Dubai property prices 'will never decline'

[speedy_thrills]

Salem Almoosa said:

In my opinion prices will never ever go down due to several factors. First and foremost is that we have a visionary leadership that has conducted the essential and proper studies regarding the situation in the Middle East as a whole, as well as a studying the situation in the emirates in particular. So they have a plan. Of course the execution of the plan is not the end of the story, they went further than this by minimising the risk in the execution of the plan which means they looked at the fundamental issues such as economic factors, the political issues, the social issues and so forth. They took all the issues and points concerning the real estate market and took the necessary steps. I also think individuals should not throw speculation into the market for their own purposes. If parties are spreading rumours that prices will go down they are doing this so they can buy cheaply and not because that is a reality. I believe people should not speculate unless what they say is supported by facts.

- http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20081020041...



Have your fingers over the "short" button gentlemen, when that bubble bursts it'll fall like a stone. There is massive oversupply and apartments sitting empty all over the city. I've got a friend out there in real estate and she says that panick selling has just started over the last couple of weeks. Someone is going to make a fortune .

When you hear people make statements like this you can be sure it's not going to be far away now.

[ALawson]

No over supply in Abu Dhabi (yet).

[Swilly]

There is massive over supply in Dubai and loads more blocks going up.....

But, the mortgage market in Dubai is apparently only 7% of the market, the rest being cash purchases.

You will also find that Emiratees will happily hold onto empty property and tell potential tenants to bog off if they try to haggle the price down... its an arab thing.

They have enough cash not to care about rental income.... apparently on reaching 25 every Emiratee is gifted a domestic plot of land, a commercial plot and an industrial plot to do with as they see fit.

The other thing of course is the the Emirates are tied up tighter than a nun's ... you cant just go in and buy property willy nilly so speculation is controlled.

http://www.shelteroffshore.com/index.php/property/...

Edited by Swilly on Thursday 23 October 08:26

[toppstuff]

It will be very interesting to see what happens in Dubai.

The place is not the same as other states in the region. The sheer audacity of its unchecked expansion, with caution thrown to the wind, will prove to be a big test to the ruling family IMO.

Weak governance and cowboy building practices have prevailed and a lot of dodgy deals have made people rich.

But when it all collapses and the bubble bursts, will pride make the rulers step in and prop the whole ediface up? Can they afford to? Can they afford not to?

And will they finish that Huuuuuge Burj tower thing that is eleventymillion metres high, apparently?

[Swilly]

The Burj is 'only' 800m when completed.

Now the Nakheel Tower, at 1400m tall is something else.... and got the go ahead last week

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Burj

[jamoor]

Swilly said:

There is massive over supply in Dubai and loads more blocks going up.....

But, the mortgage market in Dubai is apparently only 7% of the market, the rest being cash purchases.

You will also find that Emiratees will happily hold onto empty property and tell potential tenants to bog off if they try to haggle the price down... its an arab thing.

They have enough cash not to care about rental income.... apparently on reaching 25 every Emiratee is gifted a domestic plot of land, a commercial plot and an industrial plot to do with as they see fit.

The other thing of course is the the Emirates are tied up tighter than a nun's ... you cant just go in and buy property willy nilly so speculation is controlled.

http://www.shelteroffshore.com/index.php/property/...

Edited by Swilly on Thursday 23 October 08:26

Similar things happen in all Arab countries.

[NoelWatson]

speedy_thrills said:

Salem Almoosa said:

In my opinion prices will never ever go down due to several factors. First and foremost is that we have a visionary leadership that has conducted the essential and proper studies regarding the situation in the Middle East as a whole, as well as a studying the situation in the emirates in particular. So they have a plan. Of course the execution of the plan is not the end of the story, they went further than this by minimising the risk in the execution of the plan which means they looked at the fundamental issues such as economic factors, the political issues, the social issues and so forth. They took all the issues and points concerning the real estate market and took the necessary steps. I also think individuals should not throw speculation into the market for their own purposes. If parties are spreading rumours that prices will go down they are doing this so they can buy cheaply and not because that is a reality. I believe people should not speculate unless what they say is supported by facts.

- http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20081020041...



Have your fingers over the "short" button gentlemen, when that bubble bursts it'll fall like a stone. There is massive oversupply and apartments sitting empty all over the city. I've got a friend out there in real estate and she says that panick selling has just started over the last couple of weeks. Someone is going to make a fortune .

When you hear people make statements like this you can be sure it's not going to be far away now.

Sounds much like the property experts on here 12 months ago

[speedy_thrills]

Romour: Apparently construction has been pulled on the airport and second palm. AD is bailing them out but they are in deep, $20bn deep.

[Guybrush]

Never say never. Ever.

[Jasandjules]

speedy_thrills said:

Salem Almoosa said:

In my opinion prices will never ever go down due to several factors.

Man who sells property says, your money is safe here shock.....

[Einion Yrth]

Percy Bysshe Shelley said:

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things.
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
'My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away

[speedy_thrills]

toppstuff said:

But when it all collapses and the bubble bursts, will pride make the rulers step in and prop the whole ediface up? Can they afford to? Can they afford not to?

Have you seen the spreads on Dubai Holdings debt?

Dubai is technically screwed. It's borrowing is the equivalent of 100% of its GDP and I've heard romours of 15% occupancy. HSBC have increased their LTV to 50%. The prices are so shaky the government-run DIFC Investments are pouring money in to prop prices up.

Moodys said:

Dubai Inc.’s leverage (including the government and government-owned companies but not banks) has risen close to US$ 50 billion, exceeding the Emirate’s 2006 GDP.

[cardigankid]

Einion Yrth said:

Percy Bysshe Shelley said:

'My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'

Very apt. Our man reminds me of Comical Ali. Nobody can 'regulate' private development.

[yorky500]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I have been saying the same thing since I got here 4 years ago. It will never happen, so the rumour has it.

And yes, rumour is that the property market is flooded and people are waiting far longer to sell than they were before. Banks now want 40% deposits on property, but is the rental prices going to drop? I very much doubt it.

As some said above, you drive around the marina at night and the vast majority of apartments have no lights on (surely they can not all be at the pub!).

I would love to see the propoerty market crash, might give us daft people who work for a living and rent apartments a fighting chance.

[rhinochopig]

until the oil runs out.

[crossle]

Six years of working in the Gulf taught me several valuable lessons in life.

The most important one being:

"How can you tell when a local is lying to you?"

"When his lips are moving...."

[Zod]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

no clarity as to legal title to land, particularly in the shoddy reclaimed bits.

Edited by Zod on Thursday 23 October 09:23

[yorky500]

rhinochopig said:

until the oil runs out.

No oil to speak of in Dubai, its Abu Dhabi that has it all + natural gas, hence why they can bail out Dubai.

[crossle]

Zod said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

no clarity as to legal title to land, particularly in the shoddy reclaimed bits.

Edited by Zod on Thursday 23 October 09:23

As I understood it from my experience there, the Emir owns all the land. As a local, you can be "gifted" land to build a house, etc, but if you upset the Emir you'll find the land has reverted to the original owner, and you're denied access to your property.

After the coup in Qatar, when the current Emir overthrew his father, there were several very large houses that suddenly became derilict as the new Emir redistributed his "favours"...

[Blib]

I heard a very interesting interview on the BBC World Service last night with a prominent Egyptian economist.

He spoke about the effects of the crisis on various Midlle East countries.

The two he picked out as most vulnerable were Iran, as the Mullahs will be strapped for cash to keep their theocracy running due to the slumping oil price and Dubai which has nothing to fall back on if the bubble bursts.