Discussion
What are your thoughts on them?
Up a fair bit since we can all travel again, we're planning a trip to Thailand over Christmas / New Year, so far each time I check they are rising steadily, yet oil / petrol / diesel are coming down - does anyone expect flight prices to follow or should I book ASAP?
Up a fair bit since we can all travel again, we're planning a trip to Thailand over Christmas / New Year, so far each time I check they are rising steadily, yet oil / petrol / diesel are coming down - does anyone expect flight prices to follow or should I book ASAP?
Mark V GTD said:
Unfortunately it’s way to far in to the future to get any good fares. You need to leave it until about a month before you want to go and monitor the fares very closely on Skyscanner. Expect to buy tickets around two weeks before you go.
Thanks Mark, very interesting, you've obviously done this before.It appears to be a lottery however booking the week before is disastrous which I know to my cost after a colonial family emergency just before Christmas
The week after Christmas is equally spendy too......
On the other hand the sweet spot for us was booking flights to the US at 9 months out
I imagine the industry uses a shared algorithm and PH will almost certainly have somebody on board who understands it
Good luck
I spend around £30k pa on personal flights and have found booking early and selecting the seats I want after consulting seatguru my best option. I'm sure there's ways to save money here and there - but for me having peace of mind I'm on the flight and more flexibility of where I'm sitting - I boom early.
Most airlines now have a revenue management dept. The days of seats being sold off cheap are consequently few and far between.
In any given cabin there are various buckets of fares. Once all the seats in the cheapest bucket have been sold, the price goes up to reflect the next bucket price level (this ignores things like flexibility and refundability, which are generally reserved for the more expensive buckets). The closer you get to travel, the more buckets have been sold out and the more expensive the remaining seats are.
Plus you’re travelling over Xmas/NY, which is a period when many people want to visit their families/return home. Airlines exploit that mercilessly and bump their prices for that very reason.
The only thing that is going to work in your favour is the chance of a seat sale by an airline that flies your route. Dig around on flyertalk.com to see if you can work out when your candidate airlines launch their seat sales.
In any given cabin there are various buckets of fares. Once all the seats in the cheapest bucket have been sold, the price goes up to reflect the next bucket price level (this ignores things like flexibility and refundability, which are generally reserved for the more expensive buckets). The closer you get to travel, the more buckets have been sold out and the more expensive the remaining seats are.
Plus you’re travelling over Xmas/NY, which is a period when many people want to visit their families/return home. Airlines exploit that mercilessly and bump their prices for that very reason.
The only thing that is going to work in your favour is the chance of a seat sale by an airline that flies your route. Dig around on flyertalk.com to see if you can work out when your candidate airlines launch their seat sales.
IME, I travel quite a bit, you need to book at least 6 months out. Most airlines let you book 10 to 12 months out.
Past the 6 month point and prices only go up.
The only exception is black friday sales (for spring flights) and the summer sales (for winter flights).
Some airlines dont even have sales any more.
I have also seen flights becoming fuller and fuller so the chances of getting a lucky cheap ticket are slim.
Also, to keep the price down use points where possible. Lastly, I am looking at Thailand for this winter too and the prices have been high since the start of the year. I think its going to be an in demand route. I am now looking at going to HKG first then HKG to BKK. (still not 100% on that plan though)
Past the 6 month point and prices only go up.
The only exception is black friday sales (for spring flights) and the summer sales (for winter flights).
Some airlines dont even have sales any more.
I have also seen flights becoming fuller and fuller so the chances of getting a lucky cheap ticket are slim.
Also, to keep the price down use points where possible. Lastly, I am looking at Thailand for this winter too and the prices have been high since the start of the year. I think its going to be an in demand route. I am now looking at going to HKG first then HKG to BKK. (still not 100% on that plan though)
I'm a bit sick of seeing how expensive everything now is. I'm sure someone will disagree or point out that the industry needs the income - all true but I'm talking solely from my own viewpoint if you'll allow.
I often spend a lot of time on Airbnb or Expedia, skyscanner. Often dreaming of a trip for a few nights all the way to a week or two.
The cost is way more than pre-covid and I rarely, if ever see a true bargain
I often spend a lot of time on Airbnb or Expedia, skyscanner. Often dreaming of a trip for a few nights all the way to a week or two.
The cost is way more than pre-covid and I rarely, if ever see a true bargain
The airline industry is a great example of how inflation can quickly send prices crazy.
The airline is often not in control of very much of their business financially because there are just so many suppliers its not possible. So you end up in operations costs soaring.
Plus the USD being quite strong the last couple of years hurts.
Still, I have found if you are willing to be flexible you can find some deals. But for most people it's quite hard as the deals are usually inconvenient for most.
I am doing NRT>HKG>MAN in a couple of weeks and in business with Cathay it's 1250ppn. But most people would not want 18hrs + of flight time with 8hr layover in hkg. If you did NRT >LHR it would prob cost that in economy.
The airline is often not in control of very much of their business financially because there are just so many suppliers its not possible. So you end up in operations costs soaring.
Plus the USD being quite strong the last couple of years hurts.
Still, I have found if you are willing to be flexible you can find some deals. But for most people it's quite hard as the deals are usually inconvenient for most.
I am doing NRT>HKG>MAN in a couple of weeks and in business with Cathay it's 1250ppn. But most people would not want 18hrs + of flight time with 8hr layover in hkg. If you did NRT >LHR it would prob cost that in economy.
12dan34 said:
Thanks Mark, very interesting, you've obviously done this before.
