Time to plough into the FTSE or still to drop?

Time to plough into the FTSE or still to drop?

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Discussion

Legend83

Original Poster:

10,129 posts

228 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
FTSE is well below 5000 now and still seems to be struggling in the light of the Eurozone mess.

Thinking now might be a good time to shift some cash into some FTSE-tracking funds as part of my ISA portfolio....

....anyone else think the iron is hot or does the PH financia collective think we have a long way to go?

cs02rm0

13,812 posts

197 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
Well. I'm starting to buy in to quite an extent.

Probably time to sell then. smile

ringram

14,700 posts

254 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
Could be much more to the downside. Ive seen suggestions of 3600 being the low. (ie) Back to 08 and more.
Some dude spouting about Elliot Wave theory etc.
Euro zone needs sorting out. Greece is the laughing stock of the finance community, with that mess still sitting in the Euro nobody can take it seriously. Greece cannot afford to pay its debts, period.
The only way through is to default/restructure. Until that dawns on the mutants otherwise known as politicians then markets will tank IMO.
Much better to let Greece default and nationalise any retarded banks that messed up again. No bailouts this time. Wipe out shareholders and bondholders. Just guarantee deposits.
Sure there will be carnage. But once the dust settles all the uncertainty will be gone. No more cans kicked down the road.
Of course collateral dammage will be such that governments wont countenance that outcome.
Basically until Greece defaults markets will be shorting europe. Its already failed, its a zombie that doesnt realise its dead.

Of course this post represents a completely factual view based on hallucinogens YMMV biggrin

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

248 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
ringram said:
Some dude spouting about Elliot Wave theory etc.
So best to do the opposite?

ringram

14,700 posts

254 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
Yeah, Im already all in.. did it last week.
Long term things look good. Much more global possibilities with India and China coming on stream. Just some rocky roads in the short term.
Currently short on the euro as well though..

Fittster

20,120 posts

219 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
ringram said:
Much more global possibilities with India and China coming on stream.
So why not invest in India or China instead of the FTSE?

Maxf

8,420 posts

247 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
I'm out of everything except a small FTSE income fund and a gold ETF. We've only had a rocky couple of weeks and there is (IMO) a lot more bad news and nervousness to come.

Fear and greed drive the markets and there is more fear to come IMO.

matsmith

1,166 posts

215 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
ringram said:
Some dude spouting about Elliot Wave theory etc.
hehe that would be me I presume

fido

17,197 posts

261 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
I'm looking at yields on some income funds (mostly FTSE 30) and they are looking good .. >7% yield .. still 40% above the 2008/9 low but it wouldn't be the worst time to buy, me thinks.

Legend83

Original Poster:

10,129 posts

228 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
I put a little sum into a FTSE tracker this morning - long-term view is good.

My other funds are getting a pounding at the moment.

Beardy10

23,618 posts

181 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
fido said:
I'm looking at yields on some income funds (mostly FTSE 30) and they are looking good .. >7% yield .. still 40% above the 2008/9 low but it wouldn't be the worst time to buy, me thinks.
Shares paying a high income can be a good defensive measure but don't expect them to perform well in a bull market.....stock markets pay multiples for earnings growth and that is where you make the real money. Stock's that pay big dividends are generally mature businesses with sub par growth prospects and management teams that have run out of ideas with what to do with the money. I used to work with a guy that always bought Lloyds shares when they reached a 7 or 8% yield.....that was a mature business that couldn't grow in the markets it knew (because of competition rules) and didn't want to expand so it paid big dividends....

ringram

14,700 posts

254 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
matsmith said:
ringram said:
Some dude spouting about Elliot Wave theory etc.
hehe that would be me I presume
Not sure, I think I read it on pragcap.com or seekingalpha actually. Unless you posted it there smile

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

248 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
Beardy10 said:
fido said:
I'm looking at yields on some income funds (mostly FTSE 30) and they are looking good .. >7% yield .. still 40% above the 2008/9 low but it wouldn't be the worst time to buy, me thinks.
Shares paying a high income can be a good defensive measure but don't expect them to perform well in a bull market.....stock markets pay multiples for earnings growth and that is where you make the real money.
Can you point me in the direction of some literature please

