Is the turnaround in sight?
Discussion
Over the past twenty-four hours some financial commentators have been flirting with the idea that we are at the bottom of the recession and a recovery is about to start.
Obviously these guys (analyst at Schroeders on Newsnight yesterday and columnist in City A.M. this morning) have a vested interest in being bullish, but they cite a(n admittedly extremely short term in a volatile market) 200 point rise in the FTSE last week and a promising first quarter for several banks as indicators.
I was wondering what the varied people who mingle in this forum hold as their estimate for when the turnaround will begin. I believe the CBI state late summer 2010 at the earliest?
Obviously these guys (analyst at Schroeders on Newsnight yesterday and columnist in City A.M. this morning) have a vested interest in being bullish, but they cite a(n admittedly extremely short term in a volatile market) 200 point rise in the FTSE last week and a promising first quarter for several banks as indicators.
I was wondering what the varied people who mingle in this forum hold as their estimate for when the turnaround will begin. I believe the CBI state late summer 2010 at the earliest?
youngsyr said:
Over the past twenty-four hours some financial commentators have been flirting with the idea that we are at the bottom of the recession and a recovery is about to start.
Obviously these guys (analyst at Schroeders on Newsnight yesterday and columnist in City A.M. this morning) have a vested interest in being bullish, but they cite a(n admittedly extremely short term in a volatile market) 200 point rise in the FTSE last week and a promising first quarter for several banks as indicators.
I was wondering what the varied people who mingle in this forum hold as their estimate for when the turnaround will begin. I believe the CBI state late summer 2010 at the earliest?
Why would you think city analysts would have bested interests in being bullish? There are plenty that make money on being bearish.Obviously these guys (analyst at Schroeders on Newsnight yesterday and columnist in City A.M. this morning) have a vested interest in being bullish, but they cite a(n admittedly extremely short term in a volatile market) 200 point rise in the FTSE last week and a promising first quarter for several banks as indicators.
I was wondering what the varied people who mingle in this forum hold as their estimate for when the turnaround will begin. I believe the CBI state late summer 2010 at the earliest?
And define the bottom of a recession.
Is it when the rate of decline reduces? Which will produce an upturn in a graph showing year-on-year GDP growth.
Or is it when the actual decline ends and growth resumes? Shown as an uptick on a graph of actual GDP.
hope it is...
We had a contractor in last week who creates signage for big national companies pizza hut ect ect.
He recknons businesses are starting to see the credit crunch as media propoganda/crap. Apparently a lot of orders that were put on hold are now finally going through to the planning lets go stage.
Hopefully things will get better (fingers crossed)
Dave
We had a contractor in last week who creates signage for big national companies pizza hut ect ect.
He recknons businesses are starting to see the credit crunch as media propoganda/crap. Apparently a lot of orders that were put on hold are now finally going through to the planning lets go stage.
Hopefully things will get better (fingers crossed)
Dave
I agree with the OP's view that the end is in sight.
It must be, I went the whole of yesterday and didn't hear a single reference to 'Recession', 'Economic Downturn', 'Credit Crunch', 'The end of the f
king world' etc.
That's my opinion and I have absolutely no experience in the financial sector so you know it's true.
It must be, I went the whole of yesterday and didn't hear a single reference to 'Recession', 'Economic Downturn', 'Credit Crunch', 'The end of the f
king world' etc.That's my opinion and I have absolutely no experience in the financial sector so you know it's true.
David87M3 said:
hope it is...
He recknons businesses are starting to see the credit crunch as media propoganda/crap.
Dave
I heard this as well. Apparently Lehman/Bear didn't go under, and the bank losses were actually a wind up concocted by Ben and GW after a night on the absinthe. They certainly had me fooled for a while, but have now come clean to their dubious joke.He recknons businesses are starting to see the credit crunch as media propoganda/crap.
Dave
The problem these days, with 24hr news, instant messaging, emails etc, is we all expect every thing to happen NOW! People have such a short attention span and expect to the World to change the minute they lose focus. The News broadcasters will jump on a story as it is fresh and "news" as opposed to old and what they reported yesterday. Some things in this world take their own time regardless of how stale the story becomes.
RJDM3 said:
Not a chance, the end is not in sight by a long shot.
But they want you to think so,. so they can try and take some more of your hard earned money...all Spin
The whole thing is spin.But they want you to think so,. so they can try and take some more of your hard earned money...all Spin
The problem with stocks, bonds and finance generally is the whole market is based on everybody behaving themselves and not rocking the boat. Buying and selling is based on prediction and hearsay.
Banks and companies just need the confidence to start splashing the cash again.
I'm not playing anymore, the recession makes me sad
ETA spelling
Edited by M3CHA-MONK3Y on Tuesday 17th March 09:53
For the record, I don't consider myself to be anywhere near qualified to have even a half-assed attempt at predicting when the turnaround will come, but for those who say "Not for a long time yet", what are you basing your opinion on?
What factors are you looking for that would indicate that the turnaround has begun?
What factors are you looking for that would indicate that the turnaround has begun?
NoelWatson said:
David87M3 said:
hope it is...
He recknons businesses are starting to see the credit crunch as media propoganda/crap.
Dave
I heard this as well. Apparently Lehman/Bear didn't go under, and the bank losses were actually a wind up concocted by Ben and GW after a night on the absinthe. They certainly had me fooled for a while, but have now come clean to their dubious joke.He recknons businesses are starting to see the credit crunch as media propoganda/crap.
Dave
We know all that happened. What he said was news stories make things a whole lot worse than the actually are and people are seeing thru that and trying to turn things round. You did exactly what a typical news team does with your quote of my post "cherry pick parts out" and not read the full story... I work with journo's every day
Dave
Edited by David87M3 on Tuesday 17th March 10:05
youngsyr said:
but for those who say "Not for a long time yet", what are you basing your opinion on?
