Energy fix

[Edible Roadkill]

Email from moneysupermarket offering a dual fuel energy fix tariff. Something which I’ve not seen on offer in a long time.

Deal is with So Energy, 12 months fixed.
£75 per fuel exit fee.

Anyway, I stuck my current octopus plan & annual consumption numbers into the website & it says I’ll be £500 better off over 12months.

Anyone shed some wisdom on whether it’s a good idea to enter into a fix agreement at this point?

What’s the forecast on energy prices? Natural gas futures are down, for now at 2019 level.

Coming into winter, more demand, same global & uk macro issues we had last year still exist to a degree, will there be a shortage once again, & price rises again?

Is it worthwhile grabbing the first fix deal I’ve seen or wait / stay on the flexible tariff?

[Scabutz]

Shell are offering me a fix. It's less than a penny per unit cheaper than the current cap. The predictions from Cornwall Insights is a drop again in October, slight rise in Jan, back down April 24. That's baring any major world event pushing things up again.

The fixes don't look worth it to me, especially with the high exit fees.

[Edible Roadkill]

Scabutz said:

Shell are offering me a fix. It's less than a penny per unit cheaper than the current cap. The predictions from Cornwall Insights is a drop again in October, slight rise in Jan, back down April 24. That's baring any major world event pushing things up again.

The fixes don't look worth it to me, especially with the high exit fees.

I thought that was the case but was surprised when I put the numbers in & it said £500 less annually.

Edited by Edible Roadkill on Wednesday 19th July 20:39

[Scabutz]

Edible Roadkill said:

I thought that was the case but was surprised when I put the numbers in & it said £500 less annually.

Can’t see the cost per unit right enough on the comparison site….

It said the fix was 500 less? Wow that's a big difference.

Interested to see what the unit and SC prices are.

[Scabutz]

It's .5 to .7p per kwh cheaper than the current energy cap with the standing charge for leccy very high.

Will depend on your usage but that seems a very high saving from such a small unit price difference.

Plus that calculation is not taking into account the predicted drops.

[Edible Roadkill]

Yeah, scrutinising it outwith the comparison sites headline you’ll save ‘this much’…..it doesn’t seem all that.

Probably should have checked standing rate & unit rate 1st, instead of getting all excited at the prospect of something reducing in price for a change

[Actual]

The fix rate was only 1p per kWh cheaper than my British Gas standard variable (I didn't compare decimal point level) so the advantage would be if energy prices rise which they are expected to do.

I refuse on principal to participate becuase I'm not interested in my typical annual energy cost and I want to know the actual kWh tariff and I had to click through multiple levels to find this hidden information. McDonalds tell me the price of a burger and don't just tell me the typical cost of a household eating quarter pounders over a year. The UK energy market is a CON.

[Gigamoons]

Actual said:

The fix rate was only 1p per kWh cheaper than my British Gas standard variable (I didn't compare decimal point level) so the advantage would be if energy prices rise which they are expected to do.

I refuse on principal to participate becuase I'm not interested in my typical annual energy cost and I want to know the actual kWh tariff and I had to click through multiple levels to find this hidden information. McDonalds tell me the price of a burger and don't just tell me the typical cost of a household eating quarter pounders over a year. The UK energy market is a CON.

Agreed.
It’s actually why I like Octopus, clearly tells me my kWh and standing charge.
My only build would be standing charge as a monthly £.
Breaking it down to pennies a day is all a bit ‘Costa brava timeshare convention’.

[ARHarh]

Gigamoons said:

Actual said:

The fix rate was only 1p per kWh cheaper than my British Gas standard variable (I didn't compare decimal point level) so the advantage would be if energy prices rise which they are expected to do.

I refuse on principal to participate becuase I'm not interested in my typical annual energy cost and I want to know the actual kWh tariff and I had to click through multiple levels to find this hidden information. McDonalds tell me the price of a burger and don't just tell me the typical cost of a household eating quarter pounders over a year. The UK energy market is a CON.

Agreed.
It’s actually why I like Octopus, clearly tells me my kWh and standing charge.
My only build would be standing charge as a monthly £.
Breaking it down to pennies a day is all a bit ‘Costa brava timeshare convention’.

