Anyone got SMCI shares?
Discussion
dingg said:
Investigation finds something substantial, Lookoutbelow, finds nothing upupandaway.
Pays your money, feint heart never f@£&%( fair maiden
Yes I'd say that's about right.Pays your money, feint heart never f@£&%( fair maiden
Not sure what happens if they have done something deliberately illegal though, rather than just making an unintentional accounting error.
Can the stock be delisted or will they just get a fine and keep trading shares on the exchange.
Bit of an unusual situation and an important player.
Share price actually seems to be holding up quite well given the fuss this is causing.
Wiser minds than mine always talk about fundamentals when it comes to value.
SMCI is still selling scarce, in demand and very profitable products to the tune of $bns/qtr so it’s hard to see how they could be delisted or disappear to zero value.
Hope so anyway as I know they are a notable part of one of my pension funds
SMCI is still selling scarce, in demand and very profitable products to the tune of $bns/qtr so it’s hard to see how they could be delisted or disappear to zero value.
Hope so anyway as I know they are a notable part of one of my pension funds
And the answer is ................
Share price down on split price, SMCI having to pay back 50% ($250,000,000) of bank loans, 10-K filing delayed until end of November.
It's quacking.
It's walking like a duck.
Never seen anything like this.
WTF is actually going on?
Where's DA when you need him.
Lot of people have SMCI doing a significant amount of lifting in their portfolios, plus they are a big part of the AI boom.
If they go pop there's going to be a lot of collateral damage.
Opinions?
Share price down on split price, SMCI having to pay back 50% ($250,000,000) of bank loans, 10-K filing delayed until end of November.
It's quacking.
It's walking like a duck.
Never seen anything like this.
WTF is actually going on?
Where's DA when you need him.
Lot of people have SMCI doing a significant amount of lifting in their portfolios, plus they are a big part of the AI boom.
If they go pop there's going to be a lot of collateral damage.
Opinions?
It's still up 40% YTD, which would be pretty good news if you ignore the massive bubble/whatever that happened since then.
If it's part of a portfolio then I don't see any reason to worry as presumably you are in for the long haul anyway and day to day volatility doesn't matter, and you have other less risky holdings to provide a balance.
If it's part of a portfolio then I don't see any reason to worry as presumably you are in for the long haul anyway and day to day volatility doesn't matter, and you have other less risky holdings to provide a balance.
I'm not sure what SMCI do that other server rack builders don't / can't.
If they have been selling to China / Russia and consequentially lose all their contracts to USA / Europe who could take over those contracts?
May be time to start looking around at their smaller competitors.
Who will play the lead role in the movie, lol.
If they have been selling to China / Russia and consequentially lose all their contracts to USA / Europe who could take over those contracts?
May be time to start looking around at their smaller competitors.
Who will play the lead role in the movie, lol.
eyeslikealemur said:
I'm not sure what SMCI do that other server rack builders don't / can't.
If they have been selling to China / Russia and consequentially lose all their contracts to USA / Europe who could take over those contracts?
May be time to start looking around at their smaller competitors.
Who will play the lead role in the movie, lol.
Yep they’re just a Dell or Gateway or whatever other component aggregator/reseller.If they have been selling to China / Russia and consequentially lose all their contracts to USA / Europe who could take over those contracts?
May be time to start looking around at their smaller competitors.
Who will play the lead role in the movie, lol.
System integrator, now I remember the proper term.
Definitely a transitory thing rather than a long-term up-trend in server sales at this kind of level.
Indeed I thought servers all went cloudy, so who’s buying all these, and then who’s paying the new owners to use them?
Mr Whippy said:
Yep they’re just a Dell or Gateway or whatever other component aggregator/reseller.
System integrator, now I remember the proper term.
Definitely a transitory thing rather than a long-term up-trend in server sales at this kind of level.
Indeed I thought servers all went cloudy, so who’s buying all these, and then who’s paying the new owners to use them?
They really aren’t. System integrator, now I remember the proper term.
Definitely a transitory thing rather than a long-term up-trend in server sales at this kind of level.
Indeed I thought servers all went cloudy, so who’s buying all these, and then who’s paying the new owners to use them?
They build far more than just severs and PC’s.
Much of what they manufacture is complex systems on behalf of other tier 1 vendors, many of which you’d assume where the actual manufacturer of the product bearing their name
You do realise that a “cloud” is just the same old severs and storage, just owned by someone else?
Cloud is almost as miss used as a term as AI is.
Just because I can’t find that info after looking quite a lot, which of the big providers are they selling to?
Yes cloud I get.
It’s all just rooms with computers in, small rooms, or very big rooms. And ultimately storing files, but increasingly doing processing.
But then ultimately once everyone has their cloud/server/AI, who needs more?
Nvidia and SMCI are suggesting high growth for another half decade, but we’re still in a phase where all current AI setups are still in the capital intensive phase rather than making money.
For all we know we’ve over-saturated the big AI learning capacity needs and growth will now be in discrete processing running on local lightweight optimised models.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Surely we’ll need to see cash generation rather than cash burn before too much longer?
I appreciate lots of money is being made, but relative to the spend?
Yes cloud I get.
It’s all just rooms with computers in, small rooms, or very big rooms. And ultimately storing files, but increasingly doing processing.
But then ultimately once everyone has their cloud/server/AI, who needs more?
