How far will house prices fall? [Volume 2]
Discussion
okay lets throw in some figures.
I'm saying we're about to do a "Japan"
So that'll be around 20% nominal falls, and 60% inflation adjusted falls over the next decade.
Btw.....if that sounds insane....it would take 3 years of falling prices....down 20% (so @ 7% yoy )....followed by 5 years of stagnation with RPI running at 5% to do the above.
Oh and by 2015 the £ won't be worth more than bog-roll per sheet. Actually we'll have Euros by then so who cares really.
I'm saying we're about to do a "Japan"
So that'll be around 20% nominal falls, and 60% inflation adjusted falls over the next decade.
Btw.....if that sounds insane....it would take 3 years of falling prices....down 20% (so @ 7% yoy )....followed by 5 years of stagnation with RPI running at 5% to do the above.
Oh and by 2015 the £ won't be worth more than bog-roll per sheet. Actually we'll have Euros by then so who cares really.
Edited by Timmy33 on Tuesday 15th April 11:15
Timmy33 said:
Oh and by 2015 the £ won't be worth more than bog-roll per sheet. Actually we'll have Euros by then so who cares really.
Bit off topic, but this prophecy worries me slightly with regards to savings. Is it worth putting a proportion of savings into euros? If so, what's the easiest way of doing this? Are the government's index-linked certificates also worth a shot (I'm guessing yes)? http://www.nsandi.com/products/ilsc/index.jsp Up to £15k tax free at a guaranteed inflation-beating rate.
Edited by AllTorque on Tuesday 15th April 11:21
Timmy33 said:
okay lets throw in some figures.
I'm saying we're about to do a "Japan"
So that'll be around 20% nominal falls, and 60% inflation adjusted falls over the next decade.
Btw.....if that sounds insane....it would take 3 years of falling prices....down 20% (so @ 7% yoy )....followed by 5 years of stagnation with RPI running at 5% to do the above.
Oh and by 2015 the £ won't be worth more than bog-roll per sheet. Actually we'll have Euros by then so who cares really.
Not massively different from what punters are predicting on the TFS exchangeI'm saying we're about to do a "Japan"
So that'll be around 20% nominal falls, and 60% inflation adjusted falls over the next decade.
Btw.....if that sounds insane....it would take 3 years of falling prices....down 20% (so @ 7% yoy )....followed by 5 years of stagnation with RPI running at 5% to do the above.
Oh and by 2015 the £ won't be worth more than bog-roll per sheet. Actually we'll have Euros by then so who cares really.
Edited by Timmy33 on Tuesday 15th April 11:15
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/mp...
"will today reveal that the derivatives market is now pricing in falls in house prices for the next three years. The cost of futures contracts linked to house prices suggests the value of the average home will not rise back above its current level until 2018."
AllTorque said:
Timmy33 said:
Oh and by 2015 the £ won't be worth more than bog-roll per sheet. Actually we'll have Euros by then so who cares really.
Bit off topic, but this prophecy worries me slightly with regards to savings. Is it worth putting a proportion of savings into euros? If so, what's the easiest way of doing this? Are the government's index-linked certificates also worth a shot (I'm guessing yes)? http://www.nsandi.com/products/ilsc/index.jsp Up to £15k tax free at a guaranteed inflation-beating rate.
Edited by AllTorque on Tuesday 15th April 11:21
GoldenBoy said:
if all you are worried about is preserving purchasing power long term, and not out for a quick buck, buy gold, silver, palladium and platinum coins and stick them under the floor boards, this is the best financial advice you will ever get
What are doing, going into burglary as a sideline?GoldenBoy said:
AllTorque said:
Timmy33 said:
Oh and by 2015 the £ won't be worth more than bog-roll per sheet. Actually we'll have Euros by then so who cares really.
Bit off topic, but this prophecy worries me slightly with regards to savings. Is it worth putting a proportion of savings into euros? If so, what's the easiest way of doing this? Are the government's index-linked certificates also worth a shot (I'm guessing yes)? http://www.nsandi.com/products/ilsc/index.jsp Up to £15k tax free at a guaranteed inflation-beating rate.
Edited by AllTorque on Tuesday 15th April 11:21
GoldenBoy said:
mickken said:
GoldenBoy said:
savings will just be eroded over the next few years by inflation, interest rates need to be 8%+ to even begin to bring back sustainable purchasing power to the £
Saied said:
For the year 2008 as a whole, January to December, I say -6% average for the UK.
Real prices obviously a few % points more.
We are half way there already (seasonally adjusted). The exchanges are pricing in ~10% over the year which is pretty bad considering the market only went down 12% in last downturn.Real prices obviously a few % points more.
Non too sure. Depends on how quickly the credit crunch recovers. There is plenty of latent demand in the market, so if the banks are able to offer more mortgages in the near future it may not go down so much. (ignoring inflation).
IIRC from reading the Sunday papers, it took about 9-12 months last time there was a credit squeeze for the markets to recover, its been 7 months already. With the Fed pumping gazillions in, China buying big chunks of BP (and thus pushing more money into the markets), the ECB pumping lots in and the BoE doing a little bit there maybe a more rapid recovery in the mortgage market than we think.
IIRC from reading the Sunday papers, it took about 9-12 months last time there was a credit squeeze for the markets to recover, its been 7 months already. With the Fed pumping gazillions in, China buying big chunks of BP (and thus pushing more money into the markets), the ECB pumping lots in and the BoE doing a little bit there maybe a more rapid recovery in the mortgage market than we think.
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