Why do the 'experts' tell us nonsense about inflation?
Discussion
Governments prefer use to use the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as a measure of UK inflation and also the basis for increasing welfare benefits.
Interesting then, that they still use the Retail Price Index (RPI), for taxes and various other incoming payments.
Lower figures for payments. Higher figures for receipts. How convenient.
Another annoying aspect, is when a reduced rate of inflation increase is announced, which happened this month.
These are the official governments reasons, for the April 2026 reduction;
'Key Drivers of the Inflation Drop
Lower Utility Bills:
Slower Food Price Increases:
Travel and Leisure Costs:
Other Regulated Costs.'
Those aspects might have been factors, but are far from the main reason.
Whether the people lecturing us, just try to appear good, or are simply ignorant about how annual percenctage changes are calculated, I don't know.
When CPI was introduced, I continued to follow RPI figures, so using those, here is the reality.
In April 2025 there was a one month inflationary jump of 1.7%.
An exceptionally high figure at that time
The latest figure (April 2026) the monthly increase was +0.7%.
A fairly normal monthly increase for the present time.
Dec 2025 = + 0.7%
Jan 2026 = - 0.5%
Feb 2026 = + 0.4%
Mar 2026 = + 0.8%
Apr 2026 = + 0.7%
The key aspect here, is that very high figure (+1.7%) 12 months ago, drops entirely out of the April 2026 calculation. That big jump is removed, therefore reducing the new 12 month figure.
That is by far the main reason for the reduction in the April 2026 inflation reduction.
Who would have thought the government is not telling us the truth.
Perhaps they could pass a law banning inflation... and then if inflation happens they can fine it which will make money for the Treasury so they can cut taxes so people will be better off so they can spend more and that will get the economy going and create growth.
Sorted. I think I'll take the afternoon off
Sorted. I think I'll take the afternoon off
Simpo Two said:
Perhaps they could pass a law banning inflation... and then if inflation happens they can fine it which will make money for the Treasury so they can cut taxes so people will be better off so they can spend more and that will get the economy going and create growth.
Sorted. I think I'll take the afternoon off
Sorted. I think I'll take the afternoon off
Maybe you can chuck your hat in the ring for the forthcoming challenge ?
Simpo Two said:
Perhaps they could pass a law banning inflation... and then if inflation happens they can fine it which will make money for the Treasury so they can cut taxes so people will be better off so they can spend more and that will get the economy going and create growth.
Sorted. I think I'll take the afternoon off
Which one of the 400 are you? Or are you 401, the saviour from the North?!Sorted. I think I'll take the afternoon off
Simpo Two said:
Perhaps they could pass a law banning inflation... and then if inflation happens they can fine it which will make money for the Treasury so they can cut taxes so people will be better off so they can spend more and that will get the economy going and create growth.
Sorted. I think I'll take the afternoon off
Sorted. I think I'll take the afternoon off
Brilliant.
Rachel from Accounts is probably not bright enough to understand your concept though.
Governments do like inflation.
They can borrow real money (issue gilts), then in 30 years time or more, pay back in devalued Micky Mouse money.
Similar to us regarding mortgages. That 25% inflation (was it) in the 1980s, helped enormously, but only if safe employment continued.
There was a gilt (something popular now with 70/30 and 80/20 fund investors, who believe they are safe) named War Loan 5%.
It was issued during the First World War, sold on the patriotic ticket.
Some would have bought £100 worth (then enough for a small terraced house).
In about 1930, the government renaged on the deal and reduced the interest rate to 3.5%.
After the 2008 crash, when interest rates were far below 3.5%, it was sensible for the government to redeem that gilt.
They honoured the repayment of £100 (then enough for a few groceries, not a small terraced house).
The gov has to have a load of minions running around fulltime trying to mislead you because most of the inflation is down to their policies.
Money printing - literary direct inflation of the number of monetary tokens in the system. There's a bit of a lag as the market adjusts, hence they use daft products to mask or downplay the effect.
