Anyone interested in investing in Iraq?
Discussion
I am going to invest/punt in Iraq with a couple of friends shortly.
The transaction costs are comparatively steep. If anyone's interested in investing a small amount in conjunction with us to save on transaction fees then post here.
FWIW you have to go through a somewhat bureaucratic procedure at teh Iraqi embassy before you can sink any money in... we're making an LLP to share the ownership, which will be being authorised to invest on the Iraqi stock exchange in the very near future...
The transaction costs are comparatively steep. If anyone's interested in investing a small amount in conjunction with us to save on transaction fees then post here.
FWIW you have to go through a somewhat bureaucratic procedure at teh Iraqi embassy before you can sink any money in... we're making an LLP to share the ownership, which will be being authorised to invest on the Iraqi stock exchange in the very near future...
Somewhatfoolish said:
Going for Iraqi banks... haven't decided which ones yet probably going to take em all. It makes a lot of sense as a punt. In a decade Iraq is going to be producing as much oil as Saudi Arabia...
...maybe not as much as Saudi but a frik of a lot more than it is right now! If I wee you I would look at those companies that are best placed to benefit from the new oil boom that is going to happen in Iraq. It's unlikely to be the Iraqi banks. The development plans are huge & the timeframes very short. The Western majors, have all pretty much signed up to the same deal, which gets to peak production in 2015. From where we are now thats one heck of a ramp up. For the field I've been looking at it's tripling production in that time, such that the output exceeds the whole of Kuwait. The Iraqi banks will fund none of this. Why not go the whole hog and invest in the Neblus
It's said to be the only safe place when the Israeli tanks rumble in
Actually there is a lot of beer talk regarding the Dinah at present.
The Middle East is generally very low at present considering the oil price, still suffering from some silly excess building.
Banks are a good place to start, whether their domestic banks could finance all their infrastructure needs is another question. Hermes would benifit should Iraq be able to start spending.
I wish you luck.
Now off to check if my Middle East Fund has any Iraq positions (I doubt it)
It's said to be the only safe place when the Israeli tanks rumble in
Actually there is a lot of beer talk regarding the Dinah at present.
The Middle East is generally very low at present considering the oil price, still suffering from some silly excess building.
Banks are a good place to start, whether their domestic banks could finance all their infrastructure needs is another question. Hermes would benifit should Iraq be able to start spending.
I wish you luck.
Now off to check if my Middle East Fund has any Iraq positions (I doubt it)
jeff m said:
Banks are a good place to start, whether their domestic banks could finance all their infrastructure needs is another question.
They can't, but they don't need to. The cycle in Iraq will pan out as follows if it holds together (big question mark).1) Foreign majors fund the oil field development work in return for a small fee per barrel ($2-$4). Balance revenue goes to Iraq.
2) Some trickle down to Iraqi companies from field development contracts.
3) As production climbs, Iraqi state reveunes rise.
4) Iraqi government uses increased oil revenues to fund infrastructure development & general social development (does not buy guns, tanks, aircraft, rockets, space programs or snaffle the money off to Swiss bank accounts).
5) Iraqi companies grow on the back of government funded infrastructure projects.
6) Iraq becomes happy wealthy & independent & Iraqi banks prosper.
I can see just the odd pitfall along the way
That the exact theory...
Banks are strange though for various reasons I can't remember... they've got government targets in terms of raising capital to hit every year or be nationalised/shut down... to some degree just their banking licence is worth money.
It's very hard for insitutional investors to get involved in Iraq at the moment for various uninteresting reasons; that will obviously change soon. So good to get involved now I think before they do
Edit: Lots of research here: http://www.rabeesecurities.com/research_reports
Banks are strange though for various reasons I can't remember... they've got government targets in terms of raising capital to hit every year or be nationalised/shut down... to some degree just their banking licence is worth money.
It's very hard for insitutional investors to get involved in Iraq at the moment for various uninteresting reasons; that will obviously change soon. So good to get involved now I think before they do
Edit: Lots of research here: http://www.rabeesecurities.com/research_reports
Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Tuesday 2nd November 14:20
i remember several years ago when everyone was going nuts on investing in russia.
i also remember a major bank in a certain city just dissapearing overnight complete with all depositors money. next day it was a travel agency and everyone (including the police and local judiciary) denied it had ever been there.
about the only thing that will be profitable in the next 10 years in iraq is bodybags and cillit bang for clearing up the bloody mess left behind.
its amazing what risks people are prepared to take in pursuit of the sordid coin.
but since you like burning money i'd like to tell you about my friend Zimby Ugababaugabubu who has been put in charge of the sovereign wealth of Nigeria and needs your help........
i also remember a major bank in a certain city just dissapearing overnight complete with all depositors money. next day it was a travel agency and everyone (including the police and local judiciary) denied it had ever been there.
about the only thing that will be profitable in the next 10 years in iraq is bodybags and cillit bang for clearing up the bloody mess left behind.
its amazing what risks people are prepared to take in pursuit of the sordid coin.
but since you like burning money i'd like to tell you about my friend Zimby Ugababaugabubu who has been put in charge of the sovereign wealth of Nigeria and needs your help........
. 
GT03ROB said:
Somewhatfoolish said:
Going for Iraqi banks... haven't decided which ones yet probably going to take em all. It makes a lot of sense as a punt. In a decade Iraq is going to be producing as much oil as Saudi Arabia...
...maybe not as much as Saudi but a frik of a lot more than it is right now! If I wee you I would look at those companies that are best placed to benefit from the new oil boom that is going to happen in Iraq. It's unlikely to be the Iraqi banks. The development plans are huge & the timeframes very short. The Western majors, have all pretty much signed up to the same deal, which gets to peak production in 2015. From where we are now thats one heck of a ramp up. For the field I've been looking at it's tripling production in that time, such that the output exceeds the whole of Kuwait. The Iraqi banks will fund none of this. I've just invested in Kurdistan, won't go into further details (not cos it's secret, just cos I want to keep all to myself!). Interesting experiences.
Huge money can be made, likewise it can be lost quickly. Sounds like you're heading for the latter by "going for a bank". What investment strategy are you following other than big oil producer one day?
Huge money can be made, likewise it can be lost quickly. Sounds like you're heading for the latter by "going for a bank". What investment strategy are you following other than big oil producer one day?
The strategy *I* am following is to act as a veto. My friend is doing the research; he's an middle east analyst at an emerging markets hedge fund*, so he's presenting the ideas.
But yes, it is admittedly a pretty scattergun approach.
And we haven't bought anything yet. In fact the LLP we created was just rejected by companies house for some reason, so going to have to find out why that is first!
*Said hedge fund is unable to invest in almost all these issues for fairly obvious liquidity reasons... but because of who they are he has access to board members etc. Pretty handy... we're also considering Lybia.
But yes, it is admittedly a pretty scattergun approach.
And we haven't bought anything yet. In fact the LLP we created was just rejected by companies house for some reason, so going to have to find out why that is first!
*Said hedge fund is unable to invest in almost all these issues for fairly obvious liquidity reasons... but because of who they are he has access to board members etc. Pretty handy... we're also considering Lybia.
Somewhatfoolish said:
we're also considering Lybia.
Ha..! good luck with that..!Any company over here has to be owned & run by a Libyan, then you have to pay IIRC 40% to the government before you even start, plus whatever you make a BIG % goes to the government as well. All money is done throgh the Libyan owner and he may pass on the rest of the money to you if he feels like it (doesnt matter if there is a contract - wont hold up outside Libya and they dont give a f
k).Then there are the documententation, red tape, Libyan mentality, red tape, and it may still go to pot when The Colonel passes on and the war starts if his son comes into power.
Claire
These guys have been doing it for years. First through holding millions of their currency the 'dinar' in the hope it would appreciate significantly. Then when that did not look to materialise they fed ex'd their paper currency to an Iraqi bank/stock broker and invested in the ISX.
Some interesting experiences from members.
Not for me though.
http://www.investorsiraq.com/
http://www.investorsiraq.com/forumdisplay.php?83-I...
Some interesting experiences from members.
Not for me though.
http://www.investorsiraq.com/
http://www.investorsiraq.com/forumdisplay.php?83-I...
Victor McDade said:
These guys have been doing it for years. First through holding millions of their currency the 'dinar' in the hope it would appreciate significantly. Then when that did not look to materialise they fed ex'd their paper currency to an Iraqi bank/stock broker and invested in the ISX.
Some interesting experiences from members.
Not for me though.
http://www.investorsiraq.com/
http://www.investorsiraq.com/forumdisplay.php?83-I...
Cheers for link, wasn't aware of that place (shows how much research I've done)... I'll have a wee look...Some interesting experiences from members.
Not for me though.
http://www.investorsiraq.com/
http://www.investorsiraq.com/forumdisplay.php?83-I...
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