I do long haul four times a year yes (but not to the US so others experience may be based on that)gotoPzero said:
Still, I have found if you are willing to be flexible you can find some deals. But for most people it's quite hard as the deals are usually inconvenient for most.
Very much agree - I will take all sorts of strange combinations and lay overs in order to get cheap business class tickets. Recently paid £625 with Etihad from Doha to Manila in BC!Edited by Mark V GTD on Thursday 1st June 08:00
gotoPzero said:
The airline industry is a great example of how inflation can quickly send prices crazy.
The airline is often not in control of very much of their business financially because there are just so many suppliers its not possible. So you end up in operations costs soaring.
Plus the USD being quite strong the last couple of years hurts.
Still, I have found if you are willing to be flexible you can find some deals. But for most people it's quite hard as the deals are usually inconvenient for most.
I am doing NRT>HKG>MAN in a couple of weeks and in business with Cathay it's 1250ppn. But most people would not want 18hrs + of flight time with 8hr layover in hkg. If you did NRT >LHR it would prob cost that in economy.
The exchange rate certainly has an impact - aviation fuel is bought in Dollars. The airline is often not in control of very much of their business financially because there are just so many suppliers its not possible. So you end up in operations costs soaring.
Plus the USD being quite strong the last couple of years hurts.
Still, I have found if you are willing to be flexible you can find some deals. But for most people it's quite hard as the deals are usually inconvenient for most.
I am doing NRT>HKG>MAN in a couple of weeks and in business with Cathay it's 1250ppn. But most people would not want 18hrs + of flight time with 8hr layover in hkg. If you did NRT >LHR it would prob cost that in economy.
I generally find, you are usually better booking as early as possible. There are exceptions, and you may get lucky, but there is a higher chance of fairs increasing.
Until last year, I used to fly a lot (at least 2 flights per week) - as far as I could work out, the model most airlines seem to use is a combination of buckets & dynamic pricing.
Buckets - early pricing is cheap & as each bucket is sold, the price increases. Some of the logic here is that the earlier you book, the more likely you are to cancel or modify the booking and incur extra charges. It's also money in the bank for the airline for longer.
Dynamic pricing - the more people that are concurrently booking, the faster the price rises, over and above bucketing. It's also used to lower prices when booking volume has dropped below expectations.
The combination means that prices can spike at random times, then settle down again. It also means that as the flight date approaches, prices can go either way. If the flight is nearly sold out (as per the airline plan), those last few seats will shoot up in price. However, if the flight is under-sold, the price can fall dramatically.
I always used to spend a few hours the day the flights were released booking up several months of travel. I concluded that those were usually the lowest prices, certainly close to the lowest possible - and I felt much better knowing I had it all booked up. Late bargains are certainly out there, but it's a roll of the dice. If you're flexible on dates and destination, then fine, but if you need to be in a specific place on a specific date with a family etc. then I wouldn't risk it.
Buckets - early pricing is cheap & as each bucket is sold, the price increases. Some of the logic here is that the earlier you book, the more likely you are to cancel or modify the booking and incur extra charges. It's also money in the bank for the airline for longer.
Dynamic pricing - the more people that are concurrently booking, the faster the price rises, over and above bucketing. It's also used to lower prices when booking volume has dropped below expectations.
The combination means that prices can spike at random times, then settle down again. It also means that as the flight date approaches, prices can go either way. If the flight is nearly sold out (as per the airline plan), those last few seats will shoot up in price. However, if the flight is under-sold, the price can fall dramatically.
I always used to spend a few hours the day the flights were released booking up several months of travel. I concluded that those were usually the lowest prices, certainly close to the lowest possible - and I felt much better knowing I had it all booked up. Late bargains are certainly out there, but it's a roll of the dice. If you're flexible on dates and destination, then fine, but if you need to be in a specific place on a specific date with a family etc. then I wouldn't risk it.
That's not the entirety of the OP's problem, when I booked flights for the summer I was amazed at how expensive they are now, compared with a few years ago. But then I got to the last page of the check-out process and it finally splits the price down and the tax element was higher than what the same flights used to cost in total.
It's simply not possible to have cheap flights now as Governments have decided that if you can afford to fly, you should be paying them more of your money.
It's simply not possible to have cheap flights now as Governments have decided that if you can afford to fly, you should be paying them more of your money.
Petrus1983 said:
I spend around £30k pa on personal flights and have found booking early and selecting the seats I want after consulting seatguru my best option. I'm sure there's ways to save money here and there - but for me having peace of mind I'm on the flight and more flexibility of where I'm sitting - I boom early.
Seat guru is no longer updated just to warn you. Aerolopa gives you the up to date seat maps but doesn’t offer the same level of insight so prob best compare the two.paulrockliffe said:
That's not the entirety of the OP's problem, when I booked flights for the summer I was amazed at how expensive they are now, compared with a few years ago. But then I got to the last page of the check-out process and it finally splits the price down and the tax element was higher than what the same flights used to cost in total.
It's simply not possible to have cheap flights now as Governments have decided that if you can afford to fly, you should be paying them more of your money.
Taxes and fees. The UK APD on a return London Heathrow to New York flight in economy is £87, on the way out Heathrow charge another £56, the US govt charges £31 and the rest goes to the airline including their £120 “carrier imposed charge” which I would consider to be part of the fare. On the way back it’s $31 in US taxes and fees and $250 carrier imposed charge. Total tax is ~£145, £56 to Heathrow so £200 that the airline doesn’t see, the rest is all theirs.It's simply not possible to have cheap flights now as Governments have decided that if you can afford to fly, you should be paying them more of your money.
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