A forlorn hope that they can buy a house for 50p in a few years time, having never previously bought one before because they Apart from Noel, who is just bearish.
youngsyr said:
For the record, I don't consider myself to be anywhere near qualified to have even a half-assed attempt at predicting when the turnaround will come, but for those who say "Not for a long time yet", what are you basing your opinion on?
What factors are you looking for that would indicate that the turnaround has begun?
I would look at the USWhat factors are you looking for that would indicate that the turnaround has begun?
e.g.
GDP
Unemployment
Case Shiller housing numbers
I don't see why a recession cannot be viewed in the same manner as a berievement, insomuch as I think it is fair to apply the 5 Stages of Grief:
1 - Denial
Denial is a conscious or unconscious refusal to accept facts, information, reality, etc., relating to the situation concerned. It's a defence mechanism and perfectly natural. Some people can become locked in this stage when dealing with a traumatic change that can be ignored. Death of course is not particularly easy to avoid or evade indefinitely.
2 - Anger
Anger can manifest in different ways. People dealing with emotional upset can be angry with themselves, and/or with others, especially those close to them. Knowing this helps keep detached and non-judgemental when experiencing the anger of someone who is very upset.
3 - Bargaining
Traditionally the bargaining stage for people facing death can involve attempting to bargain with whatever God the person believes in. People facing less serious trauma can bargain or seek to negotiate a compromise. For example "Can we still be friends?.." when facing a break-up. Bargaining rarely provides a sustainable solution, especially if it's a matter of life or death.
4 - Depression
Also referred to as preparatory grieving. In a way it's the dress rehearsal or the practice run for the 'aftermath' although this stage means different things depending on whom it involves. It's a sort of acceptance with emotional attachment. It's natural to feel sadness and regret, fear, uncertainty, etc. It shows that the person has at least begun to accept the reality.
5 - Acceptance
Again this stage definitely varies according to the person's situation, although broadly it is an indication that there is some emotional detachment and objectivity. People dying can enter this stage a long time before the people they leave behind, who must necessarily pass through their own individual stages of dealing with the grief.
If this is the case then I would argue that we are, as a collective, at Stage 1.
Boom bust is a cyclical thing. Roughtly 7 years. We had a mini bust around 7 years ago but it was contained in the IT industry and other areas prevented it from being serious. Plus, massive Govt spending etc.
As someone has already pointed out, nowadays we expect everything instantly. For 15 years we've had growth and this means that an entire generation, maybe 2, has erroneous expectations that must be re-based. This takes time.
It takes time for those who are wiped out to re-build and for the memory of the last bust to fade enough for them to be part of the next boom thinking. It takes time for the next generation to appear on the scene with their bullish youthful views that offset the older bears.
Add to this natural process the fact that we are now so massively in debt that UK taxation has to go through the roof as soon as there is the slightest sign of growth and I do suspect that while we may see stability appearing this time next year we have to be looking at a very long period of stagnation.
I still expect huge changes in the highstreet, much more unemployment, massive increases in social unrest etc. None of this has really started to appear, which to me means we are still at the very beginning of this phase.
1 - Denial
Denial is a conscious or unconscious refusal to accept facts, information, reality, etc., relating to the situation concerned. It's a defence mechanism and perfectly natural. Some people can become locked in this stage when dealing with a traumatic change that can be ignored. Death of course is not particularly easy to avoid or evade indefinitely.
2 - Anger
Anger can manifest in different ways. People dealing with emotional upset can be angry with themselves, and/or with others, especially those close to them. Knowing this helps keep detached and non-judgemental when experiencing the anger of someone who is very upset.
3 - Bargaining
Traditionally the bargaining stage for people facing death can involve attempting to bargain with whatever God the person believes in. People facing less serious trauma can bargain or seek to negotiate a compromise. For example "Can we still be friends?.." when facing a break-up. Bargaining rarely provides a sustainable solution, especially if it's a matter of life or death.
4 - Depression
Also referred to as preparatory grieving. In a way it's the dress rehearsal or the practice run for the 'aftermath' although this stage means different things depending on whom it involves. It's a sort of acceptance with emotional attachment. It's natural to feel sadness and regret, fear, uncertainty, etc. It shows that the person has at least begun to accept the reality.
5 - Acceptance
Again this stage definitely varies according to the person's situation, although broadly it is an indication that there is some emotional detachment and objectivity. People dying can enter this stage a long time before the people they leave behind, who must necessarily pass through their own individual stages of dealing with the grief.
If this is the case then I would argue that we are, as a collective, at Stage 1.
Boom bust is a cyclical thing. Roughtly 7 years. We had a mini bust around 7 years ago but it was contained in the IT industry and other areas prevented it from being serious. Plus, massive Govt spending etc.
As someone has already pointed out, nowadays we expect everything instantly. For 15 years we've had growth and this means that an entire generation, maybe 2, has erroneous expectations that must be re-based. This takes time.
It takes time for those who are wiped out to re-build and for the memory of the last bust to fade enough for them to be part of the next boom thinking. It takes time for the next generation to appear on the scene with their bullish youthful views that offset the older bears.
Add to this natural process the fact that we are now so massively in debt that UK taxation has to go through the roof as soon as there is the slightest sign of growth and I do suspect that while we may see stability appearing this time next year we have to be looking at a very long period of stagnation.
I still expect huge changes in the highstreet, much more unemployment, massive increases in social unrest etc. None of this has really started to appear, which to me means we are still at the very beginning of this phase.
Edited by Horse_Apple on Tuesday 17th March 10:39
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