Beardy10

23,618 posts

181 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
Beardy10 said:
fido said:
I'm looking at yields on some income funds (mostly FTSE 30) and they are looking good .. >7% yield .. still 40% above the 2008/9 low but it wouldn't be the worst time to buy, me thinks.
Shares paying a high income can be a good defensive measure but don't expect them to perform well in a bull market.....stock markets pay multiples for earnings growth and that is where you make the real money.
Can you point me in the direction of some literature please
Sure

http://shakespeare.mit.edu/

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

248 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
Beardy10 said:
NoelWatson said:
Beardy10 said:
fido said:
I'm looking at yields on some income funds (mostly FTSE 30) and they are looking good .. >7% yield .. still 40% above the 2008/9 low but it wouldn't be the worst time to buy, me thinks.
Shares paying a high income can be a good defensive measure but don't expect them to perform well in a bull market.....stock markets pay multiples for earnings growth and that is where you make the real money.
Can you point me in the direction of some literature please
Sure

http://shakespeare.mit.edu/
Amusing. Was looking for something to back up your statement.

Legend83

Original Poster:

10,129 posts

228 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
Lloyds slipped 9% today. Gone in now for the long-haul....

ringram

14,700 posts

254 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
Always good to have a long view on things.

Beardy10

23,618 posts

181 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
Beardy10 said:
NoelWatson said:
Beardy10 said:
fido said:
I'm looking at yields on some income funds (mostly FTSE 30) and they are looking good .. >7% yield .. still 40% above the 2008/9 low but it wouldn't be the worst time to buy, me thinks.
Shares paying a high income can be a good defensive measure but don't expect them to perform well in a bull market.....stock markets pay multiples for earnings growth and that is where you make the real money.
Can you point me in the direction of some literature please
Sure

http://shakespeare.mit.edu/
Amusing. Was looking for something to back up your statement.
Here's a link to an article I just found Googling......from The Independent in 2001. If you actually THINK about it it's fairly obvious....companies with good growth prospects and thus high earnings multiples will want to reinvest that money in the business because they will be able to give shareholders much better returns through growth (either organic or aquisition led) than by paying them a dividend of say 5 or 6%.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment...









NoelWatson

11,710 posts

248 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
Beardy10 said:
NoelWatson said:
Beardy10 said:
NoelWatson said:
Beardy10 said:
fido said:
I'm looking at yields on some income funds (mostly FTSE 30) and they are looking good .. >7% yield .. still 40% above the 2008/9 low but it wouldn't be the worst time to buy, me thinks.
Shares paying a high income can be a good defensive measure but don't expect them to perform well in a bull market.....stock markets pay multiples for earnings growth and that is where you make the real money.
Can you point me in the direction of some literature please
Sure

http://shakespeare.mit.edu/
Amusing. Was looking for something to back up your statement.
Here's a link to an article I just found Googling......from The Independent in 2001. If you actually THINK about it it's fairly obvious....companies with good growth prospects and thus high earnings multiples will want to reinvest that money in the business because they will be able to give shareholders much better returns through growth (either organic or aquisition led) than by paying them a dividend of say 5 or 6%.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment...
Thanks. What I'm really looking for is some backtesting. I will do some digging around. Some people prefer companies to return money to investors rather than do other things with it.

Maxf

8,420 posts

247 months

Tuesday 25th May 2010
quotequote all
musclecarmad said:
who knows guys, it's down again today.

I wouldn't be putting money in at the moment but I just can't see the upside.

say if the ftse is at 5,000 what is the chance of it hitting 6000 anytime soon? i'd say very slim so there isn't even 20% upside potential for many years, people are talking of it not hitting 6000 for 20 years now.

if it's at 5,000 I think the chance of it falling to 4000 or even 3500 is believable so i'm not in.

If it got to 3500 i could see some potential upside on my money.

Fairly simplistic but it's how buffett describes things.
Thats exactly my thinking. The potential downside/risk seems to outweight the potential upside/reward - at the moment, anyway.