CSR out Wednesday. What is it likely to result in?
Discussion
It is suggested the markets are waiting to see what it says.
If the NHS is ring fenced, education stands still, armed services down just 10%, either the police budgets are going to have to take a right kicking or the coalition will have to serve up and deliver quickly on some very impressive benefits cuts I doubt they have the stomach nor capacity to deliver.
So, your forecasts for where the cuts will come, their size and impact on the stock and housing markets......
If the NHS is ring fenced, education stands still, armed services down just 10%, either the police budgets are going to have to take a right kicking or the coalition will have to serve up and deliver quickly on some very impressive benefits cuts I doubt they have the stomach nor capacity to deliver.
So, your forecasts for where the cuts will come, their size and impact on the stock and housing markets......
Edited by Cogcog on Monday 18th October 18:08
My guess is that they'll go for benefits.
They haven't got much choice as these are a third of the budget (social protection + personal social services). If health is ring fenced, defense is down 10% and debt interest can't be avoided we have:
A ten percent cut in the question marks gets to about the right number but Tories have traditionally championed public order and may be reluctant to hit education.
If these are also ring fenced then the burden on the remainder to get a 60 billion saving is around 13% each or circa 25 billion for benefits.
They haven't got much choice as these are a third of the budget (social protection + personal social services). If health is ring fenced, defense is down 10% and debt interest can't be avoided we have:
budget item | billions | saving |
---|---|---|
Social Protection | 190 | ? |
Health | 119 | 0 |
Education | 88 | ? |
Defense | 38 | 4 |
Public order and safety | 36 | ? |
Debt interest | 30 | 0 |
Housing and Environment | 30 | ? |
Personal social services | 29 | ? |
Transport | 23 | ? |
Industry, Agriculture and Employment | 21 | ? |
everything else | 72 | ? |
A ten percent cut in the question marks gets to about the right number but Tories have traditionally championed public order and may be reluctant to hit education.
If these are also ring fenced then the burden on the remainder to get a 60 billion saving is around 13% each or circa 25 billion for benefits.
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff