OpenAi IPO. Anyone going to buy?

[CSR Performance]

I thought about it for a while, but I'm not sure I like the long term outlook. Seems to be widely accepted that its probably 2030 before it's profitable and I can't help thinking the sector is far too dynamic for anyone to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years.

[Panamax]

How about Space-X to test your risk appetite?

"We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon, Mars, and beyond," the company said in its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

SpaceX generated $4.69 billion in revenue in the first quarter and posted a loss of almost as much, or nearly $4.28 billion. For all of 2025, the company pulled in $18.67 billion in revenue, and turned a loss of $4.94 billion.

[boyse7en]

Well, one of the AI companies is going to be huge success and your invest will return 10000% in 10 years time... Pretty much all the others you will lose everything. The only issue is that we have no idea which one is going to break through and be the next Google, rather than Altavista

[NickZ24]

boyse7en said:

Well, one of the AI companies is going to be huge success and your invest will return 10000% in 10 years time... Pretty much all the others you will lose everything. The only issue is that we have no idea which one is going to break through and be the next Google, rather than Altavista

Or loose all when the bubble burst.

economist said:

Mr Pichai noted at the conference that some companies are already blowing through their annual token budgets and it s only May. Consumers are not tokenmaxxing to anything like the same extent. But the more they use agents, the more providers of AI will need to come up with novel ways to make money from them.

original: https://www.economist.com/business/2026/05/20/goog...
https://archive.is/F31mN

So companies are spending while consumers retreat.

[CSR Performance]

Panamax said:

How about Space-X to test your risk appetite?

Another interesting one. I suspect it's going to follow a similar trajectory, although unlike the world of AI, I don't really see SpaceX having much tangible competition and could well be the sole player in a few years time.

[Julia121]

Not for me. If Donald Trump could be relied on not to change his mind every 20 minutes then I may have shown more interest.

[Mr Penguin]

I will probably put a small amount in. It's probably going to return absolutely nothing and disappear but if it survives will make many times the initial investment, with no chance of anything in between. So should be a fun investment with an amount I can afford to lose.

[JoshSm]

It might turn out OK, or it might turn out that the hype dies and a money incinerator in a high completion market with no real moat, run by idiots and liars, might not be a great thing to get into.

It's firmly in bubble valuations already so likely the only way to really cash in on the IPO is to be an insider getting out.

[Puzzles]

I’ll be avoiding spacex and open ai

[BobToc]

Valuations are very high, but Anthropic going from $10bn or ARR in Dec ‘25 to $30bn ARR in March ‘26 is completely insane. I’m afraid I’m in the “someone is going to win here, and win big” camp.

[asfault]

Re space x I bought rocket lab a while ago. Need to decide whether to sell before space x ipo,
Just after
Or hold

As always it will seem obvious one the event had passed.

[nordboy]

Puzzles said:

I ll be avoiding spacex and open ai

I'm going to have a dabble in SPCX when it lists, more for sts and giggles than anything else. I'll only be investing a small amount.

[BobToc]

If I was in the US I'd for sure try and get a couple of grand allocation in the IPO. Despite the enormous free float it has massive potential to pop from an already quite mad valuation. Not so sure I want to be buying in the secondary and in any event will own more than enough through VWRD.

[Matthen]

BobToc said:

Valuations are very high, but Anthropic going from $10bn or ARR in Dec 25 to $30bn ARR in March 26 is completely insane. I m afraid I m in the someone is going to win here, and win big camp.

Anthropic is where I'd put my money. I'm not convinced OpenAI can remain a going concern, unless their models improve - everyone I work with rates Claude; CoPilot/GPT is very much meh.

OpenAI have got a lot of datacentre to pay for.

[DukeDickson]

Matthen said:

BobToc said:

Valuations are very high, but Anthropic going from $10bn or ARR in Dec 25 to $30bn ARR in March 26 is completely insane. I m afraid I m in the someone is going to win here, and win big camp.

Anthropic is where I'd put my money. I'm not convinced OpenAI can remain a going concern, unless their models improve - everyone I work with rates Claude; CoPilot/GPT is very much meh.

OpenAI have got a lot of datacentre to pay for.

You think Anthropic is any different? It isn't really, just slightly differently gobby, just as spendy, but does look enthusiastically at the future, as well as recent convenient recent history as much as the others. They also have almost as much of a serious enthusiasm for burning other people's $100 bills like they're going out of circulation.

Sad part is that thanks to some convenient rule bending, they will be able to steal money from lots of passive investors who have no idea. They will be pushed on the market & anyone with a market tracker investment will have to swallow the pill.

SpaceAXIwtterla

https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI?si=EslRBiwvh1NSW-iz

Edited by DukeDickson on Saturday 23 May 02:07

[birdcage]

Buy shares in an overpriced loss making company when day one will be like the Swatch Audermars collab with every retail investor queuing round the block to buy it.

No.

It could ironically actually be the catalyst for a correction.

Would be interested to see the share price two weeks after the float and i don't think it will be higher.

[BobToc]

Matthen said:

BobToc said:

Valuations are very high, but Anthropic going from $10bn or ARR in Dec 25 to $30bn ARR in March 26 is completely insane. I m afraid I m in the someone is going to win here, and win big camp.

Anthropic is where I'd put my money. I'm not convinced OpenAI can remain a going concern, unless their models improve - everyone I work with rates Claude; CoPilot/GPT is very much meh.

OpenAI have got a lot of datacentre to pay for.

The only thing that gives me pause is that 18 months ago it was generally accepted that OpenAI was the undisputed winner. Now Anthropic is generally considered the undisputed winner. I’m not quite ready to rule OpenAI out and they’re getting their act together a bit. But I’m almost exclusively an Anthropic user.

Anthropic’s training cost advantage is very interesting.

[JoshSm]

BobToc said:

Matthen said:

BobToc said:

Valuations are very high, but Anthropic going from $10bn or ARR in Dec 25 to $30bn ARR in March 26 is completely insane. I m afraid I m in the someone is going to win here, and win big camp.

Anthropic is where I'd put my money. I'm not convinced OpenAI can remain a going concern, unless their models improve - everyone I work with rates Claude; CoPilot/GPT is very much meh.

OpenAI have got a lot of datacentre to pay for.

The only thing that gives me pause is that 18 months ago it was generally accepted that OpenAI was the undisputed winner. Now Anthropic is generally considered the undisputed winner. I m not quite ready to rule OpenAI out and they re getting their act together a bit. But I m almost exclusively an Anthropic user.

Anthropic s training cost advantage is very interesting.

This was an interesting side note: https://x.ai/news/anthropic-compute-partnership

Reading between the lines Anthropic are capacity contrained to the point they'd do anything to avoid being so as it nobbles their IPO (price inreases/performance dropoff still showing theyre in trouble) and that despite the looming IPO SpaceX doesn't have the money/demand themselves for that resource eg. from Grok.

All the valuations are already built on top of future expectations not current performance, and none of these businesses is healthy or has any guarantee of where they'll be in 6/12/18 months, so if you do buy in where are the returns coming from? All you're doing is giving gains to someone who already inflated the price.

Edited by JoshSm on Saturday 23 May 13:42