The benefits bill from the other thread. Loads of excess cash floating around without any associated productivity. Only goes to consumption, raising prices further.
Daft energy policies making everything cost more.
All the other daft policies shrinking productivity, ultimately devaluing the pound even further.
Money printing - literary direct inflation of the number of monetary tokens in the system. There's a bit of a lag as the market adjusts, hence they use daft products to mask or downplay the effect.
The benefits bill from the other thread. Loads of excess cash floating around without any associated productivity. Only goes to consumption, raising prices further.
Daft energy policies making everything cost more.
All the other daft policies shrinking productivity, ultimately devaluing the pound even further.
There are loads of different measures of inflation. There isn't one that is right and others that are wrong. You pick the measure that is best suited to the question you're trying to answer. Are you looking at the impact on consumers? Yes? Then you choose CPI (or maybe RPI). If you want to include housing costs then you don't use the version that actively excludes those costs, but you then need to remember that comparing that rate of inflation to interest rates is complicated by the fact that interest rates are a big part of that measure's basket of goods and services. If you're looking at manufacturing, you use PPI. If you are looking at the macro economy, you use.the GDP deflator. Etc, etc.
Do politicians talk b
ks about inflation? Yes. Do many members of the general public? Yes. Do economists and central bankers talk bks about inflation? Not so much. They are at least trying to be honest and also understand what they're talking about.
Do politicians talk b
ks about inflation? Yes. Do many members of the general public? Yes. Do economists and central bankers talk bks about inflation? Not so much. They are at least trying to be honest and also understand what they're talking about.Yeah, but all those methods are misleading.
If you want to know the true inflation rate, you need to start by adding Employers NI to your salary, then revalue your numbers to take account of your change in take-home when the tax rates change.
Then factor in your wage inflation, before you start looking at your spending.
Everyone has a different basket of goods, but we also have a split between things we have to buy and things we buy with whatever money is left over.
Some inflation is absorbed by reduced quality of life, so you have a basic inflation rate if your interested in how badly the government are fking you over and a more complicated rate if you take into account your change in behaviour as your basket of purchases skews towards the essentials.
There's a reason the Government doesn't present inflation is a way that's useful.
If you want to know the true inflation rate, you need to start by adding Employers NI to your salary, then revalue your numbers to take account of your change in take-home when the tax rates change.
Then factor in your wage inflation, before you start looking at your spending.
Everyone has a different basket of goods, but we also have a split between things we have to buy and things we buy with whatever money is left over.
Some inflation is absorbed by reduced quality of life, so you have a basic inflation rate if your interested in how badly the government are f
king you over and a more complicated rate if you take into account your change in behaviour as your basket of purchases skews towards the essentials. There's a reason the Government doesn't present inflation is a way that's useful.
Jon39 said:
There was a gilt (something popular now with 70/30 and 80/20 fund investors, who believe they are safe) named War Loan 5%.
It was issued during the First World War, sold on the patriotic ticket.
Some would have bought £100 worth (then enough for a small terraced house).
In about 1930, the government renaged on the deal and reduced the interest rate to 3.5%.
After the 2008 crash, when interest rates were far below 3.5%, it was sensible for the government to redeem that gilt.
They honoured the repayment of £100 (then enough for a few groceries, not a small terraced house).
My mother inherited some War Loans; we went to see an IFA about 25 years ago and the first thing he said was 'sell them'.It was issued during the First World War, sold on the patriotic ticket.
Some would have bought £100 worth (then enough for a small terraced house).
In about 1930, the government renaged on the deal and reduced the interest rate to 3.5%.
After the 2008 crash, when interest rates were far below 3.5%, it was sensible for the government to redeem that gilt.
They honoured the repayment of £100 (then enough for a few groceries, not a small terraced house).
The UK did however manage to pay back the US all the billions for Lend Lease.
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