This isn't helped by Ofgen just giving us the headline rates for average yearly use. Try to find out the price cap per unit and daily charge and you really have to hunt around.

[Scabutz]

ARHarh said:

This isn't helped by Ofgen just giving us the headline rates for average yearly use. Try to find out the price cap per unit and daily charge and you really have to hunt around.

Yeah that pisses me off. Even when you do find it's not always strictly true as the suppliers seem to be able to flex the SC and unit price, although that probably makes little difference

[Gigamoons]

ARHarh said:

Gigamoons said:

Actual said:

The fix rate was only 1p per kWh cheaper than my British Gas standard variable (I didn't compare decimal point level) so the advantage would be if energy prices rise which they are expected to do.

I refuse on principal to participate becuase I'm not interested in my typical annual energy cost and I want to know the actual kWh tariff and I had to click through multiple levels to find this hidden information. McDonalds tell me the price of a burger and don't just tell me the typical cost of a household eating quarter pounders over a year. The UK energy market is a CON.

Agreed.
It’s actually why I like Octopus, clearly tells me my kWh and standing charge.
My only build would be standing charge as a monthly £.
Breaking it down to pennies a day is all a bit ‘Costa brava timeshare convention’.

This isn't helped by Ofgen just giving us the headline rates for average yearly use. Try to find out the price cap per unit and daily charge and you really have to hunt around.

Completely agree.

[Scabutz]

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-i...

This page is helpful. Shows the predicted caps for the coming quarters but also breaks that down into what the likely unit price and SCs will be in those quarters.

[Gary C]

EDF just offered me an employee discount to fix for a year. Dropped cost a month by about £30 but at least if prices to fall below that, its no penalty to change.

[Edible Roadkill]

So, is the general PH consensus, leave for now & after the Oct price cap reduction & maybe look at a fix then ?

[B'stard Child]

Scabutz said:

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-i...

This page is helpful. Shows the predicted caps for the coming quarters but also breaks that down into what the likely unit price and SCs will be in those quarters.

So in a nutshell they are predicting what we are currently paying is pretty much here to stay

[Gigamoons]

Edible Roadkill said:

So, is the general PH consensus, leave for now & after the Oct price cap reduction & maybe look at a fix then ?

IIRC Octopus just seem to change mine and tell me it's lower than the price cap.

Maybe I'm too trusting though

[Tommy1000]

Depends who you're with because E.On Next are offering some/all customers a fix (slightly lower than the current cap) which, should you decide wish to get out of it early because the price cap drops, you can change to any other E.On Next tariff for free.

[Deesee]

Edible Roadkill said:

So, is the general PH consensus, leave for now & after the Oct price cap reduction & maybe look at a fix then ?

yep, I posted that on the other thread..

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[Condi]

Edible Roadkill said:

So, is the general PH consensus, leave for now & after the Oct price cap reduction & maybe look at a fix then ?

It entirely depends on your attitude to risk.

At the moment things are looking rosy and there is much less of a risk premium in the market than there has been, however the October price cap is still a few months away and there is always the danger that something happens between now and then which upends the market and prices go back up. It is less likely over summer, the bigger risk is that come winter we have sustained cold temperatures and struggle without Russian supplies, in turn driving up prices.

But as I say, it depends on your attitude to risk. Fixing now and you know what you will be paying. Wait til October and there might not be any fixes cheaper than the price cap, or the price cap could be higher. If there are no fixes cheaper than the price cap then remember the price cap changes in January again, which could be higher if we have a difficult winter.

[Condi]

B'stard Child said:

So in a nutshell they are predicting what we are currently paying is pretty much here to stay

They're not predicting anything.

They're saying that as things stand this is what the prices will be, however they're not making any predictions if the market is going to move up or down, which will affect the prices going forwards. As the market evolves and gets closer to delivery those calculations will change, if the market goes up, the cost cap calcs will go up, if prices come down then the cost calcs will come down.

All that cost cap forecast says is that the market is quite flat between summer 23, winter 23 and summer 24, albeit slightly lower in summer 24. What the actual summer 24 price is will be largely driven by what happens this winter, and that is anyone's guess.