opinion seems to range from "overreaction" to "we're all doomed" with not much in between.
Quite quickly, especially in care homes
Moron the wife works with allowed her brother to travel from a known hotspot to self isolate in her home and yep, inevitable contracted it. So that's 4 ( her, him, husband and son)
Goes in to work to ask what the positive test means.
Infects another 3, one of which is a resident which now makes 7.
One of the ones she infected goes to see her mate, who also works there for a coffee and a moan.
That's another 3 - her plus family
So that's 10 just through one person being fairly moronic and not following basic guidelines and advice.
I think the home in question has even more cases now, mainly due to the staff being not much better than the residents when it comes to common sense but that just illustrates how quickly it can spread.
I contracted it i think around the 18th/19th and was off work from the 23rd, yet because the second i knew i had to be in contact with anyone else within the company or close proximity at least, i wore my mask with a filter in it, i managed to avoid spreading around an office of 15 people and save the whole company having to shut down until it was cleared.
Moron the wife works with allowed her brother to travel from a known hotspot to self isolate in her home and yep, inevitable contracted it. So that's 4 ( her, him, husband and son)
Goes in to work to ask what the positive test means.
Infects another 3, one of which is a resident which now makes 7.
One of the ones she infected goes to see her mate, who also works there for a coffee and a moan.
That's another 3 - her plus family
So that's 10 just through one person being fairly moronic and not following basic guidelines and advice.
I think the home in question has even more cases now, mainly due to the staff being not much better than the residents when it comes to common sense but that just illustrates how quickly it can spread.
I contracted it i think around the 18th/19th and was off work from the 23rd, yet because the second i knew i had to be in contact with anyone else within the company or close proximity at least, i wore my mask with a filter in it, i managed to avoid spreading around an office of 15 people and save the whole company having to shut down until it was cleared.
It can spread very quickly.
My father in law tested negative couple of days before Christmas did his job Xmas Eve. Got a call to go test Boxing Day came up positive. My family spend Xmas day with them we all got it off him. His whole family have it including his parents now. That’s a tally of 10 from one day unaware with it. At least 4 other family’s caught it at work Xmas Eve. Rough estimate could easily be 40 people because one person turned up at his work with it.
P.s father in law ended up on a respirator.
My father in law tested negative couple of days before Christmas did his job Xmas Eve. Got a call to go test Boxing Day came up positive. My family spend Xmas day with them we all got it off him. His whole family have it including his parents now. That’s a tally of 10 from one day unaware with it. At least 4 other family’s caught it at work Xmas Eve. Rough estimate could easily be 40 people because one person turned up at his work with it.
P.s father in law ended up on a respirator.
Simple mathematical explanation here: Numberphile - from the early days of the first lockdown.
Nimby said:
Simple mathematical explanation here: Numberphile - from the early days of the first lockdown.
Thankyou Nimby, that makes a lot of sense. 
slopes said:
I contracted it i think around the 18th/19th and was off work from the 23rd, yet because the second i knew i had to be in contact with anyone else within the company or close proximity at least, i wore my mask with a filter in it, i managed to avoid spreading around an office of 15 people and save the whole company having to shut down until it was cleared.
I'm struggling here - does this mean you went in to the office as normal, so masked up, but you had not had the test results yet? You might want to be more careful how you write it up. Puggit said:
slopes said:
I contracted it i think around the 18th/19th and was off work from the 23rd, yet because the second i knew i had to be in contact with anyone else within the company or close proximity at least, i wore my mask with a filter in it, i managed to avoid spreading around an office of 15 people and save the whole company having to shut down until it was cleared.
I'm struggling here - does this mean you went in to the office as normal, so masked up, but you had not had the test results yet? You might want to be more careful how you write it up. Davetheraver said:
No more positive cases to date. Nothing, despite 2 separate positive people being in packed venues over Christmas and New Year.
Meanwhile we are all stuck at home for 3 weeks.
Madness
You mean apart from the 68,000 new cases announced today?Meanwhile we are all stuck at home for 3 weeks.
Madness
Hospitals on track to be in serious trouble within 2 weeks.
Now would be a very, very good time to avoid catching Covid because the last thing you would want would be to be needing a hospital bed any time in the next 6-8 weeks.
Wombat3 said:
You mean apart from the 68,000 new cases announced today?
Hospitals on track to be in serious trouble within 2 weeks.
Now would be a very, very good time to avoid catching Covid because the last thing you would want would be to be needing a hospital bed any time in the next 6-8 weeks.
He's talking about the IoM...Hospitals on track to be in serious trouble within 2 weeks.
Now would be a very, very good time to avoid catching Covid because the last thing you would want would be to be needing a hospital bed any time in the next 6-8 weeks.
Davetheraver said:
Not grumbling. Am pointing out I find it interesting that with zero social distancing, packed bars and loads of mass gatherings it doesn't appear to have spread at all.
Seems strange and against what most people would have expected
There seems to be a certain amount of luck, some "superspreaders" seem to shed loads of virus, some don't.Seems strange and against what most people would have expected
Bill said:
Wombat3 said:
You mean apart from the 68,000 new cases announced today?
Hospitals on track to be in serious trouble within 2 weeks.
Now would be a very, very good time to avoid catching Covid because the last thing you would want would be to be needing a hospital bed any time in the next 6-8 weeks.
He's talking about the IoM...Hospitals on track to be in serious trouble within 2 weeks.
Now would be a very, very good time to avoid catching Covid because the last thing you would want would be to be needing a hospital bed any time in the next 6-8 weeks.
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