Good world tracker investment advice video

[Ari]

Quite some time ago in a thread about investment, someone posted up a really good video by somebody explaining that, as an amateur investor, you have no real chance of out performing professionals with their information, knowledge and skills, and that it's important to recognise that and instead 'bet' on the whole market by investing in a World Tracker fund. It was really well explained (much better than I've just done).

I'm hoping someone might know which video that was? I've just had a search on YouTube but can't see it.

Much appreciated if anyone happens to know which it was (I appreciate thee's probably loads, but there was one particular one that was really good).

[FredAstaire]

could be this maybe?

https://www.kroijer.com/

[Ari]

That is exactly it, thank you!

[LeoSayer]

As well as Lars Kroijer, these channels have some compelling content on that topic:

https://www.youtube.com/@BenFelixCSI
https://www.youtube.com/@JamesShack

[Ari]

Brilliant, I'll take a look. Thank you!

[donaircooleone]

Also worth a look at Pension Craft with Ramin, excellent content and podcasts available.

[Panamax]

Regarding some of the exuberant claims for passive and criticism of active, recent data shows that, "As of mid-2025, roughly 30% of active funds outperformed their passive alternatives over a ten-year period." Taking that as a starting point, if you've got any sense you try to be in the better active funds and avoid the dogs, many of which are easy to spot, which should significantly improve your chances.

Bear in mind that if a particular active fund doesn't "beat the index" you may still be making a very handsome return. On the other hand if you follow the crowd the absolute certainty is you'll never beat the index and will, in fact, lag behind the index due to charges.

[Jon39]

Ari said:

Quite some time ago in a thread about investment, someone posted up a really good video by somebody explaining that, as an amateur investor, you have no real chance of out performing professionals with their information, knowledge and skills, and that it's important to recognise that and instead 'bet' on the whole market by investing in a World Tracker fund. It was really well explained (much better than I've just done).

Really?

'you have no real chance of out performing professionals with their information, knowledge and skills'
You have certainly been taken in by City image and marketing.

'As of early 2026, recent reports indicate that roughly 24% to 29% of actively managed investment funds have beaten their market index benchmarks over the long term (10 years).

So, 70% of 'professionals with their information, knowledge and skills' cannot beat a low-cost tracker fund.
Millions of private investors put their trust in these so called 'professionals', probably without knowing that they have only got a 30% chance of benefiting.
The City thrives on fees and a high number of transactions.

If professional pilots only had a 30% record of being able to land an aircraft safely, would you buy an airline ticket?

Your best action these days is to invest in low-cost tracker funds.
Perhaps choose more than one, because performance will vary.
I don't use funds because I was fortunate enough to invest in some good businesses, so have been able to achieve better results than the market average. Don't underestimate your own ability, because it certainly does not require a high IQ, but does need a calm temperament, a keen interest in how good businesses work, patience, common sense, logic and a little luck helps too.

Purely out of interest, I am compiling information about various index performances. One day I can post a chart, so we can then easily see what has been happening. My guess now is that the order of winners might be USA; World; UK and with Emerging Markets far behind. What will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, no one knows. Remember too, that many of the top FTSE 100 companies are not UK only, but are doing business all around the world. As one example, you could even become part owner of just one UK business, then instantly become an investor in 180 countries. And to think we have posters saying, don't invest in the UK, because the economy is fragile and there is no diversification.

Edited by Jon39 on Friday 6th February 12:56

[mikeiow]

Panamax said:

Regarding some of the exuberant claims for passive and criticism of active, recent data shows that, "As of mid-2025, roughly 30% of active funds outperformed their passive alternatives over a ten-year period." Taking that as a starting point, if you've got any sense you try to be in the better active funds and avoid the dogs, many of which are easy to spot, which should significantly improve your chances.

Bear in mind that if a particular active fund doesn't "beat the index" you may still be making a very handsome return. On the other hand if you follow the crowd the absolute certainty is you'll never beat the index and will, in fact, lag behind the index due to charges.

Ah, but the point Lars makes is that it *isn't* always easy to spot the good ones, & you are kind of saying you need to find the top 30% for the past year......& that might change next year.

I'm not saying I slavishly follow the kroijer.com system slavishly, but I do think he makes very good points!

eta - Jon is something of an exception: IIRC you pick your own stocks and have done marvellously well for years....but the bottom line is that most don't have time for that, & the low-cost passive tracker is likely better for most people over a number of years!

Edited by mikeiow on Friday 6th February 16:16

[okgo]

Add in some years and the number dwindles from 30 to almost 0. But they’ll still take their fee.

[C69]

Panamax said:

Regarding some of the exuberant claims for passive and criticism of active, recent data shows that, "As of mid-2025, roughly 30% of active funds outperformed their passive alternatives over a ten-year period." Taking that as a starting point, if you've got any sense you try to be in the better active funds and avoid the dogs, many of which are easy to spot, which should significantly improve your chances.

Bear in mind that if a particular active fund doesn't "beat the index" you may still be making a very handsome return. On the other hand if you follow the crowd the absolute certainty is you'll never beat the index and will, in fact, lag behind the index due to charges.

When looking for "the better active funds" many investors will probably place too much credence on past performance. Unfortunately, there have been plenty of star funds which became dogs over time. Indeed, I think that one of the skills required for holding active funds is recognising when it's time to bail out.

Also, it's worth remembering that one of the great benefits of passive index funds is that they can encourage people to switch from being savers to investors. Such complete novices are unlikely to have the aptitude or inclination to try to choose from a bewildering list of active funds.

[Simpo Two]

C69 said:

When looking for "the better active funds" many investors will probably place too much credence on past performance. Unfortunately, there have been plenty of star funds which became dogs over time. Indeed, I think that one of the skills required for holding active funds is recognising when it's time to bail out.

Of course in theory the fund managers you're paying are supposed to do that and switch stuff around so you don't have to...! But maybe they get fat and lazy.