Nvidia and SMCI are suggesting high growth for another half decade, but we’re still in a phase where all current AI setups are still in the capital intensive phase rather than making money.
For all we know we’ve over-saturated the big AI learning capacity needs and growth will now be in discrete processing running on local lightweight optimised models.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Surely we’ll need to see cash generation rather than cash burn before too much longer?
I appreciate lots of money is being made, but relative to the spend?
It looks like they are a bit over $1bn profit on $9bn turnover this year, I did see suggestions that their % margin was dropping as they expanded but that would probably stabilise or recover. It sounds like a lot of cash to me but these numbers always do 
.
I think on some of the now-closed IM threads Adam was suggesting that they were very much in the lead on sticking these boxes together effectively and making systems that use less power which seems to be a big deal in all this computing now.
Given the level and speed of progress in the technology it seems unlikely that the market will ever become saturated and die back significantly, I would think it will always be a question of who can stay right at the front in terms of what they produce.
.I think on some of the now-closed IM threads Adam was suggesting that they were very much in the lead on sticking these boxes together effectively and making systems that use less power which seems to be a big deal in all this computing now.
Given the level and speed of progress in the technology it seems unlikely that the market will ever become saturated and die back significantly, I would think it will always be a question of who can stay right at the front in terms of what they produce.
Mr Whippy said:
Just because I can’t find that info after looking quite a lot, which of the big providers are they selling to?
Yes cloud I get.
It’s all just rooms with computers in, small rooms, or very big rooms. And ultimately storing files, but increasingly doing processing.
But then ultimately once everyone has their cloud/server/AI, who needs more?
Nvidia and SMCI are suggesting high growth for another half decade, but we’re still in a phase where all current AI setups are still in the capital intensive phase rather than making money.
For all we know we’ve over-saturated the big AI learning capacity needs and growth will now be in discrete processing running on local lightweight optimised models.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Surely we’ll need to see cash generation rather than cash burn before too much longer?
I appreciate lots of money is being made, but relative to the spend?
I’ll start by stating, I’m not an investor, but I have spent close to four decades in the IT industry over half of which has been working for tier 1 vendors ( manufacturers) and much of that working with cloud providers. Yes cloud I get.
It’s all just rooms with computers in, small rooms, or very big rooms. And ultimately storing files, but increasingly doing processing.
But then ultimately once everyone has their cloud/server/AI, who needs more?
Nvidia and SMCI are suggesting high growth for another half decade, but we’re still in a phase where all current AI setups are still in the capital intensive phase rather than making money.
For all we know we’ve over-saturated the big AI learning capacity needs and growth will now be in discrete processing running on local lightweight optimised models.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Surely we’ll need to see cash generation rather than cash burn before too much longer?
I appreciate lots of money is being made, but relative to the spend?
I’ll try to address all your points, but this is my view and others will vary
“Cloud” is an over used and term, it encompasses everything for Rackspace hosting mrs Miggins pie shop website, through SAP, Salesforce etc through to the hyperscalers. ( AWS, Azure, GCP etc).
Enterprise infrastructure is sold with a 3 to 5 year life span, that’s the same if you’re a bank or a cloud provider, so there is a constant churn of kit being refreshed.
Data is constantly growing and as they find new ways to use unstructured data, it in itself creates more data.
So, everyone may have a cloud, but everyone providing one is on a hamster wheel of upgrades and replacements.
Much or what is being sold now is touted as “AI ready” infrastructure.
People are over specifying and over investing on infrastructure ( which in my opinion) will never be used for the purposes it was purchased and by the time we do have enough actual AI work loads ( not the vast majority that claim to be AI the aren’t ) , it will be time to refresh it.
It’s a band waggon and everyone is jumping on board.
My original point was not that smci share price was justified, just that, from an engineering, manufacturing and OEM perspective, they are very different from the likes of Dell etc and much of what they do isn’t public domain, but would just come under OEM.
Sorry for the rambling, hope that makes sense.
t via the internets)?A big reason behind the drop is that their auditors (E&Y) resigned mid audit stating
“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management,"
“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management,"
Pretty odd that they are producing a lot of kit that people want, apparently at a decent profit, but can’t get their books to line up but that seems to be the issue. I guess there’s some fairly specific rules when you are counting in the billions each quarter.
They are currently running at about 3/5ths of the price they started the week at which in turn was half the price from earlier in the year. If they are still actually selling stuff at the same rate I’m saying this is a buying opportunity.
(but I may not know what I am talking about)
They are currently running at about 3/5ths of the price they started the week at which in turn was half the price from earlier in the year. If they are still actually selling stuff at the same rate I’m saying this is a buying opportunity.
(but I may not know what I am talking about)
Steve H said:
Pretty odd that they are producing a lot of kit that people want, apparently at a decent profit, but can’t get their books to line up but that seems to be the issue. I guess there’s some fairly specific rules when you are counting in the billions each quarter.
Theya are currently running at about 3/5ths of the price they started the week at which in turn was half the price from earlier in the year. If they are still actually selling stuff at the same rate I’m saying this is a buying opportunity.
(but I may not know what I am talking about)
Read the paper put out by Hindenberg Research this week. It’s a bit more than just not getting numbers to line up. Theya are currently running at about 3/5ths of the price they started the week at which in turn was half the price from earlier in the year. If they are still actually selling stuff at the same rate I’m saying this is a buying opportunity.
(but I may not know what I am talking about)
More accounting fraud, and evading US sanctions.
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